2024 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets from proven model: This 5-way football parlay would pay out 25-1

With Jayden Daniels officially being named Washington's starter, the reigning Heisman winner will begin his pro career against another Heisman winner, Baker Mayfield, as part of the Week 1 NFL schedule. Commanders vs. Buccaneers is a matchup featuring two teams that performed vastly differently against the spread in 2023. Tampa had the third-most ATS wins at 12-7, while Washington had the third-fewest at 6-10-1. Thus, adding this game to your Week 1 NFL parlay picks seems like a smart decision if you think that NFL betting trend will carry over to this season.

However, that NFL betting strategy can be risky since no one saw Tampa being better in 2023 under Mayfield than in 2022 under Tom Brady. Having the optimal pro football betting advice for your Week 1 NFL predictions would help avoid potential trap games and also identify games to consider for your NFL predictions. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Detroit defeated the Rams in the Wild Card Round of last season, and these teams seemingly went in opposite directions in the offseason. There's no single player or committee that can replace three-time DPOY Aaron Donald for L.A., while the Rams also lost three starting DBs and their defensive coordinator. Those are big losses for what was already Los Angeles' weakness as the team ranked 30th in turnovers forced and was in the bottom 10 in defensive sacks.

On the other hand, some of Detroit's best players such as Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs were rookies last year, so they should only improve. Detroit ranked in the top five in passing offense, rushing offense and rushing defense last year, making passing defense the unit to upgrade. It did just that, using its first two draft picks on cornerbacks and by adding CB Carlton Davis, formerly of the Bucs. Add in the huge home-field advantage the Lions will have with hosting the first Sunday night game of the season, and the model has them covering as 3.5-point favorites well over 50% of the time. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here .

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine .

What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks , and find out.