If the General Assembly were a sports event, here’s what the halftime report would say

It’s halftime at the 2024 General Assembly. If this were the Super Bowl, we’d denote this year’s session as General Assembly MMXXIV.

We’d also be bringing out the analysts to review the first half and look ahead to the second half. Let’s remember that at the most recent Super Bowl, San Francisco led at halftime even though Kansas City went on to win the game after Taylor Swift made the winning play in overtime. At least, that’s how I remember it, although maybe I wasn’t paying close enough attention.

I have been paying attention to the General Assembly, though, so here’s my halftime report, sports-style.

Key play: Lucas blocks the arena deal

If this were sports, this is the play we’d be replaying over and over: Senate Finance Committee Chair Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, stuffed Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed sports arena in Alexandria by refusing to even bring the bill up for a vote. As I detailed in Wednesday’s column , this doesn’t mean the arena bill is dead. The House passed its version, which is now pending before the Senate — but will have to get through Lucas’ committee. Her move has nothing to do with a philosophical objection to the state helping finance a sports facility. This was all about leverage, and trying to extract a higher price from Youngkin in the form of support for her priorities and the priorities of other Democrats in the legislature.

The negotiating over the arena is likely to dominate the second half of the session. It may not dominate the headlines, because I suspect much of it will take place behind the scenes, but we may occasionally see public moves on either side.

If you look at the House vote, which was 59-40 in favor, you’ll see two things. First, the vote wasn’t particularly close. Second, the vote tally was noteworthy because it was bipartisan both ways — some Democrats and Republicans in favor, some Democrats and Republicans against. To my mind, the best way to describe the vote split is that those voting against had more philosophical objections to the state getting involved, those in favor either thought it was a good deal for the state, or perhaps they could get something for their districts out of it.

Given the size of the vote in favor, and the bipartisan split, there’s no reason to think the Senate would be appreciably different. That tells me the arena deal will probably go through, if it can get to the floor — so the question is how much Youngkin has to agree to for the bill to get there. I had a gun control advocate tell me this week that Democrats should demand that Youngkin sign their gun control measures as the legislative price for the bill. That’s an unrealistic demand of a Republican governor; he’s not going to go against something that’s a core belief for him — but he might be persuaded to acquiesce to something he’s not keen on but doesn’t object to as strongly. I am reminded of the famous quote from U.S. Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, who once said of lawmaking : “Legislation rarely includes only things I like — the candy apples — or omits the things I really dislike — the toads. Considering whether to support a bill usually means weighing whether there are enough candy apples to cover up the bad taste of a few toads.” How many toads can Lucas make Youngkin eat to get the arena?

Biggest surprise: ‘Skill’ games bill sails through

In the past, the General Assembly has banned these electronic games — which some consider no more than “neighborhood slot machines” — and only grudgingly allowed them to remain during the pandemic as a way to help convenience stores generate revenue. Last year, the Virginia Supreme Court upheld that ban in a court case involving Emporia truck stop owner (and former NASCAR driver) Hermie Sadler, with state Sen. Bill Stanley, R-Franklin County, as his attorney.

I had thought the push to legalize (and regulate, and tax) “skill” games would be more difficult. Casinos have long opposed these games, seeing them as competition — and unregulated competition, at that. However, the skill game bills have run right through the defense, so to speak. HB 590 by Del. Cliff Hayes, D-Portsmouth, passed the House 65-34. SB 212 by Sen. Aaron Rouse, D-Virginia Beach, passed the Senate 32-8. There are some important differences between the two in terms of exactly how the games are regulated; those will need to be worked out. However, both chambers have now voiced support for the general concept of allowing these games. I would not have predicted it would be that easy.

The first half stars: Krizek, Lucas, Rouse, Surovell

This will seem a partisan list since it’s all Democrats, but the political reality is that Democrats now control both chambers, so they get to dictate the terms of the debate — as Lucas just showed with the arena bill. For Republicans to have influence, they have to do it on bills that aren’t going to be ideological or partisan. We also still have the budget coming up and that’s where we can look for some Republican influence.

While Lucas starred in the big play, the two legislators whose names have come up most consistently — at least on the bills we’ve been following — have been Rouse and Del. Paul Krizek, D-Fairfax County. They have sponsored the two bills that would legalize retail cannabis (more on that below). Rouse has also sponsored the skill game bill (perhaps we should restyle him as Aaron Rouse, D-Vice?). Krizek didn’t sponsor the House version but introduced a substitute that substantially rewrote portions of the bill that Hayes introduced.

Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax County, was also going to make a lot of highlight reels simply by virtue of his position, but he’s also factored in quite a few bills we’ve been paying attention to — notably the bill to expand shared solar to Appalachian Power territory. (Cardinal’s Matt Busse had more on that .)

Keep in mind that I’m viewing the session through the lens of Southwest and Southside and the bills that we’ve deemed the most important to follow. I’m just listing the legislators who have been in the most highlight reels, not making judgments on whose policy positions are right or wrong. If we were from a different part of the state, or were invested in a different set of bills, the list would no doubt be different. Put another way, your view might differ depending on where you’re sitting in the stands. Also keep in mind that all these are bills that seem important now. Years from now, we might look back on some quiet, modest bill not listed here and find out that it’s really had a bigger impact long-term.

The most controversial play: Democrats force vote on Griffin’s abortion bill

Democrats consider this a fumble. Republicans consider this piling on. Del. Tim Griffin, R-Bedford County, introduced several bills to restrict abortion. Given the makeup of the House, all those were doomed to fail. That didn’t stop House Democrats from having some sport with the freshman legislator. When Griffin’s bill to ban abortion, except in the case of saving the life of the mother, came up in committee, the Democrats on the panel could have sat silent and voted it down. Instead, they grilled Griffin on the details. This was the House Courts of Justice Committee, so all the members were lawyers and they seemed to treat this as a practice session for a trial. Griffin tried to talk about abortion as murder; Democrats queried him about ectopic pregnancies and 10-year-old rape victims. In the end, even Republicans voted against that bill, killing it 8-0.

