Best NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 1, 2024: Fade this home favorite

The 2024 NFL schedule is loaded with highly-anticipated matchups and Week 1 is no different, with four games between playoff teams from a season ago. However, the magnitude of the game shouldn't be a primary concern as you make your Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks. Most players making NFL knockout pool picks have a tendency to lean towards heavy Vegas favorites, so crafting an NFL survivor strategy that allows you to avoid major trap games can lead to you sitting pretty while large swaths of your opponents are eliminated early in the season.

The 49ers are four-point favorites over the Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 1 but with the return of Aaron Rodgers, there's potential for the Jets to make this a statement game after a disappointing 7-10 season in 2023. Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins , even though they're coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. Both teams started hot but fizzled late, with the Jaguars going 8-3 before losing five of six and missing the playoffs while the Dolphins found themselves visiting Arrowhead Stadium on a frigid night during NFL Wild Card Weekend because they were beaten soundly by the Ravens and Bills late in the season.

The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley this offseason but they think they've more than made up for it by signing Gabe Davis from Buffalo and drafting Brian Thomas, Jr. in the first round, a 6-foot-5 receiver from LSU who had 68 catches for 1,177 yards and an NCAA-leading 17 touchdowns in his final season in Baton Rouge. Trevor Lawrence threw for 319 yards and a touchdown in a 2021 win over the Dolphins and fellow Class of 2021 quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the Jaguars passing attack could cause problems for a Miami pass defense that ranked 25th in passing touchdowns allowed in 2023. See which team to pick here .

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine .

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception .