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2024 BMW Championship odds, predictions, prop bets: Scottie Scheffler picks from proven model
By CBS Sports Staff,
18 hours ago
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Scottie Scheffler has alternated tournament wins over his last six starts, which could make his fourth-place finish last week at the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs opener a good thing. Scheffler enters the 2024 BMW Championship this week not having gone back-to-back tournaments without a victory since May. The World No. 1 is among the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Playoffs standings to get invited to the BMW Championship 2024, which will tee off on Thursday at 9:25 a.m. ET from Castle Pines Golf Club in suburban Denver.
Scheffler, who tees off at 11 a.m. ET, is the +300 favorite (risk $100 to win $300) in the latest 2024 BMW Championship odds, while last week's winner in Hideki Matsuyama has +1800 odds, joining Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay at that number. Scheffler is still atop the FedEx Cup standings after one event, while the man in second place, Xander Schauffele, is also second on the PGA Tour odds board this week at +550. Rory McIlroy is at +1200 to utilize in BMW Championship 2024 bets. He's followed by Viktor Hovland (+1400) and Collin Morikawa (+1600).
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
One surprise: Finau (18-1) makes a strong run at the title. This tournament has bounced around different courses, but Finau has shown up almost everywhere it's been contested. He has five top 15s over his last seven BMW Championship starts. He won a FedEx Cup playoffs event in 2021 and enters this one on a roll, with three top 10s and five top-16 finishes over his last six tournament starts of any kind.
Castle Pines Golf Club has greens that are above average in size, but it also has tight pin locations, making accuracy on approach shots important. Finau is second on tour in strokes gained: approach the green, and putting himself in advantageous positions with his putter has led to Finau posting the seventh-highest birdie average. Finau has a much better chance to win than his long odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
The model has also examined where Scheffler (+300) finishes. The 28-year-old has spent 66 consecutive weeks now at No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking and he's having a historic year, with six PGA Tour wins (including a second green jacket) and his first Olympic gold medal. However, Scheffler is yet to win a FedEx Cup playoff tournament, going 0 for 13 in his career and failing to win in any of his four previous BMW Championship starts, although they all came at different courses than Castle Pines.
Scheffler is unparalleled when it comes to ball-striking, leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, SG: tee-to-green and SG: approach the green. He also ranks first in greens in regulation percentage and has the lowest scoring average (adjusted) on tour. The one hole in Scheffler's game appears when he arrives to the green as he ranks 83rd in SG: putting and 64th in total putting. How he can navigate the firm and fast Bent-Poa greens at Castile Pines will go a long way in determining if Scheffler picks up his first career FedEx Cup Playoffs victory. The model just locked in its Scottie Scheffler BMW Championship picks here.
How to make 2024 BMW Championship picks
The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .
Scottie Scheffler +300 Xander Schauffele +550 Rory McIlroy +1200 Viktor Hovland +1400 Collin Morikawa +1600 Tony Finau +1800 Hideki Matsuyama +1800 Patrick Cantlay +1800 Wyndham Clark +2000 Ludvig Aberg +2200 Tommy Fleetwood +2800 Russell Henley +3000 Sam Burns +3500 Billy Horschel +4000 Justin Thomas +4500 Corey Conners +5000 Sungjae Im +5000 Cameron Young +5000 Nick Dunlap +5000 Aaron Rai +5000 Sahith Theegala +5500 Adam Scott +5500 Jason Day +6000 Akshay Bhatia +6000 Will Zalatoris +6000 Davis Thompson +7000 Robert MacIntyre +7000 Matthew Fitzpatrick +7000 Taylor Pendrith +7500 Shane Lowry +8000 Max Greyserman +8000 Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000 Max Homa +8500 Si Woo Kim +8500 Brian Harman +9000 Byeong Hun An +9000 Sepp Straka +9000 Alex Noren +10000 Tom Hoge +10000 Keegan Bradley +10000 Denny McCarthy +10000 Austin Eckroat +12500 Cam Davis +12500 Eric Cole +12500 Thomas Detry +12500 Adam Hadwin +17500 Stephan Jaeger +17500 Chris Kirk +20000 J.T. Poston +22500 Matthieu Pavon +32500
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