Griffin had another abortion bill that would have banned using public funds for abortion. Democrats could have killed that in committee, too, but instead took the unusual move of sending it to the floor — for the express purpose of using it to force what might have been a difficult vote for some Republicans.

House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah County, tried to amend Griffin’s bill to make it more politically palatable; House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, ruled that amendment wasn’t germane. Nor would he allow Griffin to withdraw his bill, which is a customary courtesy. In the end, Democrats didn’t get the vote they wanted, because all but three Republicans joined with Democrats to kill the bill. Cardinal’s Markus Schmidt wrote about this in more detail.

We must remember that the General Assembly deals with two things simultaneously: high-minded public policy and raw partisan politics. This was the latter, an attempt by Democrats to embarrass a freshman Republican. Here’s the downside of institutional memory: Someday, if Republicans are back in the majority, some unfortunate Democratic freshman might find himself or herself in the same position.

What to look for in the second half: Budget, cannabis and taxes

This is a budget year and the budget often defines the session. While it’s halftime for bills, we haven’t yet reached halftime for the budget. The two money committees — House Appropriations and Senate Finance — won’t report out their budget bills until Sunday, so we don’t know yet how extensively those two Democratic-controlled bodies have rewritten the budget that Youngkin proposed.

Here’s where the comparison between the General Assembly and a sports event doesn’t work: The game continues after the legislature adjourns, because things aren’t really over until the governor signs, amends or vetoes bills (and then the legislature acts on those amendments or vetoes). In that sense, the General Assembly is less like a football game or basketball game with a distinct halftime and more like a hockey game, with two intermissions between three periods — or perhaps a baseball game that, in theory, could go on until infinity, although, thankfully, the legislature won’t.

However we define the weeks ahead, here’s what we know to look for: Democrats will pass some gun control bills that Youngkin will certainly veto. Two other things that will pass, there’s more uncertainty about: cannabis and taxes.

Democrats will pass a bill that legalizes retail cannabis — personal possession is already legal, but selling it is not. The House and Senate have different bills, and the differences between them are important, particularly if you’re interested in creating jobs in rural Virginia. The two bills — HB 698 by Krizek, SB 448 by Rouse — say different things about how licenses will be distributed and whether outdoor growing is allowed. (The House bill would distribute them geographically by senatorial district but makes it possible to ban outdoor cultivation; the Senate bill doesn’t have a specific geographic quota but allows marijuana farms.) Those differences will need to get worked out, and surely will be. I feel certain that by session’s end, the legislature will pass some kind of retail cannabis legalization bill. The question is: Will Youngkin sign it?

The governor has repeatedly made it clear he has no interest in cannabis, although he’s stopped short of saying he’d veto the bill. Some Democrats would like to make agreeing to retail cannabis the price Youngkin must pay to get the arena bill through. However, there are lots of things Democrats would like to see Youngkin agree to. It all comes back to what I mentioned before: How many toads is he willing to swallow?

Retail cannabis would be easier for Youngkin to acquiesce to if more Republicans supported it. Contrast cannabis with skill games: Those bills have had a lot of Republican support; in the Senate, most Republicans voted for skill games. By contrast, cannabis passed on a party-line vote in the Senate and an almost party-line vote in the House — Del. Chris Obenshain, R-Montgomery County, was the only Republican to vote in favor. That lack of bipartisan support may make it harder to get cannabis across Youngkin’s desk.

Something to look out for

Before he resigned for health reasons, state Sen. Frank Ruff, R-Mecklenburg County, introduced SB 146 , which would grant Prince Edward County the authority to hold a referendum to raise taxes for schools. In the House, Del. Tommy Wright, R-Lunenburg County, introduced the same bill , but the House rolled it into Del. Sam Rasoul’s larger bill that would give all localities that power. The Senate passed Ruff’s bill separately. I suspect the House will want to roll Ruff’s bill into one by state Sen. Jeremy McPike, D-Prince William County, that’s similar to Rasoul’s, so as not to give Youngkin a vehicle by which he could give the authority to Prince Edward County — whose leaky school roof has become the poster child for capital needs — and not other localities.

By contrast, there is more bipartisan support for another measure moving through Richmond: bills that would allow each locality to hold a referendum on whether to raise the local sales tax, with the money going to school construction or renovation. Del. Sam Rasoul, D-Roanoke, has the House version, HB 805 , which passed the House 68-28. State Sen. Jeremy McPike, D-Prince William County, has the Senate version, SB 14 , which passed the Senate 27-13.

In both cases, it was telling that the Republicans who joined with Democrats tended to be rural Republicans, whose districts have the hardest time raising funds for schools. The governor may have a harder time vetoing this bill, since he’s proposed raising the state sales tax as part of his proposed tax overhaul (which would reduce the income tax). He might still find objections, but he can’t say his objection is because the sales tax is a regressive tax.

All these things will move separately, but could also get linked as part of some bargaining, particularly over the arena. Northern Virginia legislators want more money for the Metro subway system; they have the budget they can work through. Western legislators want more money for Interstate 81, and those farther southwest want to make sure the Amtrak route to Roanoke, which is being extended to Christiansburg, can run beyond that to Bristol. There are lots of wants. The stars of the second half will be the legislators who can squeeze what they want out of the budget, and cut whatever deal can be cut for the arena.

Now get back out there and win one for the team!

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