Harris is having a moment but Trump isn't out of the race yet

• Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to expand her lead over Donald Trump in the coming days.
• If history holds, Harris should receive a slight convention-related bump.
• But Trump could easily erase her newfound lead.

Democrats are basking in joy after a four-day party in Chicago. Vice President Kamala Harris is not satisfied with the good vibes alone.

"Now listen, we've got 75 days to go," Harris told reporters as she left the United Center on Thursday night after delivering her rousing acceptance speech. "Maybe for better and for worse, that's the way I am. That was good, now we've got to move on."

Party leaders repeatedly reminded Democrats throughout the week that for all the positivity coursing through the party, harder times are ahead.

"Kamala Harris had a spectacular week, culminating a remarkable month," David Axelrod, a former senior Obama White House advisor, wrote on X. "But this is a closely divided country and the race now will be a pitched struggle for every inch of terrain in the battleground states."

Trump tried to reclaim some attention Friday by touting an endorsement by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was running as an independent candidate. Kennedy's polling had crashed over the summer, but Trump hopes that in an extremely close race, the vaccine skeptic's supporters would push him over the edge in key states.

"This is good news for President Trump and his campaign — plain and simple," Tony Fabrizio, Trump's chief pollster, said in a statement released by the campaign.

Kennedy vowed to try to take his name off the ballot in 10 swing states, though it remains uncertain if he'll be able to do so in every state. As the election law expert Derek T. Muller pointed out on X, Wisconsin only removes a candidate's name if they die — meaning some sort of zombie candidacy could continue.

Both major candidates are expected to return to the campaign trail in the days ahead before their first debate on September 10 in Philadelphia. It will be the first time Harris has ever met Trump and the first debate since President Joe Biden's disastrous June performance altered the race.

Republicans hope the debate will force Harris to confront her record. Harris has raced toward the center on key issues like healthcare and fracking in an attempt to move beyond the progressive policy stances she took during her 2020 Democratic primary campaign.

Trump's campaign has tried to goad Harris into a sit-down interview, where she would no doubt be questioned about her changing views. Thus far, she's focused on campaigning around the country and taking advantage of the free media attention her crowded rallies generate.

If history holds, Harris' momentum could stretch even further. Candidates traditionally receive a post-convention bump in polls. RealClearPolitics' latest polling average found that Harris has a narrow 1.5 percentage-point lead in national polls. It's a sea change from Biden's consistent struggles but far from an insurmountable lead. In 1988, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead in late July before Vice President George H.W. Bush overtook him and won the election.

Trump's advisors have tried to reassure him about her polling bump, telling him this is her "honeymoon" period. But so far, Trump has struggled to stick to a consistent attack on her. He's further reverted to form by undermining his message with personal attacks, like claiming she's not really Black, and feuding with fellow Republicans. On Thursday night, Trump tried to quash his beef with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp in the hope of moving beyond a renewed feud that threatened to derail his chances in a key state.

The former president has also shaken up his campaign leadership, bringing his former 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski back into the official fold. Trump wants to recapture the magic that powered his 2016 upset, but it's not clear how successful that will be if he continues to stray from his message.

One of the biggest concerns for Harris is that Trump still leads on some of the metrics that are often fundamental to the race. Biden remains fairly unpopular, and a recent Gallup poll found that 73% of registered voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

There have been some signs that Harris has narrowed Trump's strength on the economy, but a recent ABC News-Washington Post-Ipsos poll found he still held a 9 percentage-point advantage over Harris when voters were asked whom they trusted to better handle the economy. Trump also had a 10-point advantage on immigration. The same poll found a significant number of voters view Harris more favorably than Trump.

It's also worth noting that because of the sheer number of Americans who vote before Election Day, neither campaign can wait until November 5 to peak. Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state, starts early voting on September 16, less than a week after the first debate.