Martinsville and the city of Franklin are growing younger faster than any other places in Virginia

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A quarter-century ago, the economies in many communities across Southwest and Southside simply collapsed — textiles and furniture jobs disappeared just like that.

In places that once had tobacco jobs, they didn’t have those anymore, either.

The twin epicenters of those economic traumas were Danville and Martinsville, but only because they were the biggest communities. We saw similar stories across the southern tier of Virginia, be it Halifax County or Pulaski County or lots of other places. Ever since, they’ve been on a generational quest to reinvent themselves.

A new batch of U.S. Census Bureau data shows just how well some of them have succeeded (and highlights some other communities that still have work to do).

The markers are found in demographics, which are bound up with economics in many ways. Ronald Reagan was fond of saying that “people vote with their feet,” meaning that people leave economically unsuccessful places and move to economically successful ones. He was right. Population increases, and decreases, can tell us a lot about the economy of a place. We’ve also come to understand how much the workforce matters to the modern economy — once people moved to where the jobs were (and some still do), but we also now have companies moving to where the workers are. By that measure, a community with a declining population isn’t very attractive because it means the labor pool is declining. What employers really like are communities where the labor pool is growing — and is also relatively young, because that guarantees long-term prospects.

With that in mind, let’s look at two maps, a decade apart. This first one shows localities where the only age group that was gaining population from 2010-2013 was the 65-plus cohort. All the other age cohorts were losing population. Notice how this is almost exclusively a map of rural areas, with emphasis on Southwest and Southside.

Now let’s look at another map. This is the same thing for 2020-2023 — the localities where the only age group gaining population is 65-plus.

You’ll notice several things:

• There’s been a marked drop in the number of localities that are losing population in every age cohort except 65-plus.
• Southside has only two localities in that unfortunate demographic category: Greensville County and Henry County.
• Much of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads is now losing population in every age cohort except 65-plus.

I’ve written before about how Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are losing population, so let’s skip over those. For more on the trends there, you can see my previous demographic columns . Instead, today, let’s look more closely at those demographic turnarounds in Southside (and parts of Southwest).

Keep in mind that most of these localities are still losing population. They’re losing it, though, in a very specific way: death. Most of them actually have more people moving in than moving out, but because they’re older communities, deaths outnumber both births and net in-migration. I’ll try not to overload you with information, but if you’re interested in those maps, you can find them in a previous column.

Here’s what I’m driving toward today:

Virginia has 20 localities that a decade ago were losing population and that are now gaining population. Furthermore, a decade ago these 20 localities were losing population in every age cohort except those 65 and older. Today, they’re all still gaining population among those 65 and older, but they’re also gaining population in some (but not all) of the age cohorts under 65. The map above shows the localities that have posted those dramatic population turnarounds. Here are insights into some of those.

‘Rural resort’ communities are the oldest in the state (and are getting oldest the fastest)

The map above shows the median ages for each locality in the state. Hover over yours and you can see what the age is. The main point: Rural Virginia has the oldest parts of the state. However, you’ll notice that some are distinctly older than others — Bath and Highland counties on the state’s western borders, Rappahannock County in the eastern foothills of the Blue Ridge, multiple localities along the Chesapeake Bay, and Charles City County along the James River.

All these counties have something in common: They all have reputations as being what have come to be called “rural resort” communities, meaning rural areas that have become favored places for people to retire. Some of those along the bay have seen an especially large influx of affluent retirees, something which has complicated school funding in those counties, because part of the state’s school funding formula is based on income.

Since 1980, Highland County has aged faster than any other locality in the state. Its median age has jumped from 34.4 to 60, an increase of 24.5 years. Charles City County has aged the second-fastest, an increase of 24.2 years, from 27.8 to 53.

Botetourt pushes new housing

In some cases, this has been a result of public policy. Botetourt County, for instance, has specifically promoted multifamily housing as a way to attract younger adults. A decade ago, Botetourt was losing population overall — and losing it in every age cohort except seniors. Now, Botetourt has gone from losing 154 people in 2010-2013 to gaining 530 people in 2020-2023. It’s unusual in that the growth of its senior population slowed. What’s really made the difference is that Botetourt is now attracting more residents in the 25-45 age cohort. In the first three years of the last decade, Botetourt lost 527 people ages 25-45. In the first three years of this decade, it has gained 542. We don’t know how much of that is due to the addition of new housing units, and how much is due to Zoom-era migration during and after the pandemic, or both — we just know there’s been a big turnaround.

