2024 Tour Championship odds, predictions, field: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy picks by proven golf model

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has headlined the FedEx Cup standings for almost the entire 2024 season, and he is sitting atop the leaderboard heading into the 2024 Tour Championship this week. Scheffler has been rewarded with a two-stroke starting lead over Xander Schauffele prior to Thursday's first round at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. The 12-time PGA Tour winner is the -110 favorite (risk $110 to win $100) in the 2024 Tour Championship odds, while Schauffele is +240 and Hideki Matsuyama is +1200. All 30 golfers in the 2024 Tour Championship field have been assigned starting strokes based on their position in the standings.

Scheffler was unable to maintain his starting strokes lead in 2022 and 2023, and he is coming off a disappointing T33 finish in last week's BMW Championship. Should you fade him with your 2024 Tour Championship bets? Before locking in your 2024 Tour Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the Tour Championship 2024 field set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Tour Championship golf predictions

One surprise: McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the top favorites, does not crack the top five this week. McIlroy won the Tour Championship in 2016, 2019 and 2022, entering the tournament with odds between 6-1 and 8-1 all three years. He has only picked up one win in an individual event this season though, which came in the Wells Fargo Championship three months ago.

McIlroy has struggled to post consistent results since missing a pair of close putts down the stretch of the U.S. Open, finishing outside the top 10 in three of his last four events. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and finished T68 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship to open the playoffs. The model does not expect McIlroy to contend for the title this weekend, recommending that bettors look elsewhere on the PGA odds board for value.

The model has also examined where Schauffele finishes. Schauffele has done his best to push Scheffler for the top spot in the standings, winning the first two majors of his career this summer. He broke through with a win in the PGA Championship before solidifying his No. 2 ranking with a win in the Open Championship.

Schauffele has finished inside the top five in the first two legs of the playoffs, including a T2 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and fifth in total driving, but he is No. 133 in proximity. The 30-year-old has finished inside the top five at the Tour Championship five times since his title in 2017, so he will be looking to add another title this year. The model just locked in its Xander Schauffele Tour Championship picks here .

How to make 2024 Tour Championship picks

The model has revealed where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele finish, along with identifying three golfers with odds of 35-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 Tour Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Tour Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Tour Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters, the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open .

2024 Tour Championship starting scores, odds to win

Get full 2024 Tour Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler (-10) -110
Xander Schauffele (-8) +240
Hideki Matsuyama (-7) +1200
Keegan Bradley (-6) +3500
Ludvig Åberg (-5) +1800
Rory McIlroy (-4) +1800
Collin Morikawa (-4) +2800
Wyndham Clark (-4) +5000
Sam Burns (-4) +5000
Patrick Cantlay (-4) +3500
Sungjae Im (-3) +4000
Sahith Theegala (-3) +17500
Shane Lowry (-3) +15000
Adam Scott (-3) +10000
Tony Finau (-3) +10000
Byeong Hun An (-2) +30000
Viktor Hovland (-2) +8000
Russell Henley (-2) +17500
Akshay Bhatia (-2) +40000
Robert MacIntyre (-2) +35000
Billy Horschel (-1) +40000
Tommy Fleetwood (-1) +12500
Sepp Straka (-1) +50000
Matthieu Pavon (-1) +250000
Taylor Pendrith (-1) +75000
Chris Kirk (E) +200000
Tom Hoge (E) +150000
Aaron Rai (E) +75000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (E) +100000
Justin Thomas (E) +40000