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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model targeting Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024

By CBS Sports Staff,

2 days ago

https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=1WGk7S_0vBUZlmN00 — USATSI

Noticing NFL betting trends can help you make Week 1 NFL picks, and there is a clear trend with the Seattle Seahawks. They failed to cover in their five interconference games last season, which is pertinent for the Week 1 NFL schedule. That's because the Seahawks will face a non-conference opponent, the Denver Broncos, who will have rookie Box Nix under center. Should you feel confident about backing the rookie and his team with your Week 1 NFL bets?

This is one of six AFC vs. NFC matchups in Week 1, including Steelers vs. Falcons (-3), Titans vs. Bears (-4.5) and Jets vs. 49ers (-4). Since divisional matchups can end up closer than expected due to the teams' familiarity, does that mean facing an unfamiliar opponent should lead to lopsided scores and influence your Week 1 NFL predictions? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread , money line , and over-under , and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick .

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . The Chargers have both won and covered each of their last three home games against the Raiders, winning by an average of 8.8 points per game. Justin Herbert has a 7:1 TD:INT over those contests, with twice as many rushing touchdowns than interceptions.

Vegas is also projected to have offensive struggles, considering it will roll out journeyman Gardner Minshew at QB and the unproven Zamir White at RB. The Raiders really had nothing to hang their hats on offensively last year, ranking in the bottom 10 in points scored, yards gained, rushing offense, passing offense, third-down conversion and redzone scoring. Minshew isn't known as one who elevates offenses, and he won't have the luxury of former rushing champ Josh Jacobs in the backfield. The Chargers (-3.5) are forecasted to cover nearly 60% of the time, while the model backs the Over (42.5) in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-5.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals . Josh Allen simply takes his game to another level when in front of Bills Mafia as last season he had 25 total touchdowns versus eight turnovers at home compared to 19 TDs and 14 TOs on the road. His legs will also be a huge asset in this game as the Cardinals allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks last season.

Kyler Murray's legs could cause the Bills problems as well, but his arm may lose potency against Buffalo's pass defense. The Bills allowed the second-fewest pass TDs (18) in 2023 while intercepting the third-most passes (18). They were one of just three teams to not allow more passing TDs than INTs, and the Bills also ranked fourth in the league in getting to the quarterback (54 sacks). With Buffalo's huge advantage on defense, the Bills (-6.5) cover in nearly 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine .

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 , and find out.