EXCLUSIVE — A Republican House district in California could wind up more competitive than anyone thought it would be, according to a new poll obtained by the Washington Examiner.
Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA), a two-term representative of California’s 45th Congressional District, may face trouble holding on to her seat, according to the poll. Her challenger, Democrat Derek Tran, is in a strong position against the incumbent, according to Tulchin Research, a Democratic consulting firm that describes itself as working for “Democratic candidates for elected ballot office.”
When asked about each candidate by name, Tran received 41% of the support among likely voters compared to Steel’s 42%.
The poll also indicates Tran is making progress with undecided voters. When those polled were given information about both candidates' messaging, Tran polled 13 points ahead of Steel. His support grew by double digits to 52%, while Steel’s fell to 39%.
"The data shows that voters are fed up with Michelle Steel’s record of corruption and voting to restrict women’s reproductive rights," Orrin Evans, a spokesman for Tran's campaign, told the Washington Examiner. "Army veteran Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, is ready to flip this seat and get to work for Southern California families."
Much of the district, home to a substantial Vietnamese population, centers on Orange County’s “Little Saigon.” Steel was supported by 46% of Vietnamese voters, as compared to Tran’s 43% of support, despite Tran's identity as a Vietnamese-American.
Steel's campaign questioned the polling, with a spokesman from her campaign telling the Washington Examiner, "This poll is about as real as the plot of Dune 2 . Did Derek bother to mention which of the job titles he tested polled the best?"
"Tran's campaign knows they had a sad, weak showing in the primary," Sam Oh, a Steel consultant, told the Washington Examiner. "Ever since, Tran has been floundering and clamoring for attention and relevancy. A biased push poll and hiring a clown for acting lessons won't change anything for him. This is barely worth a shrug."
The National Republican Congressional Committee blasted the "cooked" poll as a product of Washington, D.C. , trying to prop up Tran in a race he has no chance of winning.
"Lackluster, 'not in the top tier' candidate Derek Tran needed acting lessons from a professional clown, barely won his primary against an opponent with zero money, and ran two polls to figure out what to call himself," NRCC spokesman Ben Petersen said. "While D.C. Democrats prop up another sacrificial lamb with this cooked poll, Rep. Steel is full speed ahead fighting for lower taxes and safe streets."
Still, the poll shows a shift in the inland Orange County district. The district was created in 2022, but a mixed bag of Republicans and Democrats have represented the cities that encompass it over time. The district has a heavy Asain-American population after redistricting. Cook Political Report currently labels the district as “Leans Republican.”
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Some predict control of the House of Representatives could come down to a few races in California. Of the 16 House districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020, but that are currently represented by a Republican, five are in California. In 2020, Biden won Steel’s district by 6 points.
“It’s going to come down to these toss-ups, and Democrats would have to win around two-thirds of them to take the majority,” said Erin Covey, the House analyst at Cook Political Report for California House races.
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