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Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: Busts from veteran NFL model that nailed Jaylen Waddle's rough season
By CBS Sports Staff,
1 day ago
USATSI
The Miami Dolphins have elite speed at nearly every position on the field. The combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is arguably the fastest receiver combination in the NFL, while running backs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane can break off huge runs at any moment. All four are highly coveted 2024 Fantasy football picks, but will the presence of one hold back the other for 2024 Fantasy football projections? Mostert and Achane finished as top-five Fantasy football running backs on a points-per-game basis, but Mostert finished as he RB5 overall after playing in 15 games, while Achane was the RB23 in 11 games.
Last year, the model accurately predicted that Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle would fail to live up to his Fantasy football ADP. Waddle's 2023 Fantasy football ADP was 34.86 overall and he was the 11th receiver off the board on average. He'd go on to notch a 1,000-yard season but only had 72 receptions with four touchdowns and he'd finish as the No. 34 Fantasy football wide receiver in CBS Sports PPR leagues.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020 and nailing Jonathan Taylor's monstrous season in 2021. Additionally, it's called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anybody who banked on players like those made a run at their league title.
The model is powered by the same people who generated projections for all three major Fantasy sites, and it beat human experts last season when there was a big difference in ranking. The 2024 Fantasy football PPR rankings and 2024 Fantasy football standard projections update multiple times daily, so you're always getting the best Fantasy football advice.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2024, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them .
Top 2024 Fantasy football busts
One of the 2024 Fantasy football busts the model is predicting: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. Nobody is suggesting a regression or a poor season from the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft who had one of the most successful rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. However, maybe the hype around him and the Houston offense needs to cool off a little bit. Stroud is going as the QB5 in ADP despite finishing as QB11 overall and ninth on a points-per-game basis. He will have some help in the passing game after trading for Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell (leg) back from injury, but he's still going considerably high based on one season of results.
Stroud finished eighth in the NFL in passing yards (4,108) and third in passing yards per game (273.9), which was the most for a quarterback who started at least 10 games. But the fact that he doesn't run (167 yards last season) limits his upside with dual-threat quarterbacks taking over in Fantasy football over recent seasons. Due to his lack of rushing, the model has Stroud ranked barely inside its top 10 Fantasy quarterbacks for this season, resulting in him becoming a 2024 Fantasy football bust based on ADP.
Another bust that SportsLine's Fantasy football rankings 2024 have identified: 49ers tight end George Kittle. Kittle's 12.7 PPR points per game last year was good enough to finish as the sixth-best tight end in Fantasy. However, it was still a six-year low for San Francisco's veteran tight end.
Fantasy owners should also note that Kittle saw a decline in target share last season, averaging 5.6 targets per game. Kittle is among the most entertaining tight ends in the game, but the model doesn't expect he'll live up to his 6th-round ADP in 2024. In fact, the model is projecting Kittle to finish behind both Dalton Kincaid and Evan Engram this season, two TEs that are being drafted at least two rounds later on average. See which other Fantasy football busts 2024 to avoid here .
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