2024 NFL futures: Packers win NFC North? Why the SportsLine Projection Model loves Green Bay

With a Packers logo emblazoned on his gray sweatshirt and a million-dollar smile on his face, Jordan Love strode to the podium at the team's complex on July 27. Less than 24 hours earlier, He had agreed to a $220 million contract extension with Green Bay, tying him for the highest-paid player in NFL history. For the next 20 minutes, he would face questions about being the league's newest highest-paid player.

Love began his opening statement by saying he was "blessed." Then he thanked the Packers organization and agents, among others. After a few more less-than-memorable quotes, Love concluded his statement by saying, "I'm ready to get to work and prepare ourselves for the season ahead and chase the ultimate goal that we have of winning the Super Bowl ."

Super Bowl ? For this Green Bay team? Indeed, expectations are high both among the Packers and for the Packers this season. One season after reaching the divisional round of the playoffs despite being the league's youngest team, Green Bay has the look of a real contender.

In fact, the SportsLine Projection Model is bullish on the Packers this season. The model -- which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception -- is picking Over 9.5 wins (-135) for the Packers as well as Green Bay to win the NFC North (+200).

According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, the reason behind the model's affection for the Packers is Love. Last season Green Bay started slowly and played a number of games at home before Love, who was in his first year as the starter, took off. As a result, the team averaged just 19.4 points per game with a -0.6 point differential at home. But on the road (including the playoffs) the Packers averaged 27.0 points and had a +4.6 point differential.

For this season, the model projects Love to be the fifth-best Fantasy football quarterback. The model also forecasts that he leads the league in touchdown passes (which is +1600 at DraftKings ).

"The model, accurately, is assuming the Love you saw in his final 11 games (2.3 passing touchdowns per game), in which he thrived on the road and/or in challenging weather conditions, is poised to move closer to the mean at home, which means a Packers point differential as good, or better, than their road differential," Oh says. "This would make the Packers a top-five team in the league and, certainly, a double-digit win team."

The model's simulations give the Packers, who open the season against the Eagles in Brazil on Sept. 6, more than a 66% chance to go Over 9.5 wins. That means the Over 9.5 wins (-135) at DraftKings , which implies a 57% chance, represents almost +10 percentage points of value.

The model also recommends taking Green Bay to win the NFC North and has the Packers as a value play to win the NFC and Super Bowl. The Packers are winning the division more than 48.7% of the time in the model's simulations, and some sportsbooks are still offering them as long as +200 (33.3% odds). Meanwhile, the Packers have a 14.7% chance to win the conference, which is more than the odds of their +750 price (11.8%). They also win the Super Bowl 7.1% of the time, while their price is +1600 (5.9%).

In fact, Green Bay is considered the model's No. 2-rated team in NFC and No. 6 overall, just behind the Bengals and just ahead of the Bills .

Note: In the offseason, the Packers added running back Josh Jacobs and installed new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Jacobs, who rushed for 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons, replaces Aaron Jones , who rushed for four scores over the same time. Meanwhile Hafley takes over a porous defense, which ranked 28th in the league against the run (128.3 yards per game) and 17th in total defense (335.1 yards per game) under former coordinator Joe Barry.

But, according to Oh, those moves to add Jacobs and Hafley did not have any impact on the model's projections. So those who believe Jacobs and Hafley are upgrades over their predecessors could look upon the Packers even more favorably than the model.

As for Week 1, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Packers and Philadelphia Eagles, which will take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil next Friday. However, that game isn't one of the five with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the season's opening week. You can find those top-tier Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.