Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2006. As of February 2024, 47% of registered voters in California were Democratic, 24% were Republican, and the remainder were registered with a minor party or had no party preference.
KTVU political analyst Brian Sobel said in July 2024, “Garvey’s campaign has not matured at all,” adding, “Steve Garvey, down the stretch, would really have to turn on the after-burners to cut into the Schiff lead.” Q2 2024 reports filed with the Federal Election Commission showed Garvey outraised Schiff for the first time in the race. Pollster Angie Friedman told the California Globe in July 2024, “It may be a simple outraising of funds, but that is also still a victory.” Friedman added, “Not many recent GOP Senate candidates in California can claim that…”
Schiff was a state senator from 1996 to 2000 and has served in the U.S. House since 2001. Schiff is running on his record in Congress, citing his role as impeachment manager in Donald Trump’s impeachment and his efforts to lower prescription drug costs and build affordable housing. Many news outlets, including Politico and Desert Sun, said Schiff’s ads against Garvey during the primary were a successful attempt to boost Republican support for Garvey, and that Garvey was Schiff’s preferred general election opponent. Schiff called Garvey “too conservative for California.”
Garvey, who played professional baseball for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, presented himself as a centrist candidate, tweeting in June 2024, “From day one I’ve said I never played for Republicans, Democrats, or Independents—I played for all the fans.” Garvey campaign adviser Matt Shupe said, “It’s not like we’re avoiding the Republican brand. It’s that we are having Steve Garvey be defined by Steve Garvey and nobody else.” Garvey said he is running a “common sense campaign” and that Schiff “used his position on the House Intelligence Committee to lie to the American people.” Garvey’s campaign said it is “focused on quality-of-life issues, public safety, and education.”
The outcome of this race will affect the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2025.
Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four. As of May 2024, eight members of the U.S. Senate had announced they were not running for re-election.
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