Lowering expectations for Bills in 2024

Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - During a recent appearance on the "Extra Point Show" on WGR, our Buffalo Bills beat reporter Sal Capaccio asked me a very interesting question: What were my expectations for the 2024 Bills.

I told him they were not as high as they were going into training camp each of the last three seasons.

When the Bills showed up to training camp the last three years, I was convinced they were good enough to win the Super Bowl. I don't have that same feeling right now heading into the 2024 season.

There were just too many key player losses this offseason, which has left me with a number of questions and concerns.

This doesn't mean the Bills can't win the Super Bowl this season. As long as Josh Allen is their quarterback, anything is possible.

Here is what I think of the on-paper version of the Bills this year: They are a playoff team, no question about that. I still think they are the team to beat in the AFC East, but they won't walk to the title like they did in 2021 and 2022.

I do expect a three-team race with the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, but the Bills will eventually come out on top. After that, who knows?

I reserve the right to change my opinion once the Bills start playing real games, not the preseason version. Perhaps my concerns will prove to be unfounded.

But the Bills moved on from or lost a number of important players since the 2023 season came to an end. Quite a bit of talent, a ton of NFL experience, and a good deal of leadership has left town.

If you need a refresher, the offense lost its top-two receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.Those two combined for 608 catches for 8,102 yards and 64 touchdowns over the last four regular seasons. The wide receivers room has been overhauled, so it will take some time for Allen to develop chemistry and trust with this group.

Only one wide receiver (Khalil Shakir) has caught a pass from Allen in a regular season game.

The anchor of the offensive line, center Mitch Morse, was released and is now with the Jacksonville Jaguars with Davis. Morse held that job since 2019 and made 77 starts as a member of the Bills.

That means Connor McGovern will have to make the transition from guard to center. McGovern has just one NFL start at center, but did play the position in high school and for a short time in college.

That also leaves McGovern's starting spot from last season open. The leading candidate for the job is David Edwards, who had 45 starts during his time with the Las Vegas Raiders.

With new starters at two spots, the line will need time to gel.

There are even more questions on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bills boasted one of the NFL's best starting secondaries under head coach Sean McDermott, but three-fifths of that group (I'm including nickel corner Taron Johnson as a starter) are now gone. For the first time since 2016, the Bills will go to training camp without Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde as their starting safeties. Cornerback Tre'Davious White, who joined the Bills in 2017 along with Poyer and Hyde, is also gone.

White, Poyer and Hyde combined for 284 games started in the regular season and 56 interceptions. Those are some huge losses to overcome in the same season.

A strong pass rush can be the best friend for a secondary, but there are questions up front too.

Leonard Floyd was a tremendous pickup last year, and led the Bills with 10.5 sacks. However, he bolted in free agency to the San Francisco 49ers.

The Bills really need Von Miller to return to his pre-injury form from 2022. If the offense takes a step back this season, I'm not confident the defense will be good enough to pick up the slack.

I mentioned the division earlier, but as far as the conference goes, obviously the Kansas City Chiefs are still the gold standard, and are showing no signs of slowing down.

Cincinnati gets Joe Burrow back, which should put the Bengals back in the Super Bowl contender discussion.

The Baltimore Ravens are still in the mix, while the Houston Texans made a statement last season thanks to an impressive rookie campaign from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Need I remind you, the Texans added Diggs, which should make their offense even more dangerous.

I know its a bad idea to ever believe in the Los Angeles Chargers, but I do think the choice of Jim Harbaugh as head coach will make a tremendous difference. I think Harbaugh will do for the Chargers what he did for the 49ers.

There is a school of thought that the Bills flying under the radar is a good thing. After being in the spotlight the last three years, maybe it will be easier for them this time around.

We will see how this all plays out.