“Given the fact that other polls have been out there showing that the race was tightening, I was not incredibly surprised to see that the race had tightened in our poll as well,” said Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research.
“I will say that if you had asked me that question a few weeks ago, say in early August, then I would have been surprised. But given where a lot of the other polls have shown the race headed both nationally and in North Carolina, the fact that our polls showed that the race had tightened was in line with what with what others were finding as well,” Francia added.
A new ECU poll of North Carolina voters has Donald Trump only one point ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, well within the three point margin of error.
Most Republicans approve of Senator JD Vance as Trump’s running mate, but Harris’ pick of Governor Tim Walz gives her an edge in moving the needle.
“Some voters may be perfectly content with JD Vance, but they know Donald Trump, and they were going to vote for him no matter who he picked. But Harris certainly got a little more of a boost from her supporters for her selection of Tim Waltz,” said Dr. Francia.
Inflation, the cost of living and the economy top voters concerns, followed by abortion access and border security.
Voters were also asked about the race for North Carolina governor. Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein carries a six-point lead above Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson. Just last June, Stein was only one point ahead. Up until recently, voters weren’t that familiar with either candidate. That’s changed.
“Both campaigns are sort of ramping up their their advertising and voters see those ads, and it makes a difference. Now, there is still plenty of time between now and November, so the the current lead that we have Josh Stein with, it’s very possible that those numbers could tighten even a bit more as we get closer to November,” said Dr. Francia.
More on the methodology of the poll from ECU Center for Survey Research:
“This ECU Poll was conducted August 26-August 28, 2024. The results in this poll are based on 920 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire from a random sample of North Carolina registered voters who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election. Respondents completed the poll either through cell phone via MMS-to-web text (N= 502) or through landline phone via Interactive Voice Response (N=418). The firm, Aristotle, provided the sample for both the cell phone and landline phone lists. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample of likely voters in this poll is +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. (Please note that all results of subsamples, such as those based on demographics or other factors, such as party identification, have a higher margin of sampling error.)
The data in this poll were weighted to a likely population of general election voters in North Carolina based on various demographics, including age, education level, race/ethnicity, gender, region, party identification, and recalled vote from the 2020 presidential election. The results reported from the poll round off all percentages to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentage totals in some instances may be slightly higher or lower than 100%. The ECU Center for Survey Research, which directed this poll, is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative (TI).
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