"Catastrophic" Hurricane Milton heads for Florida landfall

Hurricane Milton was barreling across the Gulf of Mexico as a strong Category 4 storm, bordering Category 5, Wednesday morning on a path toward Florida's central west coast, the National Hurricane Center said. It is currently expected to make landfall in the early hours of Thursday.

Milton's sustained wind speeds dipped before 8 a.m. Eastern Time to 155 miles per hour,  which is just 1 mph below the marker for Category 5. That was down sightly from 160 miles per hour recorded earlier Wednesday, when forecasters described it as a "catastrophic" hurricane.

"Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida," the Miami-based hurricane center said early Wednesday.

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay described Milton as "a historic storm for the west coast of Florida" that could prove to be the worst to hit Tampa Bay in more than a century.

What time will Hurricane Milton make landfall?

CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan said the latest forecast track shows Milton making landfall over or near Sarasota, Florida, after about 2 a.m. ET.  Milton is expected to be a low-end Category 4 hurricane at the time, Nolan said, which would put its winds at the bottom of the 130-156 mph range.

Forecasts updated by the hurricane center Wednesday morning showed Milton tracking just off the coast of Florida, in Sarasota Bay, at around 5 a.m. Thursday. Its sustained winds will be about 130 mph at that point, they predicted. But the hurricane center also cautioned against following certain forecast details too closely, like the exact landfall location.

While more recent models point to Sarasota as Milton's landfall spot, earlier projections suggested Milton could make landfall at Tampa Bay, raising serious concerns for a city vulnerable to storm surge that has not been in the direct path of a hurricane in at least 100 years.

"Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles," the hurricane center said.

After landfall, Milton will continue across Florida while rapidly weakening after losing the fuel of the warm Gulf waters, but still maintaining its hurricane status as it exits into the Atlantic Ocean before quickly transitioning into a tropical storm Thursday afternoon.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach north to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, and the state's east coast from the St. Lucie-Martin County line north to Ponte Vedra Beach.

Storm surge threats are a major concern for the west coast of Florida. In addition to hurricane warnings, storm surge warnings were in effect from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

A storm surge warning was also in effect for Florida's east coast, from the Sebastian Inlet in Florida, to Georgia's Altamaha Sound, including the St. Johns River.

Multiple areas were also under tropical storm watches and warnings, including portions of Georgia, South Carolina and the Bahamas.

The National Weather Service said, "If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation and you should evacuate if ordered to do so by local officials."

The hurricane center warned that storm surge in the Tampa Bay area could reach 8 to 10 feet above ground level. That prediction was lower than earlier forecasts, which suggested Tampa could see surges up to 15 feet. As forecasters' landfall predictions shifted southward, so did their storm surge estimates. As of Wednesday morning, a stretch of Florida's west coast from Anna Maria Island down to Boca Grande, including Sarasota, was forecast to see peak surges between 10 and 15 feet — about as high or slightly higher than a single story building.

"The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves," the hurricane center said in a Monday afternoon advisory. "Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances."

Forecasts show heavy rainfall, up to 18 inches in certain areas, could cause "considerable flash, urban and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding" in parts of the Florida peninsula though Thursday.

Tampa Bay braces for landfall

Mass evacuations clogged highways as people prepared for Milton's potentially historic impact. Some communities, like those in and around the Tampa Bay area, were still reeling from Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.

"I think the most recent models have it somewhere in Manatee County, just south of Tampa Bay," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a briefing Tuesday. "But I would just tell people, one, we're going to have impacts far beyond wherever the eye of the storm is."

He added,  "The impacts will be broader ... specifically with respect to storm surge."

Floridians in the potential path of the hurricane lined properties with sandbags, boarded up doors and windows, and moved their boats ahead of the storm's arrival. DeSantis issued emergency orders over the weekend that now include 51 counties, whose residents, he said, should prepare for power outages, stock up on enough food and water to last a week and be ready to leave their homes if necessary.

According to GasBuddy , as of Tuesday evening, a little more than 17% of Florida gas stations were without fuel, including more than 46% in the Tampa Bay area.

Milton has undergone fast-moving and at times dramatic changes over the last few days. In an interview on "CBS Mornings" Wednesday, FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell asked Floridians to listen to local officials as the storm continued to oscillate in terms of strength while approaching landfall and explained some people may not need to travel far when evacuating.

