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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model high on Ravens, Buccaneers in Week 2, 2024
By CBS Sports Staff,
8 hours ago
USATSI
The only two franchises to be AFC champions over the last five years will clash on Sunday in the highlight of the Week 2 NFL schedule. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City will host Joe Burrow and Cincinnati in a matchup that has taken place twice over the last three AFC Championship Games. Over the last eight matchups between these franchises, the team that has won the game has also covered. If you think that trend will continue, then whomever you take with your NFL bets on the money line should also be your choice for Week 2 NFL picks against the spread.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 184-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 2 NFL picks is that the Ravens (-9.5, 41.5) cover at home versus the Raiders. Baltimore was literally an inch or two, courtesy of Isaiah Likely's shoes being out of bounds, away from potentially knocking off the defending champion Chiefs in their own building on Super Bowl banner night. Even with back to back losses -- and consecutive ATS defeats -- to the Chiefs dating back to last year's playoffs, the Ravens are 11-7 ATS in regular-season games since the start of 2023, which is the third-best mark in the league.
As for the Raiders, the two biggest questions surrounding them entering the season were the two biggest reasons they lost to the Chargers in Week 1, and that's their QB and running game. Gardner Minshew had two turnovers and was sacked four times, while starting RB Zamir White averaged just 3.4 yards per carry and lost a fumble. After the Ravens held Mahomes to as many interceptions as touchdowns and limited the Chiefs' running game to just 3.6 ypc, they should have no problems in containing Vegas' offense. SportsLine's model has Baltimore (-9.5) covering almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here .
Another one of its Week 2 NFL predictions: the Buccaneers (+7, 51) cover on the road versus the Lions . Detroit needed overtime in Week 1 to defeat an utterly depleted Rams team that lost Puka Nacua in the first half and lost three starting offensive linemen throughout the game. Even with a diminished offense, the Rams moved the ball at will as Matthew Stafford's 317 passing yards were the second-most by any player in Week 1. Passing defense was an issue for Detroit a year ago as it ranked 27th in that regard, and that deficiency remains.
Meanwhile, the Bucs are coming off their second-largest Week 1 win in franchise history, defeating Washington by 17 points. Tampa also enters this Week 2 game with impressive spread runs dating back to last season. It has covered in six of its last seven regular-season games, and the Bucs have also covered in eight of nine away games in the regular season since the start of 2023. The Bucs have outright won three straight road games, covering in each of those as well. Tampa is projected to cover nearly 60% of the time, and the model also says the Under hits in almost 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .
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