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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyeing Ravens, Buccaneers in Week 2, 2024
By CBS Sports Staff,
1 days ago
USATSI
Dating back to last year, the Browns have lost three straight games, and their struggles with turnovers extends even longer. In fact, the Browns have turned the ball over multiple times in seven straight contests, a stat to know when making Week 2 NFL picks. No statistic correlates more so than winning or losing than turnover differential. Cleveland will visit the Jaguars on Sunday, with the Jags listed as 3.5-point favorites according to the latest Week 2 NFL odds.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 184-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 2 NFL picks is that the Ravens (-9.5, 41.5) cover at home versus the Raiders. Baltimore was literally an inch or two, courtesy of Isaiah Likely's shoes being out of bounds, away from potentially knocking off the defending champion Chiefs in their own building on Super Bowl banner night. Even with back to back losses -- and consecutive ATS defeats -- to the Chiefs dating back to last year's playoffs, the Ravens are 11-7 ATS in regular-season games since the start of 2023, which is the third-best mark in the league.
As for the Raiders, the two biggest questions surrounding them entering the season were the two biggest reasons they lost to the Chargers in Week 1, and that's their QB and running game. Gardner Minshew had two turnovers and was sacked four times, while starting RB Zamir White averaged just 3.4 yards per carry and lost a fumble. After the Ravens held Mahomes to as many interceptions as touchdowns and limited the Chiefs' running game to just 3.6 ypc, they should have no problems in containing Vegas' offense. SportsLine's model has Baltimore (-9.5) covering almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here .
Another one of its Week 2 NFL predictions: the Buccaneers (+7, 51.5) cover on the road versus the Lions . As a franchise, the Buccaneers have been able to deal with the raucous environment that Lions' home games bring as Tampa has had resounding recent success in the Motor City. In the regular season, the Bucs are 4-1 over their last five visits to Detroit, and 7-2 over their last nine trips. The Buccaneers have won three straight regular-season road games overall, despite being underdogs in two of those.
Baker Mayfield is coming off a four-touchdown game with 80% completion percentage and no turnovers. He now gets to face a Lions defense that gave up 317 passing yards to Matthew Stafford in Week 1 and allowed the sixth-most passing yards in 2023. The model projects Mayfield to have more touchdown passes than Jared Goff, and that would allow the Bucs to stay in this one. The model has this game being decided by less than a field goal, as Tampa Bay (+6.5) covers almost 60% of the time. The Under (48.5) is also forecasted to hit in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .
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