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Eagles vs. Packers prediction, odds, line, time, spread: 2024 NFL in Brazil picks by top model on 181-129 run
By CBS Sports Staff,
11 hours ago
USATSI
Week 1 of the NFL season features the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers squaring off in São Paulo, Brazil, on Friday, September 6. Both teams made the playoffs last season and will try to start the 2024 season with an early victory. The Eagles won 10 of their first 11 games last season before stumbling down the stretch, losing six of their final seven games, including a 32-9 setback against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. The Packers started the season 3-6 in 2023, but won their final three regular-season games before eventually losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
The Eagles added one of the NFL's best running backs this offseason. Saquon Barkley signed a three-year, $37.75 million contract that could be worth up to $46.75 million and included $26 million fully guaranteed at signing. Barkley has rushed for more than 5,200 yards while racking up 47 total touchdowns in his first six seasons in the NFL. He'll join a Philadelphia offense that is loaded with proven playmakers, including Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Hurts struggled with turnovers last season, throwing 15 interceptions, but he was one of the most effective running quarterbacks in the league, finishing with 15 rushing touchdowns. Brown hauled in 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023, while Smith also had seven receiving TDs and more than 1,000 receiving yards. The Eagles will look to take advantage of a Packers defense that gave up 335.1 yards per game last season, which ranked 17th in the NFL. See who to back at SportsLine .
Why the Packers can cover
Green Bay got off to a disappointing 3-6 start in 2023 and some fans were wondering if the organization had made the right decision moving on from Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. However, Jordan Love came on strong in the second half, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,150 yards and 20 touchdowns with only one interception over his final eight games. He also led Green Bay to a playoff win and nearly upset the 49ers in the divisional round, which helped him earn a four-year, $220 million extension this offseason.
The Packers have impressive wide receiver depth with Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, and they'll try to attack an Eagles secondary that ranked second-to-last in the NFL in pass defense. Green Bay has covered the spread in four of its last five games entering the 2024 season and is also 12-6 against the number in its last 18 games against NFC opponents. See who to back at SportsLine .
How to make Eagles vs. Packers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks .
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