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2024 Fantasy Football: Dave Richard's Career-Year Breakout list predicts success for Drake London, Zamir White
By Dave Richard,
13 hours ago
USATSI
Fantasy Football managers are on the hunt for players who will be considered breakouts, but maybe the better term is break-throughs.
A breakthrough player is someone who finally puts it all together and posts the best season of their career. A career-year.
CeeDee Lamb and Raheem Mostert are two of many examples from last year. Sure, Lamb was already a good, ascending receiver, but he turned in a 135-1,749-12 campaign, enough to be the best in PPR for Fantasy and easily the best year of his career. Mostert, who notched his first 1,000-yard season at age 31, led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns. He had 14 regular-season rushing touchdowns in his career before then!
So when you read through my picks for breakout players, know that I'm looking for guys who I think will have career-best campaigns. Everything is set up for them to come through, they just need to do it with help from their teammates. As far as drafting them, I am cool getting them at or ahead of their current average draft position (ADP).
Last point: Don't expect surprises. If you want sleepers, I've got you covered. This list is reserved more for players you already know, just with loftier expectations than ever.
Players are listed in order by their CBS Sports PPR ADP as of August 28.
Stat to know: Of the 168 targets Wilson saw from everyone but Aaron Rodgers last year, 38 (roughly 22.6%) were deemed uncatchable. That's high, but not totally out of hand. It should shrivel with Rodgers playing. Also, of the 35 wideouts with at least 100 targets last year, Wilson was 23rd in average depth of target (ADOT) with 10.16, a by-product of catching passes from inferior quarterbacks.
What to expect: Wilson has all the makings of an elite NFL receiver who has already garnered huge target volume -- 8.6 per game as a rookie, 9.9 last year. Marrying him with a really accurate veteran quarterback, even an old one, should accelerate his efficiency and pop his touchdown production (he's scored seven times through two seasons). First-hand reports from camp say Rodgers looks like his old self and Wilson is easily his best receiver, even if they've bickered on the sideline. A lack of a true No. 2 receiver only strengthens the opportunities Wilson should have.
CBS ADP: 16.9 I'd take him: as soon as 10th overall in PPR and 15th in non-PPR
Stat to know: Pacheco had 15-plus touches in 15 games (including the postseason) and notched at least 15 PPR points in 10 of them.
What to expect: Because the Chiefs ' offseason moves were focused on adding speed to the receiving corps, Pacheco stands to benefit greatly as the lead rusher. Opposing safeties won't crowd the line of scrimmage and thus create some advantages for the Chiefs in the run game. Kansas City's only moves to add depth to its run game is sign Samaje Perine after he was cut by the Broncos and add undrafted rookie Carson Steele , who is admittedly a fun player to watch but not yet ready to take Pacheco off the field in important moments. Perine is a third-down back at this stage of his career, and probably one who will lose out on shorter-distance third-downs to Pacheco as well as in the red zone. Count on a spike in efficiency to help Pacheco flirt with career-highs in rushing and total touchdowns.
CBS ADP: 21 I'd take him: as soon as 17th overall in any format
Stat to know: From Week 12 through the end of the regular season, Olave averaged 15.2 PPR points per game despite a dip in targets (7.2 per game, down from 9.4 in his first 10 games) and ADOT (12.2, down from 13.8). The significance? This will sound kinda funny but it's true: these were games without Michael Thomas , which meant Olave had to operate as the Saints ' No. 1 receiver and not as solely a deep threat.
What to expect: New Orleans got a much-needed change at playcaller in Klint Kubiak. His experience in both Minnesota and San Francisco, not to mention his experience growing up with a famous football coach as his pops, could help unlock Olave into a much more dangerous wideout. There is no doubt that Olave will be the top target-getter for the Saints unless he misses playing time, and his efficiency should be much improved.
CBS ADP: 32.9 I'd take him: as soon as 23rd overall in PPR and 25th in non-PPR
Stat to know: London has averaged 6.9 targets per game in each of his first two seasons, seeing at least seven targets in 20 of 33 career games. Over the past four seasons, any wide receiver seeing at least seven targets from Kirk Cousins has notched 15 or more PPR points 71% of the time, an outrageous rate. Also, through two seasons London has had an uncatchable target rate of 22.5%. Cousins over his past four seasons has had an off-target rate of 8.2% with no single season worse than 8.7%.
