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Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: NFL sleepers, breakouts, busts by model that nailed Deebo Samuel's weak year
By CBS Sports Staff,
2 days ago
USATSI
Last year was the season of Achilles injuries. This year, three stars in the 2024 Fantasy football rankings will try to prove they can still be assets to 2024 Fantasy football lineups less than 12 months after suffering the injury. Veteran quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins along with running back JK Dobbins are likely players who will be among the top 2024 Fantasy football picks, but how high should these players be in the Fantasy football rankings 2024? Dobbins is 25 years old, so he has youth on his side, but Rodgers is 40 and Cousins turned 36 in August, so will they still be top Fantasy football 2024 targets at their age? How should those unknowns factor into your 2024 Fantasy football strategy?
Last year, the model accurately predicted that Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was being dramatically undervalued. White was coming off the board in the seventh round on average in 12-team PPR leagues, but he emerged as Tampa Bay's workhorse ball carrier and provided significantly more value than expected, finishing No. 4 at his position. White rushed for 990 yards and six touchdowns while adding 64 catches for 549 yards and three more scores as a receiver. Anybody who followed the model's advice scored an every week starting running back in the middle rounds.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020 and nailing Jonathan Taylor's monstrous season in 2021. Additionally, it's called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anybody who banked on players like those made a run at their league title.
The model is powered by the same people who generated projections for all three major Fantasy sites, and it beat human experts last season when there was a big difference in ranking. The 2024 Fantasy football PPR rankings and 2024 Fantasy football standard projections update multiple times daily, so you're always getting the best Fantasy football advice.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest 2024 Fantasy football rankings, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them .
Top 2024 Fantasy football sleepers
One of the 2024 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. After averaging 4.9 yards per carry as an undrafted rookie out of Oklahoma State, Warren carved out an even larger role for himself in 2023. He rushed for 784 yards and four touchdowns while also catching 61 passes for 370 yards despite splitting time with Najee Harris in the backfield.
Warren averaged 5.3 yards per carry in 2023 while Harris only managed 4.1 yards per tote during a 1,000-yard season. Now the expectation is that Warren will have earned an even larger role in the offense and some are assuming that he could supplant Harris atop the depth chart. That's a big reason why the model ranks him ahead of guys like Austin Ekeler and Javonte Williams. See more Fantasy football sleepers 2024 here .
Top 2024 Fantasy football breakouts
One of the 2024 Fantasy football breakouts the model is predicting: Bengals running back Chase Brown. A 1,000-yard rusher in his last two seasons at the University of Illinois, Brown was a fifth-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, but was used sparingly as a reserve during his rookie season. He ran 44 times for 179 yards and added 14 receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown while playing behind Joe Mixon.
Now, Mixon is in Houston and Brown is battling for reps with former Bills and Colts running back Zack Moss. The model ranks Brown ahead of veterans like Devin Singletary and Gus Edwards, who are both being drafted ahead of him on average. See more Fantasy football breakouts 2024 here .
Top 2024 Fantasy football busts
As for players to avoid, the model lists Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk as one of its 2024 Fantasy football busts. Kirk missed the final five games of last season with a groin injury and injury risk has been a concern throughout his career with him playing in at least 15 games just twice over his first six NFL seasons. Although Kirk was 24th in the NFL in receiving yards per game (65.6 yards per game), he has only three touchdowns, resulting in him finishing outside the top 30 for Fantasy football wide receivers on a points-per-game basis.
Kirk is being selected inside the top 30 in the latest 2024 Fantasy football ADP, even though he finished outside the top 30 on a points-per-game basis and is outside the top 30 at his position in the model's projections. The Jaguars signed Gabe Davis and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, so there could be more target competition this year. Tight end Evan Engram was fourth in the NFL in receptions last season, so if Jacksonville heavily utilizes Engram again this season, that means even fewer opportunities for Kirk. Given his ADP and target competition this year, the model suggests avoiding Kirk in 2024 Fantasy football drafts. See more Fantasy football busts 2024 here
How to find proven 2024 Fantasy football football rankings
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