Goochland and Northumberland are in rare company

Virginia has 16 localities that are gaining population in every age cohort. You’ll see from the map that they’re generally in what is in the state’s population growth zone, which stretches diagonally from the northern Shenandoah Valley to the western edge of Hampton Roads. Given how much and how fast some of these localities are growing (looking at you, Chesterfield County!), this map is no surprise. Two localities, though, stand out on this: Goochland County and Northumberland County.

In the first three years of the last decade, both were losing population overall (it’s hard to imagine Goochland losing population, but it was). Now they’re gaining population — and among that Sweet 16 that are gaining population in every age cohort. Goochland has benefited (assuming you consider population growth a benefit; not all do) from the exurban growth around Richmond. Northumberland has been at the center of a lot of growth along the Chesapeake Bay, part of that new migration trend toward “rural recreation” counties. Clearly, this hasn’t all been retirees flocking to the bay. Northumberland has actually seen the growth of its 65-and-older age cohort slow. From 2010-2013, it added 442 people in that age group. From 2020-2023, it added only 227. The big change has come from younger age cohorts. A decade ago, Northumberland was losing people in every age cohort under 65, now it’s gaining in every age cohort.

Martinsville may have the most dramatic population turnaround

Martinsville’s population peaked in 1970, and it’s been losing people in every headcount since. It’s now on the way toward reversing that unhappy trend. In the first three years of the last decade, Martinsville lost 405 people — and it was the rare locality to lose people in every age cohort, even those 65 and older. (Only Galax and Emporia were doing the same.) Now, in the first three years of the current decade, Martinsville has gained 283 people. By comparison, most cities in Virginia have lost population (it’s generally been the suburbs, exurbs and rural areas that have been gaining).

Martinsville remains one of the few localities where the over-65 population is shrinking (there are now nine localities with that distinction). It’s gained population because of a remarkable turnaround among those 25 to 45, but especially those under 25. In the first three years of the last decade, Martinsville lost 139 people ages 25 to 45; now it’s gained 126. But check out this: In the first three years of the last decade, Martinsville lost 64 people under 25; now it’s gained 467.

Martinsville has a genuine youth movement going on. Here’s how dramatic that has been. Martinsville has added more people under 25 than Chesapeake, which added 294 but is otherwise one of the faster-growing localities in the state. Martinsville has also added more than the college town of Harrisonburg (388) and almost as many as Lynchburg (496), a multi-college town. West of that ring of growth around Richmond, and south of Interstate 64, Lynchburg and Martinsville — in that order — have seen the most net growth in residents under 25. Lynchburg isn’t that surprising, given all of its colleges, but Martinsville, which doesn’t have a single four-year college, sure is.

Because of that under-25 growth, Martinsville has also seen the second-biggest drop in its median age — behind only the city of Franklin. While most communities in Virginia are getting older, Martinsville is getting younger. Its median age has dropped from 39.7 to 37. Franklin’s has dropped from 39.8 to 37. Both aren’t far off from the state’s median age (generally put at 37.8) but the point is directional: They’re getting younger faster than anywhere else.

In fact, many of the localities across Southwest and Southside are now getting younger, a result of new residents moving in:

Three years of encouraging demographics isn’t enough to declare a trend — and Martinsville’s demographic turnaround stands in marked contrast to surrounding Henry County, which has continued to lose population and to lose residents in every age cohort under 65. Still, when I look at these maps, and the numbers behind them, what I see is a generational turnaround starting to happen. A quarter-century ago, some of these communities were essentially given up for dead. Now, it’s clear, they’re very much alive.

How do we balance the demand for energy against those who don’t want energy projects next door?

That’s a question we posed in this week’s installment of Cardinal Way, our project to promote civil discourse. You can read two opposing points of view and weigh in with comments that we might use in a future column.

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