2024 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets from proven model: This 5-way football parlay pays out 25-1

Saints vs. Panthers isn't one of the marquee matchups on the Week 1 NFL schedule, but perhaps it should be for NFL bettors. The game has the lowest total of the opening week at 40.5, and both teams leaned heavily towards the Under last season. Carolina hit the Under in a league-high 12 games a year ago, while New Orleans was just one behind at 11. Maybe just as pertinent to know before jumping on the Under on this game as part of your Week 1 NFL parlay picks is that the last seven matchups between these teams have gone under.

With NFL parlays being all-or-nothing propositions, you want to include NFL predictions that you're highly confident in. Which other Week 1 NFL bets related to NFL totals or NFL spreads also have overwhelming evidence for one side? Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Including the regular season and playoffs, Detroit had both the most spread wins (14) and the best cover percentage (70%) last season. The year before, it had the second best cover percentage (70.6%) and ranked fourth in 2021 (64.7%), with those three seasons coinciding with Dan Campbell's tenure. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Lions have four more ATS victories (26) than any other NFL team.

Detroit had a top-five offense in points and yards last year, and the Rams struggled to defend high-octane attacks. L.A. forced the third-fewest turnovers in 2023 and ranked in the bottom 10 in defensive sacks, and that was with Aaron Donald on the D-line. His retirement means the Rams lost their best player, which will make it a tough task to slow down a Detroit offense that ranked third in redzone scoring in 2023. The Lions (-3.5) are projected to cover with points to spare, beating the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here .

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine .

What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks , and find out.