What to expect: We've only seen London catch from Marcus Mariota , Desmond Ridder , and Taylor Heinicke . Cousins is a step up in class, and at least one wide receiver has averaged at least 7.2 targets per game from Cousins in five of his past six seasons. London is easily the top wide receiver and the most attractive target in Atlanta, so a steady dose of volume that could be anywhere from 7 to 8.5 per game makes him a big-time candidate for a career year. That wouldn't take that much -- a 75-950-5 stat line would do the trick, but the hope is he works his way much higher.
CBS ADP: 33.8 I'd take him: as soon as 22nd overall in PPR and 27th in non-PPR
Stat to know: In 10 games with at least 15 touches last season, Walker averaged 16 PPR points and scored eight times. That sounds pretty good but it was actually a little uneven -- he hit at least 17.9 in five of them and 13.9 or worse in the other five. His numbers were similar in 2022, which does make him a little boom-or-busty.
What to expect: A dedicated role. New playcaller Ryan Grubb has become fond of Walker and even called him a "three-tool guy," suggesting he can be useful on any play as a runner (duh), receiver (ooh), and pass blocker. That's wonderful since it seems apparent that Walker will be asked to run more routes and run outside of the tackles more than he used to. Backup Zach Charbonnet has missed parts of training camp and wasn't making inroads on Walker's workload anyway. This seems like a perfect trajectory for Walker to have a monster season.
CBS ADP: 37.9 I'd take him: as soon as 27th overall in PPR and 23rd overall in non-PPR
Stat to know: In the Raiders ' last four games of 2023, White hit per-game averages of 23.3 touches, 4.7 yards per rush, and 15.2 PPR points per game. The Raiders went 3-1 with a pair of blowout wins. Since then the team moved on from veteran Josh Jacobs and added only Alexander Mattison and seventh-round pick Dylan Laube to its running back room. It suggests the coaches are cool with White as the lead back.
What to expect: Coach Antonio Pierce basically spelled out that White will be the Raiders' main rusher this season, an obvious point after the bully back looked the part in the Raiders' first preseason game . He might never be a passing-downs option for the Raiders -- all of the 11 third-down snaps he played in those final four games were either third and short or QB kneel-downs. But it's unlikely Mattison or anyone else currently on the Las Vegas roster significantly displaces White. As long as he stays in that role, he has the makings of a weekly Fantasy starter. Problem is, guys with very small sample sizes from the year prior don't always work out the year after, so there is some risk.
CBS ADP: 52.1 I'd take him: around 50th overall in all formats
Stat to know: Stefon Diggs saw at least 150 targets in each of his past four seasons with the Bills including 160 targets in 2023. Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets in 16 games last season. Without a clear replacement for Diggs in the Bills lineup, it's easy to buy into Kincaid getting good target volume.
What to expect: Kincaid is a size/speed matchup option for the Bills, one of a few unique-bodied pass-catchers they have on the roster. He averaged 5.7 targets per game under Joe Brady's playcalling in 2023, though that includes a couple of games where he saw a boost in work with Dawson Knox sidelined. Now it's assumed Kincaid will be in an every-down role, so Knox's presence shouldn't hurt his opportunities. The training camp reports have been glowing for him, though they've also been pretty good for rookie Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir , so it could be tight between the three of them each week. But the target threshold we look for with tight ends is lower than it is for receivers anyway, and the fact he's in the conversation is very good.
CBS ADP: 58.7 I'd take him: before 55th overall and before 60th overall in non-PPR
Stat to know: Richardson completed 59.5% of his throws over four games, an ugly number but still better than any completion rate he had in college. And on throws of 10 or fewer Air Yards, Richardson completed 69.1%, which again is poor by comparison to the rest of the league but a step in the right direction for him. Speaking of steps in the right direction, Richardson played a little more than 10 quarters of pro ball last season and had 25 rushes, 136 yards, and four touchdowns. Just for fun, if you were to extrapolate that out over a full 68-quarter season, which would put him on-pace for 154 carries, 840 yards, and, uh, 24 rushing touchdowns. The touchdown number is ludicrous but the others? Kind of expected!
What to expect: The Colts might try to rein in Richardson a little bit so that he doesn't hurt himself again. And his passing this preseason didn't seem improved, though his progressions did. The Colts also added Adonai Mitchell to their receiving corps, giving them another option for Richardson to create YAC with. I would expect things to stay as they were last season, which kicks down the door for Richardson to have some mild-to-monster Fantasy weeks like he had in Week 1 (22.9) and 4 (33.6).
