Chichester: Yankees once again in danger of repeating fatal flaw of recent failed seasons

The Yankees, considered by many to be the undisputed best team in baseball just weeks ago, have dropped 16 or their last 22 games, and there isn’t enough spackle in the Bronx to cover up the cracks that are forming on this roster.

After running out to a 49-21 record to start the season, the Bombers have run full speed in to a brick wall, falling out of first place in the AL East as questions intensify regarding the authenticity of their red-hot two months to begin the 2024 campaign.

Does this trend sound familiar? It should, as the Yanks have now run out to inspiring starts in each of their last three seasons, only to take considerable steps back before an eventual disappointing finish.

Back in 2022, the Yankees were drawing statistical comparisons to the unbeatable 1998 squad, as a 61-23 start had fans dreaming about an end to their painful title drought. The starting rotation looked like an dominant force behind Gerrit Cole, All-Star Nestor Cortes, and a thriving Jameson Taillon, while Aaron Judge was en route to a historic 62-home run season. Instead, the Yanks finished under .500 over their last 78 games ( via Seth Rothman of the YES Network ), the rotation outside of Cole came back down to earth, Judge seemed to tire after chasing history, and they were swept away in the ALCS.

One year later, after a 36-25 start to the year, with Judge threatening to outpace his absurd stats from a season prior, the Yanks flopped after Judge went down with a toe injury, and the Bombers missed the playoffs after posting their worst record in over three decades.

Are the Yankees on course to follow this same trajectory in 2024? The signs are there, and they are troubling.

Back in 2022, the sentiment from the front office was that the Yankees were much like the team of the first half of the season than the one that finished, so they locked up Judge, signed Carlos Rodon to replace Taillon, and essentially called it a day. After the self-proclaimed “disaster” of 2023, Brian Cashman vehemently defended the Yankee operation, made a splash for Juan Soto while adding Alex Verdugo and Marcus Stroman, and here we are.

So, as the Yankees face another major slide, losing 15 of 20 games for the third straight year after doing so only three times in the previous 16 years ( via River Ave Blues ), are they doomed to repeat the fates of the 2022 and 2023 teams? Sure, Soto is in the mix this time around, giving the Yanks another dynamic bat alongside Judge. But LeMahieu is a shell of himself, still batting below .200, while Alex Verdugo and Anthony Volpe are mired in prolonged slumps. On the pitching side, Luis Gil’s strong start Sunday night was an outlier compared to his production over the past month, while the bullpen continues to be a major problem without any reliable strikeout arms.

So, how will the Yankees spin this recent slide? Based on comments from Aaron Boone, the same way they always have. The season is long, there are many peaks and valleys, and they have the people in the locker room to turn things around. It’s what was heard in 2022 and 2023 (Cashman pointed to a "depleted" team down the stretch of 2022, and a record in the second half that didn't equate to the talent on the roster), followed up by outward belief that those teams were much more like their hot starts than their cold finishes, and it’s on them to show their full potential when October arrives. At what point do those in charge see the pattern they’ve created and take a different path?

Let’s say the Yankees don’t turn things around, and either flop in a Wild Card Series or miss the playoffs again entirely. Trade deadline moves that are certain to come, like bullpen upgrades or a corner infielder, aren’t enough to mask the litany of issues that have surfaced, and the team’s promising start is wasted. Will Cashman and Boone point to Giancarlo Stanton’s calf injury, Anthony Rizzo’s arm injury, or Clarke Schmidt’s lat injury as reasons why they couldn’t bring it all together in 2024, or that LeMahieu’s late start to the season due to his foot injury was why he couldn’t get it going, and they expect him to be the LeMahieu of old in 2025? That sentiment may infuriate fans, but it could very well be the message from up high if that’s how the rest of 2024 unfolds.

Now, let’s play out another scenario that is all-too familiar. Let’s say the Yankees, whether it be in August or September, rattle off a prolonged winning streak where everything actually comes together, a playoff spot is secured, and the extended malaise they are in right now is somewhat forgotten, only for the team to once again flop in the playoffs. Will leadership point to that brief turnaround as what they believe is the true makeup of this team? We saw it in 2021, when 13 straight wins disguised an otherwise painfully mediocre team, leading to marginal upgrades throughout the roster. Can any fan confidently say that a disappointing finish in 2024 won’t lead to a flashy Juan Soto contract and nothing more in terms of upgrades?

That is months away, but the script is already playing out like recent history, where the Yankees conveniently point to a stretch of the season where all was well, consider that the true nature of the team, and dangle a shiny new acquisition [like a Judge contract or Soto trade] in front of fans’ faces to hopefully quell concerns about the rest of the roster’s question marks. Then, as the season plays out, the question marks show themselves, the team falters, and the cycle is rinsed and repeated.

The Yankees, after initially seeming like a new team with a new identity, are in danger of copying that crippling cycle once again.