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College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2024: Proven model likes Penn State in best bets
By CBS Sports Staff,
2 days ago
USATSI
While many schools loaded up on talent from the transfer portal during the offseason, No. 14 Clemson heads into the season with primarily its same roster as last year. The Tigers return junior quarterback Cade Klubnik and senior running back Phil Mafah , who they will rely heavily on when they face top-ranked Georgia during the Week 1 college football schedule. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, landed several stars from the transfer portal. Quarterback Carson Beck also returns after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards last season, and Georgia is listed as a 13-point favorite in the Week 1 college football odds via SportsLine consensus.
Other showdowns in Week 1 include No. 20 Texas A&M (-3) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame , No. 13 LSU (-4.5) vs. No. 23 USC and No. 10 Florida State (-15.5) vs. Boston College. Those games are spread throughout the weekend, giving fans plenty of options when it comes to Week 1 college football bets. Before locking in any college football picks for Week 1 of the 2024 season, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine's proven model .
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.
One of the college picks the model is high on during Week 1: No. 8 Penn State (-8.5) cruises to a blowout win over West Virginia at noon ET on Saturday. These teams met to open the 2023 season as well, with Penn State covering the spread as a 21-point favorite in a 38-15 victory. The Nittany Lions have now covered the spread in six straight games against Big 12 opponents, and they have covered at a 15-4-1 clip in their last 20 games overall.
West Virginia has struggled against Big Ten teams, going 2-6 against the spread in its last eight such games. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar had 25 passing touchdowns and just two interceptions last season, and he could improve even more under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnecki. The Nittany Lions outgained the Mountaineers by 170 yards in last year's opener, and they are covering the spread in more than 70% of the model's simulations. See which other picks the model likes here .
Another prediction: Western Kentucky (+32) stays within the spread at No. 5 Alabama in a 7 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. The Hilltoppers lost starting quarterback Austin Reed to the NFL, but head coach Tyson Helton was able to land a high-level replacement from the transfer portal. TJ Finley began his career at LSU in 2020 before making stops at Auburn and Texas State , throwing for 3,439 yards and 24 touchdowns last year.
He is familiar with facing SEC opponents, and there are several experienced wide receivers playing alongside him. The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 Saturday road games, and their high-powered offense should be able to do some damage against a rebuilding Alabama defense. SportsLine's model has the Hilltoppers scoring 16 points, which is enough to cover the spread in well over 50% of the latest simulations. See the rest of the model's picks here .
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