As Hurricane Milton approaches, here's what South Florida can expect

MIAMI - Hurricane Milton is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to South Florida as it approaches the state's west coast as a powerful Category 4 storm .

"Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida," the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday night.

In a 2 p.m. update Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said Milton was packing maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and it was about 130 miles from Fort Myers. It was moving north-northeast at 16 mph.

NEXT Weather meteorologist Lissette Gonzalez says Milton is encountering some wind shear and is forecast to weaken to a Category 3 before making landfall late Wednesday night.

How Milton will impact South Florida

South Florida is receiving a "one-two punch" with the system. A weaker and non-tropical area of low pressure swept through Sunday and Monday, bringing South Florida's first round of heavy rain and some flooding.

The second "punch" will be seen as Milton approaches Florida on Wednesday. The storm is expected to bring more heavy rain and windy weather, which will last through Thursday as Milton moves across the state and off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean.

Depending on its track, Milton could bring tropical storm conditions Wednesday for most of South Florida.

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a tornado watch for all of South Florida through 9 p.m. Wednesday.

For now, South Florida's main threat continues to be the risk of rainwater flooding, with 4 to 7 inches or more looking likely across the area.

Watches and warnings in effect

All of Florida, except for the Panhandle, is under a warning or watch.

Miami-Dade and Broward are under a tropical storm warning that extends on Florida's southeast coast from Flamingo in Everglades National Park to the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line.

Miami-Dade and Broward could see sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. The Florida Keys could see sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 55 to 65 mph.

A tropical storm warning also includes the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, Florida's west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach and north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass and north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to the Savannah River.

A hurricane warning is in effect on Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, and Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin county line to Ponte Vedra Beach.

A hurricane watch covers the Dry Tortugas west of the Keys, Lake Okeechobee, Florida's west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach, Florida's east coast from north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of St. Mary River, and Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin county line to the Palm Beach/Martin county line.

Landfall timeline

Milton's most likely path suggests it could make landfall somewhere between Tampa and Fort Myers.

"On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday," the hurricane center said.

Milton is growing in size as it approaches the Florida coast.

"The official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall," the hurricane center said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 51 counties ahead of Milton's expected landfall, including Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.

Dangerous storm surge forecast for Florida

Forecasters warned of dangerous storm surge. Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande could see a surge of up to 13 feet. The Anclote River to Anna Maria Island, Tampa Bay, Boca Grande to Bonita Beach and Charlotte Harbor could see a surge of up to 12 feet.  Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee up to 8 feet. The Dry Tortugas could get up to 4 feet of storm surge.

"The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves," the hurricane center said.

"Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday," the hurricane center said. "This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban  and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding."

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday.

The ongoing rounds of showers and storms will prime Florida soils for what will likely be an increasing flood risk.

Several tornadoes are likely on Wednesday across parts of central and southern Florida.