California woes deepen for Newsom as polls drop

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is not alone in the polling and approval woes. Newsom’s polling numbers have dropped from an all-time high of 64% three years ago. Around 44% of Californians say they approve of Newsom’s performance, but general approval of the state legislature hovers at 40%. When asked specifically about their own legislators, general approval rises to 41%. The numbers do not really change when adjusted for who would be a likely voter.

California governors have a history of low approval rates as they prepare to leave office. This mirrors the trend of other large states where governors get the national spotlight and use it to catapult themselves into national politics. Fellow California Democrat Jerry Brown had strong support in his early years as governor, but two failed efforts to become president and other deviations away from the office dragged down his popularity when voters even rejected his run for Senate in 1982. Brown’s father also suffered a similar fate when he ran for a third term in 1966 and lost to Reagan.

Newsom's low approval ratings coincide with overall low confidence in the state. The Public Policy Institute of California found that “close to seven in ten (68%) expect bad economic times in the next year — similar to the last two years (69% bad times in June 2023; 68% in July 2022 ).” Crime rates are rising, inflation costs are hurting families, and Newsom has largely failed to follow through on promises he made to win the governorship in 2018.

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Across partisan groups, a third or more name cost of living, economy, and inflation as the top issue, with housing costs mentioned the second most often. Democrats (22%) and independents (20%), however, are more likely to say housing than Republicans (11%). Data show that the cost of living in California is 38% higher than the national average. Housing is 97% higher than the national average, while utilities are 22% higher.

These numbers could further doom Newsom’s future presidential aspirations. Newsom was rumored to be a candidate for the Democratic nomination and is widely expected to run against Vice President Kamala Harris following the end of the Biden administration. His lackluster performance will have to contend against many young rising stars within the party, such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI). People just do not like the way his government is handling things. How can we trust Newsom to run the country if he cannot even get the approval of his state?