First snow of the season could be coming to Minnesota this weekend

Ah yes, it’s that time of year. The firsts of the season! While we’re still waiting for our first widespread frost in the Twin Cities and most of southern Minnesota, northern Minnesota may see the first flakes of snow this weekend.

The first ingredient to set the stage is some cold air. That’s something that’s been severely lacking this fall. Temperatures have been averaging 5 to 7 degrees above normal since Labor Day, which is a huge amount, and of course September was the warmest on record both statewide and in the Twin Cities.

We finally have some legitimate October chill coming in for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures Sunday afternoon may only be in the upper 30s in northeast Minnesota.

Sign up for our BREAKING WEATHER newsletters

What matters almost more however is having temperatures aloft be below freezing. By Sunday afternoon temperatures about 4,000 feet above the ground will be in the 20s in the Arrowhead region. That’s certainly cold enough for snow.

Of course we also need precipitation. There will be some light rains showers around, and with those conditions it’s entirely possible to see some snow showers up on the Gunflint Trail late Sunday.

Now, about half the models produce some snow showers and half do not. The most ‘aggressive’ models, the American and North American Models produce some snowfall:

But of course this time of the year, the ground is still pretty warm so getting it to stick is another story. When we look at the modeled "positive snow depth change," which in theory accounts for melting and compacting, you then see only a few pixels of 0.1 inches of snow on the NAM model:

So while it’s possible to see a brief coating on some grassy, or cold surfaces on the Gunflint/Arrowhead region, it’s more likely that they see some snow showers mixing with some light rain. In case you’re wondering, the average first measurable snowfall for the Gunflint is October 22, so we’re getting close to the time that it should occur.

In the Twin Cities of course we’re still a ways off for snow flakes but we do increasingly look likely to finally have our first frost, especially in the suburbs and outlying areas of southern Minnesota.

Either way, we know what’s coming eventually and most official forecasts agree that we’re likely headed toward a more "normal" winter ahead (at least by modern standards) with potentially above normal snowfall.

Related: NOAA's official winter outlook is coming; here's what it currently says for Minnesota