CBS ADP: 65.9 I'd take him: around 60th overall as QB7 and QB5 if TDs count for four points
Stat to know: Of the 252 targets McLaurin saw in 2022 and 2023, 52 of them (20.6%) were deemed uncatchable, a number that's low by comparison to many of his peers but still not great. New Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels had a 10.1% off-target rate in 2023 and 11.6% in 2022. Not only should McLaurin see cleaner throws, but he should continue to keep up the seven-plus target per game pace he's enjoyed each of the past four years.
What to expect: It'll be tough to rein in a thrower as good as Daniels, altering what might have been the initial plans for Washington. McLaurin looked good in a joint practice I saw and has a similar profile to some of the receivers who have flourished with Daniels during the QB's college days. Plus Daniels' ability to throw on the run will buy McLaurin some extra targets on off-schedule plays. And because his career highs aren't too steep (87 catches, 1,191 yards, seven scores), there's a chance of a small career-year breakout in McLaurin's sixth season.
CBS ADP: 75.4 I'd take him: before 65th overall in all formats
Stat to know: Assuming the Jason Witten/Dalton Schultz role in Dallas last year, Ferguson led all tight ends in red-zone targets with 23 and was second in end-zone targets with nine. He also had nine games with at least seven targets and averaged 12.6 PPR points in them. He also had two more games with six targets and he averaged 10.1 PPR points in those.
What to expect: More of the same -- emphasis on more. Dallas' run game is among the most suspect in the league and its defense probably won't be as dominant as it was last year. Both open the door for the Cowboys to keep throwing and while CeeDee Lamb will suck up lots of targets, Ferguson should be next in line. That clearly goes double for the red zone. This is the tight end I gravitate toward when I whiff on the first four or five tight ends in my drafts.
CBS ADP: 86.7 I'd take him: before 90th overall in all formats
Stat to know: As a rookie, Watson averaged a touchdown every 5.9 catches. Last year, he averaged a touchdown every 5.6 catches. Know how? Because he was tied for ninth among receivers last year with 14 end-zone targets, an impressive number when you realize he played in just nine games.
What to expect: As long as Watson stays healthy ... wait, you stopped reading. Is it because I brought up his health? OK fine, that's obviously an issue, but the Packers have addressed that by having Watson see a specialist and the results have been good -- he's rarely missed a practice. In fact, he did a backflip on the 15th day of training camp, then he scored on Jaire Alexander on a ridiculous in-cut in one-on-one drills . Watson should play a lot as long as his body lets him, and the numbers should fall into place. Furthermore, his ADP is insanely low, making him a brilliant low-risk, high-reward pick.
CBS ADP: 93.3 I'd take him: around 70th overall in all formats
Stat to know: In nine games with nine or more touches as a rookie, Spears averaged 10.5 PPR points per game with five targets per game. Any increase in work this year will send his average to at least a low-end RB2 value. In a different offensive system, while splitting with Derrick Henry , Spears played just five fewer snaps than Henry and dominated passing-down situations while averaging 4.5 yards per rush behind a bad O-line.
What to expect: Spears is expected to split touches with Tony Pollard , potentially on a drive-by-drive basis, or maybe on a carry-by-carry basis like we saw in their first preseason game. The new Titans offense should be pass-friendlier than any iteration of their offense over the past five years. That might sound bad to a physical rusher with stone hands but not to a juke master with great hands like Spears. The O-line already looks much better than it did last season, and any back with good zone-scheme traits (like Spears) should benefit. Spears could see close to 13 touches per game with upside for more at the first sign of Pollard struggling.
CBS ADP: 103.1 I'd take him: around 90th overall in all formats
Stat to know: Once Shakir became a regular part of the Bills offense in Week 8, he averaged 10.1 PPR points per game on a mere four targets per game. But as the season wound down and the playoffs kicked into high gear, Shakir averaged 13.7 PPR points per game on 5.5 targets per game in his final four. Mind you he was sharing the field with Stefon Diggs then.
What to expect: The theory is that his target share will continue increasing now that Diggs is gone. He's the only wide receiver on the Bills roster who has ever caught a regular-season pass from Josh Allen , who said he had "so much faith in" Shakir in a recent interview. Shakir should be close to an every-down receiver for the Bills, primarily handling the slot. That's been a good spot for receivers playing with Josh Allen as he's regularly been top-10 in the league in targets to his receivers lined up in that space. Shakir is a slam-dunk to post a stat line better than the meager 39-611-2 he had in 2023, but he just might peak in 2024 given that the Bills will continue adding talent to that position in the years ahead.
CBS ADP: 125.4 I'd take him: around 90th overall in all formats
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