Russia may have lost a rare drone over Ukraine — and it could be an intelligence win for the West

• Russia appears to have lost one of its new S-70 Okhotnik (Hunter) drones over the weekend.
• The suspected drone crashed in eastern Ukraine, but the cause is still unknown.
• Losing one would be a blow for Russia, but it could also be a big intelligence win for the West.

An aircraft believed to be a new heavy Russian combat drone crashed in Ukraine over the weekend. Losing one would not only be a major blow for Moscow; it could be a significant intelligence win for Kyiv and its NATO partners, including the US.

Russia hasn't built very many of the S-70 Okhotnik-B (Hunter) drones, which made their combat debut during the ongoing Ukraine war.

Video footage circulated across social media on Saturday showing the suspected S-70 plummeting out of the sky while leaving a trail of smoke in its wake, an indication that the aircraft had suffered damage of some kind. Photos later showed the aircraft's wreckage on the ground.

The wreckage of the aircraft was discovered in Kostyantynivka, a city in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region just a few miles behind the front lines. It's unclear what type of mission the aircraft was on when it crashed.

The exact cause of the crash is unknown, but there's been speculation about what may have happened. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has commented publicly on the incident.

Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank wrote in a Sunday assessment that some Russian sources said Moscow accidentally shot down the S-70 in a friendly-fire incident. Open-source intelligence accounts on social media amplified this theory , saying the drone was shot down by one of Russia's few Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets .

As to whether the downing of the aircraft was an accident or intentional, the ISW analysts wrote that other Russian sources suggested the drone operators lost control of the aircraft and shot it down on purpose to prevent Ukraine from gaining access to the system's advanced technology.

Business Insider is unable to immediately verify any of the theories, but Ukraine, based on photos taken at the crash site, has access to the wreckage.

Samuel Bendett, an advisor with the Center for Naval Analyses who's an expert on drones and Russian defense issues, said the apparent loss of the S-70 was a "significant win" for Western intelligence given that it has been Moscow's flagship drone project for more than a decade.

Photos captured at the crash site show Ukrainian troops already examining the suspected S-70 wreckage, a scenario Russia — or any military — would probably prefer to avoid with new and sensitive technology.

"Presumably it has top resources and investments, materials and products, including microelectronics and other key components," Bendett told BI.

Bendett said NATO countries, which are ahead of Russia in unmanned combat aerial vehicle development, were probably working on their own designs. Getting ahold of this aircraft could provide insight into its workings, as well as its weaknesses and how best to counter it. Additionally, because there aren't many S-70s, losing one could set Moscow's program back, though Bendett said it "will not stop its ongoing experimentation with such designs."

The S-70 "Hunter," which looks similar in shape to the US military's RQ-170 Sentinel built by Lockheed Martin, has been under development since the early 2010s and took its first flight in 2019. Only two of the jet-powered drones — which weigh some 20 tons and have a 65-foot wingspan — are thought to have been built .

Both Ukraine and Russia have relied heavily on drones to wage war, though they've primarily employed mass-produced, cheap drones instead of heavier and more expensive systems.

Bendett said Ukraine and Russia were fielding drones with impressive ranges that could cause extensive damage and issues for air defenses as the S-70 was intended for, but some other drones could perform these tasks at a fraction of the price.

He added that this posed a dilemma for Moscow. Should it continue developing the S-70, even though the few it has would be at great risk, or spend more resources on long-range attack drones that are much cheaper? The answer remains to be seen.