Eagles vs. Packers prediction, odds, time, line, spread: 2024 NFL in Brazil picks by model on 181-129 run
By CBS Sports Staff,
2024-09-06
The 2024 NFL season began on Thursday, but NFL schedule-makers are throwing fans for a loop on Friday, with the first ever NFL Brazil game being held in Sao Paulo between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. Both teams made the postseason a year ago and figure to contend for divisional championships in 2024. Plus, there will be nearly 50,000 fans on hand to witness history. This will be the fourth meeting between these two franchises in the last five years and Philadelphia has a 2-1 edge both straight-up and against the spread in the previous three matchups.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Following a Super Bowl appearance in the 2022-23 season, the Eagles jumped out to a10-1 start last season and looked like the clear frontrunners once again in the NFC. However, the wheels fell off down the stretch, with Philadelphia losing five of six to close out the regular season and then getting obliterated 32-9 against the Buccaneers during NFL Wild Card Weekend. Now the Eagles are welcoming in two new coordinators with designs on righting the ship.
Vic Fangio will take over defensively and he should have an improved secondary with Darius Slay back from injury, C.J. Gardner-Johnson signing in free agency and the Eagles spending their first two picks on cornerbacks (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean). Meanwhile, Kellen Moore was also given a revamped personnel group, with Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson joining a skill group that already includes Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Even with the loss of Jason Kelce, this looks like an improved roster overall and the Eagles should be back near the top of the NFC again in 2024. See who to back at SportsLine .
Why the Packers can cover
Green Bay started rolling offensively at the end of last season, ranking third in success rate from Weeks 10 to 18. Quarterback Jordan Love threw for at least 215 yards in 12 consecutive games prior to a narrow loss to San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Round. The Packers went 8-4 against the spread as underdogs last season, and Love will face an inexperienced Philadelphia secondary.
The Packers also have a new workhorse running back in Josh Jacobs, who has proven himself as one of the best backs in the league in recent seasons. Philadelphia lost five of its final six games last season, getting blown out by Tampa Bay in the playoffs. The Eagles had a losing record against the spread (7-9-2) and were just 6-7-2 as favorites, while Green Bay covered in four of its final five games and is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games against NFC opponents. See who to back at SportsLine .
How to make Eagles vs. Packers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks .
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