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2024 BMW Championship odds, predictions, field: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy picks by advanced golf model
By CBS Sports Staff,
9 hours ago
USATSI
The 2024 BMW Championship is the final chance for PGA Tour golfers to secure their spot in the Tour Championship. The Tour Championship, the final event of the 2024 PGA Tour season, is unlike any other event where golfers start a certain amount of shots under par based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings. But before a champion is crowned, the 2024 BMW Championship is set to take place from Castle Pines Golf Club beginning on Thursday. Is there a golfer toward the middle of the standings who could pull out a victory at the 2024 BMW Championship and improve their place entering the final tournament of the PGA Tour season?
Scottie Scheffler, the leader in the current standings, is the +320 favorite in the latest 2024 BMW Championship odds, followed by Xander Schauffele at +650 and Rory McIlroy at +1000. Viktor Hovland, the defending champion of this event, is 16th in the standings and enters at 18-1 odds, but is he a longshot to include in 2024 BMW Championship bets? Before locking in your 2024 BMW Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
One surprise: McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the top favorites, does not crack the top five this week. McIlroy struggled at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship, finishing T-68, which resulted in him falling to fifth in the FedEx Cup standings. Couple that with missing the cut at the Open Championship, the final round blunders of the U.S. Open may be haunting McIlroy to close the summer.
McIlroy has only won one of his previous 13 BMW Championship appearances, which came way back in 2012. He's put together three top-five performances over his last eight BMW Championship tournaments, but he's never finished inside the top three since that 2012 victory. Driving distance has never been an issue for McIlroy and he ranks second in driving distance this year, but he's just 83rd in driving accuracy. Putting has been his biggest issue this year, as he ranks outside the top 40 in total putting and putting average while ranking 70th in strokes gained: putting. McIlroy is always a popular bet due to his name appeal and the model doesn't project value in him at his current price.
The model has also examined where Schauffele finishes. The Southern California native is now No. 2 in the world thanks to a strong second half of the season. He got his first career major victory at the PGA Championship in May and claimed another major win at the Open Championship. In total, he has 13 top-10 finishes overall in 2024.
Schauffele was primed to make a huge come-from-behind victory last weekend at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but ultimately finished second behind Matsuyama. He enters the BMW Championship ranked second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total (2.235), scoring average (68.44) and birdie average (4.35), while ranking first overall in scrambling around the green (70.91%). The model just locked in its Xander Schauffele BMW Championship picks here .
How to make 2024 BMW Championship picks
The model has revealed where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele finish, along with identifying three golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .
Scottie Scheffler +320 Xander Schauffele +650 Rory McIlroy +1000 Collin Morikawa +1200 Viktor Hovland +1800 Ludvig Aberg +1800 Hideki Matsuyama +1800 Patrick Cantlay +2200 Tommy Fleetwood +2500 Tony Finau +2500 Corey Conners +3000 Sam Burns +3000 Wyndham Clark +3500 Sungjae Im +3500 Cameron Young +4000 Billy Horschel +4000 Adam Scott +4000 Aaron Rai +4000 Russell Henley +4000 Justin Thomas +4000 Shane Lowry +4500 Sahith Theegala +4500 Jason Day +4500 Byeong Hun An +5000 Akshay Bhatia +5000 Matt Fitzpatrick +5000 Davis Thompson +5000 Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500 Robert MacIntyre +5500 Brian Harman +6000 Keegan Bradley +6000 Alex Noren +6500 Will Zalatoris +6500 Taylor Pendrith +6500 Max Greyserman +6500 Denny McCarthy +7000 Thomas Detry +7500 Si Woo Kim +7500 Sepp Straka +7500 Tom Hoge +8000 Nick Dunlap +8000 Max Homa +8000 Eric Cole +8000 Cam Davis +9000 Austin Eckroat +9000 J.T. Poston +11000 Chris Kirk +12000 Adam Hadwin +12000 Stephan Jaeger +12000 Matthieu Pavon +15000
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