Hurricane Helene takes out power in much of Southwest Virginia; New River expected to crest higher than anytime since 1940

UPDATE 12:15 PM, 9/27/2024:

Hurricane Helene and its only slowly weakening inland circulation has brought widespread wind damage and flooding to a swath from its Category 4 landfall with 130 mph sustained winds and 15-foot storm surge near the Big Bend of Florida northward into Cardinal News’ Southwest and Southside Virginia coverage area.

At midday, more than 150,000 Virginia utility customers were without power, the vast majority near and west of the Blue Ridge where 40-50 mph wind gusts have been common and some have topped 60 mph. According to utility data aggegator poweroutage.us , 99.7% of utility customers in both Grayson and Bland counties were without power.  Sixty percent or more of customers in most counties along and west of Interstate 77 were lacking electricity, numbering 10,000 or more in several of those counties, with as many as 3,000 without power as far east as Bedford County.

The New River is out of banks through much of its course in western Virginia with evacuations near the river ongoing. The New Rier is forecast to crest at 27 feet at Radford by early Sunday, which would be the second highest level it has reached on record, trailing only the 36-foot flood of August 1940. Numerous other creeks, small streams and roads have been flooded across the region. Western North Carolina, as expected, has been hit even harder by flooding and high winds – the North Carolina Department of Transportation advised that travelers should consider every road in western North Carolina closed.

Constant heavy rain during the morning has become more showery as drier air has punched in from the south and the weakening center of Helene has begun pulling westward into Tennessee. More sporadic showers and storms are expected through the afternoon but some could acquire enough spin to spawn tornadoes – a tornado watch covers all of southern Virginia east of the Blue Ridge until 6 p.m. Winds will continue to be gusty but slowly weaken this afternoon, with brief periods of heavy rain still possible in the stronger shower and storm cells.

END UPDATE

Hurricane Helene is nearing landfall in the Apalachee Bay region of Florida on this Thursday evening, a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. A catastrophic hit on a section of the Gulf Coast appears nearly certain with disastrous impacts stretching hundreds of miles inland, focusing on the mountains of the western Carolinas.

Southwest and Southside Virginia, especially areas west of Interstate 77, have already seen significant indirect effects of Helene, its circulation influencing wind flow that has banked moisture against a stalled frontal boundary and higher terrain for periods of heavy rain, some flooding and mudslides. But more direct effects of the storm are expected to increase overnight into Friday as its slowly weakening circulation center tracks northward through Georgia and then bends northwest into east Tennessee. That will include more heavy rain, increasing wind gusts, and an enhanced risk of tornadoes.

Besides the coastal areas suffering extreme winds and high storm surge, the mountains of the western Carolinas appear likely to be endure the worst impacts of Helene’s inland iteration, with possibly another 6-12 inches on top of as much that has already fallen and winds that may be near hurricane force at times in higher elevations. Record river crests, rampant mudslides, and widespread wind damage and power outages are expected in that region just to our south.

Southwest and Southside Virginia will be one or two rings outside the bull’s-eye of worst effects, but still could see some significant damage and power outages from water and wind. Conditions will begin to improve steadily on Friday afternoon and evening as Helene moves more west, and there may be sunshine with only scattered showers by Saturday. What’s left of Helene may drift back our way early next week, absorbed into an upper-level low that is pulling it west.

Generally speaking, the farther southwest one is in Virginia, the worse the impact of Helene is expected to be, though there may be exceptions farther east and north where a particularly heavy rain band stalls or a tornado occurs. The northern and eastern fringes of Virginia may be barely touched by Helene.

But Cardinal News’ coverage area is to the south and west relative to the rest of the state, and therefore will be front and center for Helene’s worst in the commonwealth, Here is a breakdown of three sections of our region, west to east, using highways as boundaries, and what to expect overnight into Friday.

Southwest Virginia along and west of I-77

This area has had almost continuous rain since early Wednesday and, combined with storms on Tuesday, has already seen many 4- to 8-inch rainfall totals with reports of mudslides, flooded roads, and small streams out of their banks. Another 2-4 inches of rain, locally more, overnight into Friday could be enough to push more streams and rivers above flood stage, with perhaps serious flooding endangering homes in some areas. Mountainous terrain will also likely see additional landslides.

This section of Virginia will be closest to the center of Helene tracking through Tennessee and will likely see the strongest winds, with gusts greater than 50 mph, especially in higher elevations. Tree damage and scattered to numerous power outages are likely. High wind warnings have been issued.

There will also be some risk of tornadoes spinning up in rain bands swirling around Helene’s circulation, though greater instability may make this risk somewhat greater farther east.

Western/Central/Southside Virginia between I-77 and U.S. 29

This section, including the Roanoke and New River valleys, most of the Blue Ridge in our region eastward to Martinsville, Smith Mountain Lake, Lynchburg and Danville, will see bands of heavy rain and storms moving through overnight into Friday morning with new rainfall ranging from near 1 inch on the eastern edge to near 4 inches along the Blue Ridge and near the western edge of the region. Stalled or training heavy rain bands can increase totals in narrow zones anywhere, and some higher elevations along the Blue Ridge may be nearer 6 inches.

Falling on top of soils moistened by varying amounts of rain over the past week, including up to 3 inches in some areas with Wednesday night storms, localized flooding may develop and some rivers may push above flood stage.

Winds will pick up from easterly trajectories overnight and early Friday with 30-50 mph gusts likely in many locations, possibly greater in higher elevations. This will be enough to push over some trees, damage limbs, and cause sporadic to scattered power outages.

Tornadoes will probably spin up in some of the rain bands swirling through early Friday, a threat that may increase as the larger rain shield begins to lift northward and more dry zones develop between rain bands and/or discrete storm cells. This may increase shear and instability locally in a few cells, enhancing their ability to spin.

Central/Southside Virgina east of U.S. 29

This section will see intermittent rain bands and storms with many locations seeing ½ to 2 inches of rain, locally more.

There will be a risk of tornadoes, especially if rain bands develop dry slots between them on Friday, and more so if there are areas where the sun comes out briefly and boosts instability that much more.

Winds will increase from the east with some gusts near 30 mph, and this may cause some broken tree limbs and a few power outages.

Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter:

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