Buffalo Bills training camp will shape 53-man roster: Here is Sal's prediction

If you pay attention to the consensus, the Buffalo Bills, winners of the last four AFC East division titles, are certainly not a heavy favorite to win a fifth straight, something no Bills team has ever done.

Some prognosticators have the Bills finishing second behind Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. Others believe they might even slip to third behind the Jets and Miami Dolphins, and if that were to happen, given the strength of the rest of the conference, Josh Allen and company probably would miss the playoffs for the first time since the quarterback’s rookie year in 2018.

Given the turnover in Buffalo’s roster, it’s understandable why some have lost faith in Sean McDermott’s team, and it feels like a moving target when trying to pinpoint where this season will go. You don’t say goodbye to players like Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde and expect everything is going to be fine.

However, while it’s certainly possible the Bills could take a step in the wrong direction in their never-ending pursuit of a Super Bowl title, they could also just as easily win yet another division crown if they enjoy good health, the new roster pieces come together under new coordinators Joe Brady and Bobby Babich, and of course, Allen does what Allen does.

“We’re not content with being where we are and you’ve constantly got to reinvent yourself, evolve both schematically and roster wise, trying to stay ahead of it,” McDermott said back in the spring. “When people want you to zig, you zag and I think that’s the importance of evolving in this situation.”

Here’s my annual pre-training camp positional breakdown of the team as it returns to St. John Fisher University, including which 53 players I think will be on the Opening Day roster:

Quarterback

Starter: Josh Allen.

Reserves: Mitchell Trubisky.

▶ Sal’s take: The Bills have been incredibly fortunate on the injury front with Allen who has started 98 consecutive games counting the playoffs, the longest active streak among QBs. He just turned 28 so he’s in the prime of his career and after four straight 4,000-yard seasons, there’s no reason to think he’ll suddenly struggle, but there is no doubt this will be a challenge trying to work with an almost entirely new group of wide receivers.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Allen, Trubisky.

Running back

Starter: James Cook.

Reserves: Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Reggie Gilliam (FB), Darrynton Evans, Frank Gore. Jr.

▶ Sal’s take: Cook logged 281 touches in his second season after just 120 as a rookie. That was a huge increase in workload for a player who didn’t even have 281 touches across the entirety of his college career at Georgia. Can he continue at that same pace? He may not need to if Johnson can build on some of the contributions he made last year after he took over the third-down role from Latavius Murray. Davis will be interesting to watch. He was a physical player in college and the fourth-round pick could steal some snaps from Johnson on third downs and in short yardage if he can prove capable of grinding out tough yards, and being a reliable pass protector and pass catcher.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Cook, Johnson, Davis, Gilliam.

Wide receiver

Starters: Curtis Samuel, Marques Valdes-Scantling, Khali Shakir.

Reserves: Keon Coleman, Chase Claypool, Mack Hollins, KJ Hamler, Andy Isabella, Justin Shorter, Tyrell Shavers, Bryan Thompson, Lawrence Keys, Xavier Johnson.

▶ Sal’s take: Obviously, there is concern over losing 152 combined catches in 2023 from Diggs and Davis, and that will put some immediate pressure on second-round pick Coleman who, fairly or not, will be looked upon as the heir to Diggs’ throne as a No. 1 WR. I don’t think he’s ready for that yet, so it will fall to Shakir to take another step forward with increased playing time, and someone from the veteran group of Samuel, Valdes-Scantling and Claypool to replace the bulk of those targets, catches and yards. All have varying skill sets which could prove interesting for Brady as he develops his offense in what could be a diverse passing game.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Samuel, Valdes-Scantling, Shakir, Coleman, Hollins, Claypool.

Tight end

Starter: Dalton Kincaid.

Reserves: Dawson Knox, Quintin Morris, Tre McKitty, Zach Davidson.

▶ Sal’s take: Kincaid had the best season of any tight end in Bills history as a rookie, and the expectation in some circles is that rather than any of the WRs, he will be the new No. 1 target and weapon for Allen. For that to happen, though, Brady has to get Kincaid open down the field because too many of his receptions in 2023 were low impact plays close to the line of scrimmage. Knox, who has battled injury and inconsistency and is being paid way too much to have those issues, appears set for a role as a blocker who will be utilized in certain two-tight end packages.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Kincaid, Knox, Morris.

Interior offensive line

Starters: Connor McGovern (C), David Edwards (LG), O’Cyrus Torrence (RG).

Reserves: Alec Anderson (G), Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (G-C), Kevin Jarvis (G), Keaton Bills (G), Will Clapp (G-C), Gunner Britton (G), Mike Edwards (G).

▶ Sal’s take: The Bills started the same five players up front last season which is a rare occurrence in the NFL. but they willingly broke up that continuity and upset two positions by cutting Morse to save money in March. That means McGovern moves to center, and there will be a competition at LG where Edwards will begin camp in the lead spot. Van Pran-Granger, a fifth-round rookie, has a chance to make a statement with a strong camp at both guard and center. If he proves adept at center, that could entice the Bills to shift McGovern back to LG, or there’s a chance Van Pran-Granger simply beats out Edwards.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Van Pran-Granger, Anderson.

