2024 BMW Championship odds, predictions, field: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy picks by advanced golf model

The 2024 BMW Championship is the final chance for PGA Tour golfers to secure their spot in the Tour Championship. The Tour Championship, the final event of the 2024 PGA Tour season, is unlike any other event where golfers start a certain amount of shots under par based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings. But before a champion is crowned, the  2024 BMW Championship is set to take place from Castle Pines Golf Club beginning on Thursday. Is there a golfer toward the middle of the standings who could pull out a victory at the 2024 BMW Championship and improve their place entering the final tournament of the PGA Tour season?

Scottie Scheffler, the leader in the current standings, is the +320 favorite in the latest 2024 BMW Championship odds, followed by Xander Schauffele at +650 and Rory McIlroy at +1000. Viktor Hovland, the defending champion of this event, is 16th in the standings and enters at 18-1 odds, but is he a longshot to include in 2024 BMW Championship bets? Before locking in your 2024 BMW Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the BMW Championship 2024 field set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 BMW Championship golf predictions

One surprise: McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the top favorites, does not crack the top five this week. McIlroy struggled at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship, finishing T-68, which resulted in him falling to fifth in the FedEx Cup standings. Couple that with missing the cut at the Open Championship, the final round blunders of the U.S. Open may be haunting McIlroy to close the summer.

McIlroy has only won one of his previous 13 BMW Championship appearances, which came way back in 2012. He's put together three top-five performances over his last eight BMW Championship tournaments, but he's never finished inside the top three since that 2012 victory. Driving distance has never been an issue for McIlroy and he ranks second in driving distance this year, but he's just 83rd in driving accuracy. Putting has been his biggest issue this year, as he ranks outside the top 40 in total putting and putting average while ranking 70th in strokes gained: putting. McIlroy is always a popular bet due to his name appeal and the model doesn't project value in him at his current price.

The model has also examined where Schauffele finishes. The Southern California native is now No. 2 in the world thanks to a strong second half of the season. He got his first career major victory at the PGA Championship in May and claimed another major win at the Open Championship. In total, he has 13 top-10 finishes overall in 2024.

Schauffele was primed to make a huge come-from-behind victory last weekend at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but ultimately finished second behind Matsuyama. He enters the BMW Championship ranked second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total (2.235), scoring average (68.44) and birdie average (4.35), while ranking first overall in scrambling around the green (70.91%). The model just locked in its Xander Schauffele BMW Championship picks here .

How to make 2024 BMW Championship picks

The model has revealed where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele finish, along with identifying three golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 BMW Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the BMW Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected BMW Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters, the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open .

2024 BMW Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 BMW Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler +320
Xander Schauffele +650
Rory McIlroy +1000
Collin Morikawa +1200
Viktor Hovland +1800
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Corey Conners +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Wyndham Clark +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Cameron Young +4000
Billy Horschel +4000
Adam Scott +4000
Aaron Rai +4000
Russell Henley +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Shane Lowry +4500
Sahith Theegala +4500
Jason Day +4500
Byeong Hun An +5000
Akshay Bhatia +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Davis Thompson +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Robert MacIntyre +5500
Brian Harman +6000
Keegan Bradley +6000
Alex Noren +6500
Will Zalatoris +6500
Taylor Pendrith +6500
Max Greyserman +6500
Denny McCarthy +7000
Thomas Detry +7500
Si Woo Kim +7500
Sepp Straka +7500
Tom Hoge +8000
Nick Dunlap +8000
Max Homa +8000
Eric Cole +8000
Cam Davis +9000
Austin Eckroat +9000
J.T. Poston +11000
Chris Kirk +12000
Adam Hadwin +12000
Stephan Jaeger +12000
Matthieu Pavon +15000