No one will ever confuse Ghent with Gretna or Ocean View with Big Stone Gap, but there might still be lessons in Hampton Roads that can be applied in Southwest and Southside Virginia.
Here’s what I’ve been reading lately: an 81-page report on why more people are moving out of Hampton Roads than moving in.
As those of you who have followed my occasional columns on demography know, Virginia’s population trends have undergone a paradigm shift in the past few years. It used to be rural areas that had problems with people moving out, while the urban crescent was booming. Now, most — but not all — rural counties are seeing more people move in than move out, while Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are flat-out losing population. When you add it all together, Virginia is still gaining population overall, but only because births are outnumbering deaths (and everything else). Beneath the surface of that slowly rising population, there’s a counter-current: More people are moving out than moving in, and that’s almost entirely because of our two biggest metros.
Gov. Glenn Youngin has said this is because of high taxes. Democrats have said it’s because we haven’t invested enough in transportation and education. And in a column earlier this summer, I called for a state study to figure out the true facts of the matter, to the extent that we can.
Turns out the Hampton Roads Executive Roundtable and the Hampton Roads Workforce Council had already commissioned a study of its own. The study from Fahrenheit Advisors , which is now out, just deals with Hampton Roads, but I suspect many of the findings can apply to other places, as well.
Here’s the map you should keep in mind — all those areas in green have more people moving in than moving out.
This map shows which localities are seeing more people move in than move out since the last census. Note that localities gaining newcomers might still lose population overall because deaths might outnumber births and net in-migration. Data source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, the University of Virginia.
Many of those rural counties with an influx of moving vans are losing population, too, but they’re losing it solely because deaths outnumber births. There’s not much we can do about that, except maybe hope that younger adults move in and nature takes its course.
From a policy perspective, the focus has been on how to reverse out-migration, not increasing the birth rate. That’s why I find this Hampton Roads report so interesting, and potentially useful to places much farther inland.
This study surveyed those ages 22-45 because other data shows it’s younger adults who have been the most likely to leave Hampton Roads. Many of the findings aren’t all that surprising but are still worth pointing out, lest we forget some obvious things.
Who is most likely to leave? Younger workers with no children and few ties to the community.
The Hampton Roads study calls these people “boomerangs” because they may be as quick to leave as they were to arrive. They moved to the region as adults, have no children and less community involvement. Virtually every community I know is trying to recruit more young adults. This report serves as a caution: They may not stay unless they have a good reason to.
Who else is most likely to leave? Remote workers.
This study found that 41% of those who work remotely say they’re likely to leave, far more than any other group — the general figure for others in private industry in Hampton Roads was 34%.
It shouldn’t surprise us that remote workers are the most likely to leave — they can work anywhere. That’s their very definition. I can imagine that many local government officials in Southwest and Southside are reading this right now and thinking, hmm, maybe we need to go after some of those Hampton Roads people. Just as every locality I know of is trying to attract more young adults, just about every locality I know of is trying to figure out how to attract more remote workers. That’s a wise policy for rural areas — they require no particular infrastructure beyond broadband (no big industrial parks, no rail access, no natural gas pipelines, etc.), and they bring new income into the community. However, those rural areas also need to keep in mind the old saying: Easy come, easy go. Remote workers can pack up their laptops anytime they please.
That brings us to what might be the most important finding in this report:
Those inclined to stay are more involved in the community. Here are the biggest involvement gaps between those likely to leave and those likely to stay. Courtesy of Hampton Roads Roundtable, Hampton Roads Workforce Council and Fahrenheit Advisors.
The people most likely to stay are those who are involved in the community; the people most likely to leave are those who aren’t.
The Hampton Roads study found that 86% of those who say they are likely to stay are those who are involved in community activities. Of those who say they’re likely to move, 60% are involved in community activities.
Like many things, there are two ways to read that: Even community involvement isn’t a guaranteed anchor, since most of those likely to move are involved — but it does offer a bigger anchor to hold people in place. (This sounds much like Robert Putnam’s famous book “Bowling Alone,” about how people are losing community connections.)
Clearly, the takeaway is that communities need to not just attract young adults, they need to find ways to get them involved. So what kind of involvement works best to hold onto people?
It may not be what you think.
It’s not putting on festivals — among those likely to stay and those likely to leave, about the same numbers attended local festivals. They may be fun, but they’re not anchors that keep people from moving away.
The biggest gap was with those posting on some community forum on social media. Among those who had done that, 41% were likely to stay while only 23% were likely to leave.
Who knew?
Some other types of activities that revealed a big gap between those likely to stay and those likely to leave: attending a neighborhood association meeting or attending a community action group meeting. Those who do so are more likely to stay than those who don’t.
This also suggests to me that it’s not just local governments or high-level business groups that have a role to play here — so do neighborhood groups.
What causes people to move away? Six things.
The Hampton Roads study asked those surveyed to weight 21 factors by their importance and how satisfied people were with them. Of those, six stood out as being things that people felt were important to their life decisions and where satisfaction levels came in under the average.
Here’s the chart:
This chart shows the factors people consider when thinking about moving out of Hampton Roads. Courtesy of Hampton Roads Executive Roundtable, Hampton Roads Workforce Council and Fahrenheit Advisors.
The two main drivers: the cost of housing and the cost of living, followed by the availability of housing. Those ranked high in importance but relatively low in satisfaction. We’ve typically heard that high housing costs are driving people out of Northern Virginia; that seems to be the case with Hampton Roads, as well.
Other factors that rank high in importance but lower in satisfaction:
Safety
Career opportunities
The availability of health care
What motivates those likely to leave Hampton Roads. Courtesy of Hampton Roads Roundtable, Hampton Roads Workforce Council and Fahrenheit Advisors. This is what the Hampton Roads Rhinos jerseys would have looked like. Courtesy of Twillandpolyester Jerseys.
Localities in Southwest and Southside can look at this and try to guess where they’d rank. I suspect we’d do better on cost of living and safety but maybe not the other things, such as career opportunities and availability of health care. (With that in mind, see the recent story by Emily Schabacker, Cardinal’s health care reporter, about maternity deserts in rural Virginia.)
Of note: Nightlife ranked low in importance. The only thing that came lower was “presence of local sports teams.” (Here’s where I must make a nod toward the Hampton Roads Rhinos, which could have been a National Hockey League expansion team but got passed over in 1997. The prospective team had one of the best logos that never took the ice.)
This chart shows who is most likely to talk up the community in Hampton Roads. Courtesy of Hampton Roads Executive Roundtable, Hampton Roads Workforce Council and Fahrenheit Advisors.
The biggest cheerleaders are those with ties to the region
The study found that those most likely to talk up Hampton Roads are those who have lived there 10 years or more, followed by people who once lived there and moved back, high-income residents and those with children.
All that makes sense to me, and raises the question: If our communities showed the same results, how can we enlist those long-timers to be recruiters?
Now what?
The Hampton Roads Executive Roundtable and the Hampton Roads Workforce Council are now chewing over all this as they work on next steps. That’s for them to decide. What should localities in Southwest and Southside draw from this?
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The State Capitol. Photo by Bob Brown.
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