UW professor analyzes how shooting of former President Trump could impact political environment

A political science professor at the University of Washington analyzed how the deadly shooting at former President Donald Trump’s rally could impact the political environment.

As of Sunday afternoon, the FBI said it’s investigating Saturday’s shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania as an attempted assassination of the former president and an act of domestic terror.

The bureau said it does not have a motive, as of Sunday afternoon.

Investigators said they have identified the shooter, who was fatally shot by Secret Service agents, as Thomas Crooks, 20, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania.

One person was killed, while three others were injured, including former President Donald Trump, where CBS video shows Trump touching his ear and then crouching to the ground. Some blood could be seen on his face.

In a statement, former President Trump said, “I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin. Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening.”

The Secret Service said former President Trump is now safe and he was checked at a local hospital before leaving the event.

KIRO 7 News spoke with James Long, a political science professor at the University of Washington, about Saturday’s deadly shooting.

Long said the United States has a history of violence connected to politics.

“The United States has long had very very violent politics, violent campaigns, threats and attempts against sitting presidents or candidates for office. Obviously, your viewers will think of the 1960s and 1970s as a very traumatic period with the assassination of Robert and John Kennedy as well as Martin Luther King,” he said. “The last time a president was shot was Ronald Reagan in 1981.”

President Ronald Reagan’s polling numbers rose after he had been shot in an attempted assassination, Long said.

We asked him if voters could expect a similar situation with former President Trump.

“Reagan’s numbers did go up pretty quickly. That sort of faded because of then how of voters thought about Ronald Reagan, and thankfully he was safe. That then was about the economy and other things that happened after that. So, I don’t think by the time he ran for reelection in 1984, I don’t think the fact he had been shot and survived played a role in voters’ minds at all,” he responded.

While the shooting happened during a political campaign rally ahead of the general election, Long said the deadly shooting also touches on another issue.

“One way to look at this is a political event, but another way to look at it is in the context of mass shootings that are occurring at large public events like political rallies, which unfortunately become too common in the United States,” he said.

Long said he does not believe this will change any of the polarization of politics that many Americans feel, however, he believes this could influence voter turnout for Republicans.

“I think it might affect turnout among the Trump or Republican base, for those who might have felt somewhat disengaged from the process or maybe worried about his legal liabilities and didn’t feel that up to turning out. Now, I think this might be a motivating tool to really get the MAGA base to turn out, particularly, around where it actually occurred in Pennsylvania, which is a very important state for both candidates to try to win,” he shared.

“I think for our larger body of politics, I don’t see this really changing anybody’s opinions, changing anybody’s minds. I’m very skeptical of any kind of deep national unity or coming together,” he added.

For the Democrats, Long said this also impacts Biden’s campaign, which reportedly canceled his campaign rallies and appearances this week in the wake of the possible assassination of former President Trump.

“I do think on the question, whether or not if he (President Biden) should step aside, I think that question, which has been going until the event last night, I think Biden has bought himself some time here. It’ll be interesting to see if this is a moment where the democrats, who had previously been somewhat divided on whether or not to support Biden’s candidacy, really rally around the president in the hopes of having a unified ticket or unified voice or whether or not, this event somehow kind of underscores the issues that voters might have with Biden, that he’s weak or he’s old or he’s not capable of leading a country through a crisis like this or a future crisis, but I think it’s too soon to tell, but it’ll be definitely an interesting few weeks to watch over the next few weeks,” he said.