2024 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets from advanced model: This five-way football parlay pays 25-1

Dolphins vs. Jaguars might not have the cachet of the other NFL games on the Week 1 NFL schedule, but this Florida matchup could have postseason implications in the AFC playoff picture. Both teams started the season red-hot in 2023 before fizzling late, with the Dolphins being handled by the Chiefs during NFL Wild Card Weekend and the Jaguars missing the playoffs after an 8-3 start. Miami is a 3.5-point home favorite in the Week 1 NFL odds. Which side should you play in that AFC battle and which Week 1 NFL lines should you target as you build your Week 1 NFL parlay picks? Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. This is a rematch from NFL Wild Card Weekend last season and Detroit escaped that matchup with a narrow 24-23 win at home. However, the Lions have bolstered a secondary that ranked 27th against the pass by spending first and second-round picks on Terrion Arnold and Dennis Rakestraw Jr., respectively.

Meanwhile, the Rams are battling injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary, and they're coming off a season where they needed to win seven of their last eight to sneak into the playoffs. This is a team that looks like it could be in for some level of regression while the Lions look poised to contend for an NFC title once again. Those are big reasons why the model has the Lions covering the spread in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here .

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine .

What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks , and find out.