Projecting USA Women's Basketball's 2028 Olympics roster: Caitlin Clark likely to replace Diana Taurasi

The United States women's national basketball team has done it again. For the eighth consecutive time, Team USA has won the gold medal at the Olympics, this year with a nail-biting 67-66 win over the host country, France, in a raucous environment in Paris.

It was a back-and-forth affair throughout, and France nearly sent it to overtime thanks to a fourth-quarter buzzer-beater from Gabby Williams. However, the Americans held on for a one-point win in regulation as Williams' foot was just inside the 3-point line.

The next time the Americans compete for Olympic gold, they'll do so on home soil in Los Angeles in 2028. A lot can, and will, change in the next four years, but here's an early look at what the roster for that tournament might look like.

Locks

• A'ja Wilson
• Breanna Stewart
• Napheesa Collier
• Jackie Young
• Sabrina Ionescu

There's no need to spend too much time explaining the first two names in this group. Wilson and Stewart have been battling for the title of best player in the world for a few years now, and they still might be by the time the 2028 games roll around. Regardless, of where they stand in those rankings in four years, they'll be automatic selections.

Collier, Young and Ionescu, meanwhile, are the three other players on the roster that are 27 or younger. Youth alone does not guarantee a spot for 2028, but youth plus elite skill plus versatility does. This trio are currently among the most influential Americans in Paris and should only be better in four years.

More likely than not

• Kahleah Copper
• Jewell Loyd
• Kelsey Plum

As we saw with this summer's roster selection process, USA Basketball has always favored experience, both overall and specifically with Team USA, which gives this group a big leg up heading into 2028. Loyd and Plum have two World Cup and two Olympic golds apiece, while Copper has a World Cup and Olympic gold.

Copper is one of the best downhill drivers in the world and an elite athlete who can cause havoc defensively. Loyd and Plum are both elite individual scorers who can space the floor and provide secondary playmaking. It would be a surprise if any of them miss out in 2028.

So why are they not considered locks? Two reasons: age and incoming backcourt talent. All three of them will be in their early-to-mid-30s for the next cycle, which is certainly not disqualifying, but does put them at a slightly higher risk for injury or a decline in performance. Then, you have to consider the up-and-coming guards who will be knocking on the door for a spot. In addition to Caitlin Clark, who will be on the team, Rhyne Howard, Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins all figure to be in the mix, and none of them will be WNBA rookies in 2028.

Aging vets

• Brittney Griner
• Alyssa Thomas
• Chelsea Gray

This group is where things will really get interesting. Yes, experience is important to USA Basketball, but it's rare for players 35 years or older to make the Olympic roster. Since this incredible Olympic winning streak started back in 1992, just six players in that age bracket have made the team, and only once (2020) have three such players been included.

History would tell us that it's unlikely all three of these aging vets will make the roster. Griner should have the best chance given her size and ability to dominate in the paint on both ends. Even at 37, international opponents simply wouldn't have an answer for Griner. Thomas' unique skill set and comfort playing the physical style of basketball that FIBA rules inspire would seem to give her the next best odds. That brings us to Gray, who appears to be the most vulnerable of this bunch. Not only has she really struggled in her return from injury this season, but there are a ton of young guards waiting in the wings.

Retired

• Diana Taurasi

Taurasi made history in Paris with her sixth gold medal, which is the most in Olympic history by any basketball player, men or women. She will not, however, be going for a seventh. Asked last month if there was any chance we would see her in 2028, Taurasi said, "Yeah, you're gonna see me in L.A. on the beach with a beer." She would be 46 by then, and even by her incredible standards, that's a bridge too far.

Guaranteed replacements

• Caitlin Clark

Clark nearly became the fifth WNBA rookie to make a Team USA Olympic roster this summer, but was ultimately a controversial cut. There will be no such dramatics ahead of the 2028 games; Clark, arguably already the best playmaker in the world, will be one of the first names on the team sheet. For the sake of this exercise, we can consider her a direct replacement for Taurasi.

Potential replacements

• Shakira Austin
• Aliyah Boston
• Cameron Brink
• Paige Bueckers
• Rhyne Howard
• Rickea Jackson
• Flau'jae Johnson
• Angel Reese
• JuJu Watkins

The amount of young talent in the game right now is incredible, and the next Olympics being at home will only add more incentive to make the Team USA roster.

There could be other players who arise over the next few years, but here's a look at nine potential names that have a chance to be in the mix. Howard is the only one with actual Olympic experience (she was part of the 3x3 team this year), which is a boost for her odds, but all of them have played in the national team set-up in one form or another.

As always, the "problem," is that so many players will be deserving, but only so many spots will be available. Outside of Diana Taurasi, who will be replaced by Caitlin Clark, there are no guaranteed departures from this year's roster, and it will be interesting to see how much turnover actually happens. Since 1996, there have been an average of 5.4 changes per cycle. The most in that stretch was seven from 2000 to 2004 and the fewest was three from 2012 to 2016.

Barring some unforeseen circumstances, the most likely outcome is a few changes for the 2028 team and a major overhaul in 2032. Here, Diana Taurasi, Chelsea Gray and Alyssa Thomas have been replaced by Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers and Aliyah Boston.

2028 roster