Much of rural Virginia is now growing younger, not older

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The next sound you hear will be that of some long-held stereotypes being shattered.

Most of us have grown up with a single picture of rural Virginia, particularly Southwest and Southside Virginia, in our minds: These are communities where people leave by the moving van if they’re not leaving by the hearse. These are communities that young adults can’t wait to get out of. These are communities that are aging.

Here’s today’s news: All that is now untrue.

It’s still true in some places, to be sure.

We now have several years’ worth of U.S. Census Bureau stats that show many rural areas are now seeing more people moving in than moving out. They may still be losing population because, with older populations, those communities have more deaths than either births or the net in-migration. Still, the trend is clear: People are moving in.

One question I always hear when I present that data: What kind of people are moving in? Are they mostly retirees? Now, thanks to the Census Bureau (and more specifically to demographer Hamilton Lombard at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, who has sorted through this data so even a layman like me can understand it), we can now say “no.” In much of rural Virginia, we’re seeing an increase in the number of young adults, part of what appears nationally to be a post-pandemic trend to move out of bigger cities.

For a while, we wondered whether this would be a temporary blip, and how significant it would turn out to be. While those are still two good questions to ask, with three years of data since the 2000 census (and the pandemic), we now have this development: The net in-migration of younger adults has been significant enough that the median age has now fallen in 35 Virginia localities, most of them rural, and most of them in Southwest and Southside.

Let’s repeat that for emphasis: Much of Southwest and Southside is now getting younger.

Lombard offers this caution: “At this point I am not sure how much I would read into the median age data for every county, but the general trend is noteworthy when you consider how different the trend of declining median ages in rural counties is compared to the past few decades.”

Let’s walk through all this. First, some basics.

Migration patterns have changed since the pandemic

Here’s which localities are gaining population and which ones are losing:

Here’s the map we really ought to pay attention to, though, — this shows the migration trends that are taking place beneath the surface. Notice all the rural areas that are seeing net in-migration.

Now, onto the age data.

Newcomers are lowering the median age in many places

In 1980, there wasn’t much difference in the median ages among localities in Virginia:

By 2019, every locality had gotten older but, just as significantly, a distinct age gap had happened between rural areas and metro areas:

You’ll see in that map the darkest areas — the oldest ones — are primarily in Southwest and Southside Virginia. Now, though, comes some new data that shows since the 2020 census, these localities have gotten younger:

You can see how well that overlaps with the migration map above — counties with a lot of net in-migration tend to be getting younger.

The state’s youngest localities

By median age:

Lexington 21.9
Radford 23.8
Harrisonburg 25
Williamsburg 26.4
Lynchburg 28.7

The state’s oldest localities

Highland County 60.0
Northumberland County 59.2
Lancaster County 59.0
Middlesex County 55.7
Mathews County 54.6

The changes aren’t big, but directionally, they’re a big deal because this has reversed trends that have been going on a long time.

While Lombard cautions against hanging too much on any particular data point, we’re also naturally curious, so proceed with this data at your own risk: The locality that has seen the biggest drop in median age is the city of Franklin, which has shaved 2.8 years off its median age since the 2020 census — the median age there has dropped from 39.8 to 37. The place that comes in second is Martinsville, which has seen its median age drop 2.7 years, from 39.7 to 37. We’ve seen a lot of housing development in Martinsville — more accurately, redevelopment of old buildings into living spaces. (Cardinal’s Martinsville-based reporter Dean-Paul Stephens has written about this .) I suspect those housing developments have made a difference. This is huge news for Martinsville, a city that a quarter-century ago saw its economy collapse and has been in the doldrums for many years since. Now it seems clear that a comeback is getting underway in Martinsville. Likewise, Botetourt County is among the localities where the median age has stayed the same, still a demographic feat. That’s surely due to the construction of many apartments in the southern part of the county, which has helped to attract younger residents to offset the rest of us who are getting older.

The locality that’s seen the biggest increase in its median age is Northampton County on the Eastern Shore, where the median age has gone up 1.8 years, from 50.7 to 52.5.

