2024 BMW Championship odds, predictions, prop bets: Scottie Scheffler picks from proven model

Scottie Scheffler has alternated tournament wins over his last six starts, which could make his fourth-place finish last week at the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs opener a good thing. Scheffler enters the 2024 BMW Championship this week not having gone back-to-back tournaments without a victory since May. The World No. 1 is among the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Playoffs standings to get invited to the BMW Championship 2024, which will tee off on Thursday at 9:25 a.m. ET from Castle Pines Golf Club in suburban Denver.

Scheffler, who tees off at 11 a.m. ET, is the +300 favorite (risk $100 to win $300) in the latest 2024 BMW Championship odds, while last week's winner in Hideki Matsuyama has +1800 odds, joining Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay at that number. Scheffler is still atop the FedEx Cup standings after one event, while the man in second place, Xander Schauffele, is also second on the PGA Tour odds board this week at +550. Rory McIlroy is at +1200 to utilize in BMW Championship 2024 bets. He's followed by Viktor Hovland (+1400) and Collin Morikawa (+1600).

Before locking in any 2024 BMW Championship picks, Scottie Scheffler props, or golf picks at sites like FanDuel, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, PrizePicks, or Pick6, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the BMW Championship 2024 locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 BMW Championship predictions

One surprise: Finau (18-1) makes a strong run at the title. This tournament has bounced around different courses, but Finau has shown up almost everywhere it's been contested. He has five top 15s over his last seven BMW Championship starts. He won a FedEx Cup playoffs event in 2021 and enters this one on a roll, with three top 10s and five top-16 finishes over his last six tournament starts of any kind.

Castle Pines Golf Club has greens that are above average in size, but it also has tight pin locations, making accuracy on approach shots important. Finau is second on tour in strokes gained: approach the green, and putting himself in advantageous positions with his putter has led to Finau posting the seventh-highest birdie average. Finau has a much better chance to win than his long odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

The model has also examined where Scheffler (+300) finishes. The 28-year-old has spent 66 consecutive weeks now at No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking and he's having a historic year, with six PGA Tour wins (including a second green jacket) and his first Olympic gold medal. However, Scheffler is yet to win a FedEx Cup playoff tournament, going 0 for 13 in his career and failing to win in any of his four previous BMW Championship starts, although they all came at different courses than Castle Pines.

Scheffler is unparalleled when it comes to ball-striking, leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, SG: tee-to-green and SG: approach the green. He also ranks first in greens in regulation percentage and has the lowest scoring average (adjusted) on tour. The one hole in Scheffler's game appears when he arrives to the green as he ranks 83rd in SG: putting and 64th in total putting. How he can navigate the firm and fast Bent-Poa greens at Castile Pines will go a long way in determining if Scheffler picks up his first career FedEx Cup Playoffs victory. The model just locked in its Scottie Scheffler BMW Championship picks here.

How to make 2024 BMW Championship picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 BMW Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the BMW Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2024 BMW Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and three of four majors in 2024 .

2024 BMW Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 BMW Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler +300
Xander Schauffele +550
Rory McIlroy +1200
Viktor Hovland +1400
Collin Morikawa +1600
Tony Finau +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Wyndham Clark +2000
Ludvig Aberg +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2800
Russell Henley +3000
Sam Burns +3500
Billy Horschel +4000
Justin Thomas +4500
Corey Conners +5000
Sungjae Im +5000
Cameron Young +5000
Nick Dunlap +5000
Aaron Rai +5000
Sahith Theegala +5500
Adam Scott +5500
Jason Day +6000
Akshay Bhatia +6000
Will Zalatoris +6000
Davis Thompson +7000
Robert MacIntyre +7000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +7000
Taylor Pendrith +7500
Shane Lowry +8000
Max Greyserman +8000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000
Max Homa +8500
Si Woo Kim +8500
Brian Harman +9000
Byeong Hun An +9000
Sepp Straka +9000
Alex Noren +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Austin Eckroat +12500
Cam Davis +12500
Eric Cole +12500
Thomas Detry +12500
Adam Hadwin +17500
Stephan Jaeger +17500
Chris Kirk +20000
J.T. Poston +22500
Matthieu Pavon +32500