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Maps show Hurricane Francine's path and forecast
By Emily Mae Czachor,
1 days ago
A look at Tropical Storm Francine's expected path 01:00
Hurricane Francine continued to move over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday on a path toward Louisiana, triggering new hazardous weather alerts as far as the Florida border.
Forecasters expected the storm's center to strengthen until it moves ashore over the Louisiana coast on Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night, and then rapidly weaken.
After crawling up through the Gulf for most of the time since it developed, Francine was forecast to strengthen into Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center said, and then make landfall over the Louisiana coast on Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. The latest projections indicated that the storm could reach maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour ahead of its arrival on the Gulf shoreline.
After making landfall, it was expected to rapidly weaken as it moves north into Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday.
Maps released by the National Hurricane Center illustrated Francine's forecast as the storm gained strength and became more organized overnight Monday into Tuesday.
At 11 p.m. ET Tuesday, Francine was moving northeast across the western Gulf of Mexico at around 10 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It was centered about 185 miles northeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and about 295 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, the hurricane center said. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles from the eye of the storm.
Watches and warnings have been issued for much of coastal Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, as well as various parts of coastal Texas. A hurricane warning is in place for the Louisiana coast from Cameron east to Grand Isle, and a hurricane watch is in effect for metropolitan New Orleans, in addition to Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
A satellite image of Hurricane Francine taken at 11 p.m. EDT on Sept. 10, 2024. NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-East
Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are activated when conditions typically associated with those weather events are imminent. Watches are different from warnings, which the hurricane center will issue for areas where severe weather conditions could possibly arrive within a couple of days.
The hurricane center reported that "damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds" were forecast for portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, and there was also the "danger of life-threatening storm surge for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines."
Francine was forecast to bring heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding to parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
Storm surge warnings were in effect for the Louisiana coast from Cameron east to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A storm surge watch extended from there across to the Alabama-Florida border.
If peak storm surge and high tide happen together, water levels from Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and around Vermilion Bay could rise between 5 and 10 feet above ground levels, the hurricane center said. Levels could reach 4 to 7 feet from Port Fourchon to the mouth of the Mississippi River, and 3 to 5 feet from Cameron to High Island. Places along the Gulf coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the border of Alabama and Florida could see storm surges between 2 and 4 feet, according to the forecasts.
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation in the watch area within 48 hours, and a warning means it could happen sooner.
The storm surge forecast for Tropical Storm Francine. Sept. 10, 2024. NOAA
After meandering throughout Monday and overnight, forecasters said Francine would continue to travel faster toward the northeast Tuesday while churning just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Following a significant period of intensification overnight and into the morning, the center of the storm was forecast to reach the Louisiana coast by Wednesday afternoon or evening, before moving into Mississippi Wednesday night or Thursday.
The rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Francine. Sept. 10, 2024. NOAA
Francine was expected to dump 4 to 8 inches of rain on coastal regions from northeastern Mexico to the southern and upper Texas coasts, and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning, but up to a foot of rainfall could accumulate in certain parts. There was a risk of "considerable" flash flooding and urban flooding because of that, forecasters warned, noting that dangerous storm surge linked to Francine could compound the tide and flood coastal areas.
Flooding risks were highest for large sections of southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and the rest of the delta, and a strip of southwestern Mississippi, including the vast majority of the coast.
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