Let’s dig in deeper.

Most localities are seeing their age 25-45 population grow

To simplify things, let’s look at four basic age groups: under 25, 25 to 45, 45 to 65 and 65 and older.

Statewide, two of those age groups are growing — 25 to 45, and 65 and older — while two are shrinking — under 25, and 25 to 45.

Virtually every locality is seeing its 65 and older population grow (we’ll come back to this). That’s no surprise, as the huge baby boom generation ages. What’s demographically more interesting is that 25 to 45 group — working-age adults in the main years for getting married and having families.

As you can see in the map above, most places have seen their population of ages 25 to 45 grow. The three main exceptions are the state’s westernmost counties, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. I’ve written before about how the out-migration from the state’s two biggest economic engines has some profound economic consequences for those regions, and for the state as a whole. Overall, though, the state is gaining people in the 25-45 cohort; it’s just not gaining them in the biggest metros. Instead, they’re going to rural areas.

Here’s how much the world has changed. From 2020 to 2023, Loudoun County saw its 25-45 population decrease by 349, Prince William County saw it decline by 957, Alexandria by 2,743, Fairfax County by 3,109, Arlington by 4,765. In Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach saw that age group decline by 3,535.

Meanwhile, Chesterfield County — Virginia’s new growth hotspot — saw that age group grow by 7,589. Richmond saw that age group grow by 3,824, Spotsylvania County by 3,241, Stafford County by 2,901, Suffolk by 2,839, Hanover County by 1,901, Chesapeake by 1,713, Frederick County 1,342, Hampton by 1,093, Albemarle County by 1,014, Orange County by 1,014.

Virginia’s population is rearranging itself, moving out of Northern Virginia and parts of Hampton Roads and moving into a diagonal line from Frederick County to Chesapeake. Here’s another way to visualize that: These localities are seeing their populations increase in every age cohort:

The growth of the 25-45 population is lower in Southwest and Southside — no surprise there — but it is growing, and that is something of a surprise. If your eyes have glazed over from all those numbers, I don’t blame you. Just think of it this way: Franklin County is seeing adults 25-45 move in, while Fairfax County is seeing them move out. Same for Pittsylvania County and Pulaski County in contrast to Prince William County. As long as you remember that, all those numbers may not really matter.

These are the counties that are going against a statewide trend

Of the two age groups where Virginia overall is seeing declines, one is the under-25 group. Some of that may be due to falling birth rates, some to out-migration. However, some localities are seeing their under-25 population increase. Generally, the map above matches up with the high-growth areas we’ve seen in the earlier maps. What I notice is that some counties in the central part of Southside as well as Franklin County and Patrick County have seen an increase in that age group. That’s welcome news in those communities.

These are the places that need the most demographic help

This shows a group of localities where every age group is declining except one — those over 65. Nothing against those 65-plus, but in demographic terms, these communities need more younger people. It’s natural for the eye to go to those Southwest Virginia counties because they take up so much space on the map, but what you really ought to see is how much of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads now is in the same situation.

The takeaways

I’ve thrown around a lot of numbers and made lots of maps, so some of you might be wondering “what’s this all mean?”

Here are some suggestions:

• The state’s two biggest metro areas, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, are facing unprecedented demographic challenges that should concern all of us. Rural areas depend on our state’s metro areas to generate the revenue that subsidize rural schools, for instance.
• Much of rural Virginia is now seeing a demographic renaissance.
• Two of the biggest success stories are Danville and Martinsville, two cities given up for dead when textiles, tobacco and furniture collapsed. Both are now seeing net in-migration, both now growing their under-25 and 25-45 age groups, and they’re growing both so much that both cities have seen their median ages drop. I’ll look more closely at both places in a future column.

In this week’s West of the Capital

I write a weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out every Friday afternoon. This week I’ll look at:

• The rural pushback against solar energy.
• How Ohio is doing something that Virginia could have done (and might yet do) and how it’s working out.
• Congressional fundraising.
• A trivia question that will test your knowledge of Virginia governors.

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