Please be prepared for severe weather today. The chance for severe weather is highest from 6 p.m. through 11 p.m. tonight. Right now it looks like most of your day is going to be dry and there are going to be a lot of folks that don't see a drop of rain throughout the entire day.
Model data continues to show a broken line of storms sliding through our area after 5 p.m. this afternoon. Mercer County and places located in the northwest, in most parts of Western Pennsylvania, will see the first rain with storms tracking southeast. Forward speeds will be high, meaning that storms will hit with a wind punch of a minute or two before rain kicks in. As rain rates pick up the hail chance will increase.
The other big story today is the heat and just how hot we will get.
Yesterday's high of 94° is tied for the hottest of the year so far. With rain chances as low as they are (even with the storm chance) we should see temperatures warmer than yesterday. There are a slew of reasons, including compressional heating ahead of the short wave, today being the hottest air mass in place of the week, and a steady southwesterly wind transporting hotter temperatures than yesterday. Skies will also be partly cloudy, similar to what they were yesterday.
I am forecasting a high in Pittsburgh of 95°. Plenty hot. I have noon temperatures near 90 already.
Looking ahead we stay hot on Thursday and Friday. I have Thursday's high hitting the upper 80s. I am forecasting a high of 90° on Friday.
The heat will start to move out this weekend. There's a lot of uncertainty about what to expect this weekend as a cool front slides through.
Today's data indicates the cold front won't pass through until Sunday afternoon. Rain totals for Saturday have dipped dramatically from yesterday, and model data is showing Sunday dry. While certainly possible we should see some rain as the cold front sweeps through.
At this point, I will maintain a low rain chance on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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