"The message that I try to get across is when we think about evacuation we often think about these long lines of traffic going out of state when in reality you may only need to go a few miles," Criswell said. "This is a massive storm that is going to bring catastrophic wind, but also flooding and storm surge, so listen to your local officials. Nobody needs to die from this storm. I want people to get out of harm's way."

Milton's peak strength rivaled the most disastrous Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history and happened at breakneck speed. Milton was a tropical storm only 24 hours before it snowballed into a Category 5 hurricane, the highest ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates storms based on their sustained wind speeds.

"It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation," the hurricane center said Tuesday morning. "Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida."

Tampa-area streets are still lined with miles of debris from Hurricane Helene. The goal, according to Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, was to have most of it cleared by Tuesday, but the city fell short on that.

"Rumors that we don't have enough resources, that could not be further from the truth," Castor said in a news briefing Tuesday. "The federal government, the state government, the county, the city, private entities, are working hand-in-hand, first and foremost, to get that household debris up and out of the way, and secondly to make sure everyone is safe as we endure whatever Milton brings our way."

John Antapasis, emergency management director for the city of Tampa, knows just how vulnerable his city is to hurricanes.

"There's a lot of vulnerable infrastructure here, and the geography itself that potentially, you know, puts us just much at more risk," Antapasis said.

Antapasis said the storm surge is the one thing that makes him worry at night when he goes to sleep.

"It's the storm surge on this one," Antapasis said. "Ultimately our first responders, we're going to be here, we're going to try to save lives, protect property first. And then we will go through that recovery process if that does happen to us."

Eurydice Stanley rode out Helene in her Tampa-area home, but evacuated to Tallahassee on Monday.

"People are staying at home, but these storms are different, ask the citizens of of Asheville, North Carolina," Stanley told CBS News.

And while millions of people in the Tampa area are under a mandatory evacuation, and many have left, some aren't going anywhere. Bridgit Budd, who resides on Sanibel Island, is among those who says she is staying. Budd and her husband have ridden out for major hurricanes before, including Helene.

"There's just no place I would rather be," Budd told CBS News. "You know, I don't suggest it for anybody. I'm not promoting it."

Evacuation zones

Mass evacuations were underway as the storm approached. Florida airports canceled flights and schools as far south as Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties announced closures ahead of Milton's expected arrival. Thousands fled the Tampa Bay area and parts of the surrounding region were under mandatory evacuation orders issued Monday and Tuesday.

As tens of thousands flee Milton's path, the Georgia Department of Transportation reported that it saw traffic volumes as of 8 a.m. Tuesday on Interstate 75 that were 280% higher than normal between the Georgia and Florida state line.

The Port of Key West has closed ahead of Milton's arrival, CBS Miami reports, with cruise ships bypassing the port. Several Orlando area theme parks were also shuttering, including Walt Disney World, SeaWorld Orlando and Universal Studios Florida.

United said Tuesday night that it had added 18 extra flights out of Florida, as well larger aircraft on four of those flights in an effort to serve as many customers as possible. It said all flights out of Tampa, Fort Myers and Sarasota were full through Thursday.

Aviation analytics company Circium reported that 80% of flights from Tampa were canceled Tuesday.

"We are talking about the possibility now of a direct hit," said Tampa Mayor Jane Castor in a CNN interview Monday, where she urged people to heed storm warnings and follow evacuation protocols. Castor noted that storm surge caused by Helene, while destructive, was significantly lower than the surge forecast for a vast stretch of Florida's western coast, including Tampa, with Milton.

"Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic. And I can say, without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die," Castor said.

President Biden echoed the mayor Tuesday morning as the White House announced he would postpone a trip to Germany and Angola to monitor the response to Hurricane Milton.

"I've urged everyone, everyone currently located in Hurricane Milton's path to listen to local officials and follow safety instructions," Mr. Biden said. "... If you're under evacuation orders, you should evacuate now, now, now — you should have already evacuated. It's a matter of life and death."

Mr. Biden said he preapproved emergency declarations in Florida and sent Criswell to the state Monday. The president also said he has spoken to all political leaders in the region expected to feel Milton's impacts and told them, "Anything they ask for, they can get."

Hurricane Milton live radar map

This radar loop from CBS Miami shows weather conditions over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Milton approaches.