NASCAR picks: Five best bets for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway

The Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway is a crown jewel event on the NASCAR calendar. Set for Sunday on Labor Day weekend, the race brings NASCAR back to its roots. Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina, has hosted the race since 1950, making the Southern 500 one of the oldest races on the schedule.

A track truly like no other on the NASCAR circuit, Darlington Raceway is often referred to by multiple monikers. Due to the rigorous demands placed on the driver, the track is sometimes called "The Track Too Tough to Tame." Also, with Darlington's racing groove condensed, the wall is more in play than any other track. Thus, because of the amount of black scrape marks left by cars hitting the wall, Darlington has another nickname: "The Lady in Black." A vintage driver's track, where past performance is strongly correlated to future success, Darlington offers bettors a unique opportunity.

What makes this year's Southern 500 even more intriguing is that this is the final race of the 2024 NASCAR regular season. This is the last chance for drivers to make the playoffs, and any driver not currently in the postseason can make the playoffs with a win, like last week when Harrison Burton made a last-lap pass at Daytona.

As a result, teams will employ very aggressive strategies to find a win. The stakes could not be higher for the 20 teams not in the playoffs, and I expect a compelling race as well as a NASCAR betting market with pre-race value.

Denny Hamlin (-130, DraftKings) vs. William Byron

Denny Hamlin is one of the most successful drivers in the history of Darlington Raceway, winning four times in his career. In his last seven races at Darlington, he has finished in the top five four times and has led the second-most laps of any driver, behind only teammate Martin Truex Jr. Hamlin has mastered the art of driving at Darlington and has the results to show it. This season, he has already won three times and is one of the favorites for the title.

Recently, Hamlin has had an array of bad finishes mainly due to being caught up in wrecks or having mechanical issues. However, the speed is still there. He could have easily won at Indianapolis, Pocono and Richmond if not for unfortunate circumstances. Also, Hamlin recently was docked 75 regular-season points and 10 playoff points for unapproved handling of his engine post-race that was a result of a Toyota mishap.

Hamlin needs a bounce-back race, and there is no better track for him to bounce back at than Darlington.

Another reason this bet is appealing is because William Byron's stats this season appear to be inflated. In the past 10 races, he has not shown the same speed he did earlier in the year. Also, Byron has the second-best average finish at Darlington over the last seven races (trailing only Hamlin) but has led only 83 laps compared to Hamlin's 386. Hamlin has been in a faster car this year and has been faster than Byron in previous races at Darlington. Hamlin should be a larger favorite against Byron than -130.

Ross Chastain (+150, Caesars) vs. Chase Elliott

Ross Chastain is currently 18th in points, 27 points behind 16th place, which is the final spot to make the playoffs. He will likely need to win the race to make the postseason. Due to this, expect an all-in effort from Chastain this week.

Chase Elliott, on the other hand, is already locked into the playoffs and has less to gain. He has accumulated the third-most points in NASCAR this season, but that is more about his consistency than top-end speed. With a pedestrian 16.7 average finish and zero wins at Darlington, Elliott has not shown a knack for taming the difficult track.

This Caesars line should probably be closer to a pick 'em, so it is worth taking the +150 on Chastain, the driver who should be solely focused on the Southern 500.

Kyle Larson Top Chevrolet (+150, ESPN BET)

Normally in these markets, longer shots whom you think have a large range of outcomes are worth playing, with the hope they hit the higher end of their range and score big. This week, however, there are unique circumstances that give the favorite value.

First the Southern 500 is a long, grueling race, and the best usually prevail. No driver (outside of possibly Denny Hamlin) has shown more speed and better results than Kyle Larson this year. Larson is a threat at almost any style of track, and Darlington is no different. He has eight top 10 finishes in 13 races.

What makes this bet even more intriguing is that many of the other Chevrolets in this market are suspect. William Byron and Chase Elliott are the second and third favorites in this market, and, as mentioned earlier, I am cooler on their chances for success on Sunday. Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch are both threats due to their desperation to win, but neither has shown enough speed. They would have to benefit from favorable race circumstances, which is less likely during a longer race like the Southern 500.

Larson should be the class of the Chevrolets, and if he can avoid trouble he is in a great position to cash this bet at plus money.

Rick Ware Racing (-140, Caesars) vs. Kaulig Racing

With this bet, I am looking to have the best finish among drivers who race for Rick Ware Racing and Kaulig Racing. Each team has two drivers in the field. Rick Ware Racing has Justin Haley and Kaz Grala, while Kaulig Racing has Shane Van Gisbergen and Daniel Hermic.

Haley is the best driver of the group and also had the best finish by far in the last NASCAR race in Darlington. He finished ninth at Darlington in May and has two other top 10 finishes in the last five races at Darlington, including a third in 2022. This is one of Haley's best tracks on the circuit.

Grala has only raced at Darlington once (earlier this year) and finished 18th.

Meanwhile Hermic has run at Darlington four times in the Cup Series but has never finished better than 23rd. Van Gisbergen, an uber-talented road course driver, has struggled on ovals and has never raced at Darlington.

There's a decent chance that both Rick Ware Racing drivers finish ahead of both Kaulig Racing drivers, but to cash this bet only one needs to have the best finish. This market should be around -200 by certain metrics. That's some great value at Caesars.

Chris Buescher to finish in the top 10 (+100, bet365)

Chris Buescher is 500 miles away from qualifying for the NASCAR playoffs. He is currently in the final playoff spot, 21 points ahead of 17th-place Bubba Wallace. Buescher needs to avoid a driver behind him in the standings winning to qualify for the playoffs. Otherwise, a decent finish will lock Buescher into the postseason.

He will likely be more cautious in this race knowing a good result is all he needs. This is most likely to benefit Buescher when it comes to pit strategy. Having placed in the top 10 in four of his past seven races at Darlington, Buescher has proven to be a smart and talented driver at this unique track in South Carolina.

I expect Buescher to stay out of trouble, take smart risks and put together another solid finish on Sunday. There is likely a greater than 50% chance he will finish top 10, making this an advantageous spot to back Buescher at bet365 sportsbook .