USC vs. LSU prediction, odds, spread, start time: 2024 college football picks, Week 1 bets by advanced model

Twenty-one years after they split a national championship, LSU and USC will finally meet on the field on Sunday evening. In 2003, LSU won the BCS Championship but USC topped the AP Poll, leading to the last split national championship in college football. The programs haven't met since then, and this will be just the third all-time matchup between two of the biggest brands in college football. They split the prior two, with the last being an LSU victory in 1984.

Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Tigers are favored by 4.5 points in the latest USC vs. LSU odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 64.5. Before making any LSU vs. USC picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model .

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on USC Trojans vs. LSU Tigers and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks . Here are the college football odds and betting lines for LSU vs. USC:

• USC vs. LSU spread: LSU -4.5
• USC vs. LSU over/under: 64.5 points
• USC vs. LSU money line: LSU -186, USC +155
• USC: The Trojans are 2-8 against the spread over their last 10 games
• LSU: The Over went 12-1 for the Tigers last season, with the best Over percentage (92.3%) in FBS
• USC vs. LSU picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why LSU can cover

While LSU has the No. 9 incoming class, perhaps the biggest addition for the Tigers comes from their coaching staff. Blake Baker has been hired as the new defensive coordinator after serving in the same role at Missouri for two years. Baker took a unit that ranked 113th in scoring defense the year before he got there and improved it to 56th in 2022. Mizzou then made another leap last year, ranking 26th in scoring defense. He's tasked with making similarly substantial improvements for LSU, and he has the benefit of having one of the best players in the nation to assist.

Linebacker Harold Perkins Jr . has wrecked offensive backfields for two years. In 2022, he led all Power Five freshmen in both sacks (7.5) and tackles for loss (13). Then last year, and facing constant double teams, Perkins again had 13 tackles for loss, including at least one in 10 straight games. With an inexperienced quarterback and an offensive line that lost three starters on the other side, Perkins should pose problems for USC both in the run and the pass games. See which team to pick here .

Why USC can cover

Moss has the nearly impossible task of replacing Williams, but if his first start is any indication of what Trojan fans can expect, then there may be no drop-off whatsoever. In a bowl game versus Louisville last year, Moss threw a Holiday Bowl-record six TD passes as part of a 372-yard day in leading an unranked USC to an upset of the No. 15 Cardinals. Offensive production from the QB position is almost a given for a Lincoln Riley-led team as he previously coached and molded the likes of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts, in addition to Williams.

Moss will have backfield help in the name of RB Woody Marks, a transfer from Mississippi State . Despite his position, Marks ranks eighth all-time in receptions in the SEC and would have likely broken the conference's receptions record had he stuck around. Marks is the ideal safety valve for an inexperienced QB, and Moss also has 6-foot-6 Duce Robinson to throw to. He is USC's top returning receiver and has the ability to stretch the field after averaging 21.9 yards per reception across his 16 catches in 2023. See which team to pick here .

How to make LSU vs. USC picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 69 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine .

So who wins USC vs. LSU, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer simulation model that's up well over $2,000 on its college football picks since inception , and find out.