This Will Be America’s Largest State in 2050

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For the first time since 2020, California’s population grew in 2023. The most populous state added just over 67,000 people in 2023, or 0.17%. While the growth rate is very small, it ends a three-year trend of significant population loss -- nearly half a million residents from 2019 to 2022, according to Census data -- and officials hope it marks the first change back to normal population trend.

Looking 26 years into the future, can California indeed maintain its top spot as the most populous state? It is no secret, after all, that Florida and Texas have been making significant population gains.

To determine which state will be America’s largest in 2050, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the National Population Projections published by the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Services and updated just this July 1. The 25 largest states are ranked here by their projected 2050 population from largest to smallest.

We added snapshot information about the states to provide perhaps some context as to possible population growth trends. Gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ; seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate figures came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ; and median home values came from the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey -- the national value is $320,000.

While the top four states are projected to keep their ranking, some are growing faster than others. Meanwhile, Georgia jumps to the fifth spot from eighth today, with a near 20% population growth from 2020, unseating Pennsylvania, which is projected to drop from fifth to sixth most populous, with a nearly 3% population decline. (Also see: This Will Be America’s Smallest State in 2040 .)

Similarly, North Carolina, with a 17% projected population growth from 2020 to 2050, is projected to move from ninth largest to seventh largest. Illinois, meanwhile, is projected to have a 9% population decline and move from sixth most populous to eighth most populous, and Ohio, with a near 3% population decline, from seventh to ninth.

Why are we covering this

Population projections are important for people and governments as they often determine attraction of a place, policies, and more. For example, in many health care areas, including Medicaid, the size and makeup of a projected population can determine current and future policy and budget. In politics, some states can stand to lose congressional seats, while others gain them. In economics, environment, infrastructure -- many policies and plans depend on what the population is projected to be.

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