Offensive tackle

Starters: Dion Dawkins (LT), Spencer Brown (RT).

Reserves: Ryan Van Demark, La’el Collins, Tylan Grable, Travis Clayton, Tommy Doyle, Richard Gouraige.

▶ Sal’s take: Brown underwent yet another offseason surgery, this one on his shoulder, so he was limited throughout OTAs and his progress bears watching. That’s likely why the Bills took a flier on Collins who sat out all of 2023 but has put together a solid career. Van Demark was with the team all of last year but he looks to be nothing more than a backup candidate. Doyle is still recovering from knee surgery and will start on PUP, while draft picks Grable and Clayton are extreme longshots.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Dawkins, Brown, Collins, Van Demark.

Defensive tackle

Starters: Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones.

Reserves: Austin Johnson, DeShawn Williams, DeWayne Carter, Eli Ankou, Branson Deen, Gable Steveson.

▶ Sal’s take: Re-signing Jones in free agency was a priority, but now at 32 years old, he has to prove that he can hold up and continue to produce after missing two-thirds of 2023 with a torn pectoral muscle. Oliver had his best season as a pro with 51 tackles and 9.5 sacks, both career highs. He and Jones have to be stout against the run, but they must be able to push the pocket to help a group of edge rushers who have lots to prove. In Johnson and Williams the Bills have veteran depth, and that should enable them to ease Carter, their third-round pick, into the mix.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Williams, Carter.

Edge rusher

Starters: A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau.

Reserves: Von Miller, Dawuane Smoot, Casey Toohill, Javon Solomon, Kingsley Jonathan, Kameron Cline, Rondell Bothroyd, David Ugwoegbu.

▶ Sal’s take: Rousseau heads into his fourth season and the time has come for him to be a difference maker because so far, he really hasn’t been. There have been flashes, but not nearly enough truly disruptive play, especially as a pass rusher as he has 17 sacks in his first three seasons. Epenesa re-signed in free agency after a nice 2023 season, but like Rousseau, the Bills need more, especially with Miller being a complete unknown at this point. There will be a very competitive battle for the No. 4 and 5 spots between free agent signees Toohill and Smoot, returning practice squad players Jonathan and Cline, and fifth-round pick Solomon.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Rousseau, Epenesa, Miller, Smoot, Solomon.

Linebacker

Starters: Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard

Reserves: Dorian Williams, Baylon Spector, Nicholas Morrow, Deion Jones, Edefuan Ulofoshio, Shayne Simon, Joe Andreessen.

▶ Sal’s take: Bernard was a remarkably pleasant surprise last year as he took over for Tremaine Edmunds and arguably gave the Bills a better season than any of the five Edmunds produced as he came up with six turnovers. The return of Milano is vital, but he’s now 30 years old coming off a broken leg, so you have to wonder if he’ll still have the same explosiveness that has marked his career. If the Bills favor their draft picks like Williams, Spector and rookie Ulofoshio, then Morrow and Jones may be fighting for one spot.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, Ulofoshio.

Cornerback

Starters: Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson (NCB).

Reserves: Kaiir Elam, JaMarcus Ingram, Kyron Brown, Cam Lewis, Daequan Hardy, Te’Cory Couch, Keni-H Lovely.

▶ Sal’s take: Douglas is locked in on one side and Benford probably is at the other outside spot, but Benford has never been able to stay healthy so nothing is a given. Elam appears ready to take a step forward if the OTAs were any indication, and if he has a big camp, the 2022 first-rounder could supplant Benford. Johnson is one of the best nickel CBs in the league. As for depth, Lewis’ ability to play outside and slot corner, plus a little safety and special teams, guarantees him a place. Hardy, a sixth-round pick, could earn a spot if he proves to be a capable return man.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Douglas, Benford, T. Johnson, Elam, Lewis, Hardy.

Safety

Starters: Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards.

Reserves: Cole Bishop, Damar Hamlin, Dee Delaney, Kendall Williamson.

▶ Sal’s take: A huge transition is happening with Poyer and Hyde gone, ending their seven-year partnership. Rapp was re-signed to fill Hyde’s spot and Edwards was signed away from the Chiefs to take over for Poyer. Bishop, a second-round pick, will learn both positions and would need a great camp to steal a starting spot, while Hamlin had a productive spring and is probably locked into the No. 4 spot.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Rapp, Edwards, Bishop, Hamlin.

Special teams

Starters: Tyler Bass (K), Sam Martin (P), Reid Ferguson (LS).

Reserve: Jack Browning (P).

▶ Sal’s take: Bass just signed a hefty contract extension and he will be under pressure to live up to it after a lousy finish to his 2023 when he missed three of five field goals in the postseason. Martin is going to have to win a camp battle against the rookie, Browning, who punted at San Diego State and had better career numbers than Matt Araiza whom the Bills drafted in 2022. One of the determining factors might be which punter proves to be the holder Bass trusts more. Ferguson just keeps going as the longest-tenured player on the team because he performs almost flawlessly year after year.

▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Bass, Martin, Ferguson.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out every other Friday during the offseason, please follow this link:https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast