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Eagles vs. Packers prediction, odds, line, spread, time: 2024 NFL in Brazil picks from model on 181-129 roll
By CBS Sports Staff,
2 days ago
USATSI
The National Football League will head to South America for the first time with the 2024 NFL in Brazil game on Friday, September 6. The Green Bay Packers will face the Philadelphia Eagles, as South America will become the fifth continent to host a preseason or regular season game. Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts, both of the 2020 draft class, will meet for the first time as Eagles vs. Packers is one of just four games on the Week 1 NFL schedule pitting playoff teams from a season ago.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
It's hard to ignore the late-season collapse by Philadelphia last year, but you also can't dismiss its overall body of work. The Eagles ranked in the top eight in points scored and yards gained, with that side of the ball only getting stronger with the additions of running back Saquon Barkley and receiver Jahan Dotson. The unstoppable "Tush Push" hasn't gone anywhere, and the Eagles upgraded their offensive coordinator by nabbing Kellen Moore, who led Dallas to the No. 1 total offense in two of his four years with the team.
Love emerged over the second half of last year, but he's still inexperienced and also has a losing record (5-7) away from Lambeau Field. The Packers also had the league's fifth-worst run defense last year, which isn't a strong sign against a team that is as run-heavy as the Eagles. Add in that the Packers don't generate turnovers -- they had the second-fewest defensive interceptions in 2023 -- and the Eagles could move the ball up and down the field in Brazil. See who to back at SportsLine .
Why the Packers can cover
The Eagles might've had the better regular season record at 11-6 last year, but if there's any momentum carryover from last year, it belongs to the Packers. Despite its 9-8 regular-season mark, Green Bay finished the year hot, winning six of its final eight regular season games. Green Bay then stunned the Cowboys 48-32 in the Wild-Card Round before falling 24-21 to the 49ers in the divisional round.
Philly gave up 30.6 points per game in its final seven contests last year, the second-worst mark in the NFL during that stretch. The Packers, meanwhile, were the youngest team to win a playoff game since 1970 last year, and they bring a majority of that roster back, plus the addition of veteran running back Josh Jacobs, giving them a great chance to win or at least cover as slight underdogs. See who to back at SportsLine .
How to make Eagles vs. Packers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks .
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