SEC college football picks, odds in Week 3: Conference action heating up means more upsets possible

The SEC made history again this week as the first conference ever to have six teams ranked in the top seven spots of the AP Top 25. Similar records will be broken in this new era of college football , where the SEC and Big Ten's 34 teams rule the sport.

That also means big teams could fall more often, particularly in conference action. The docket this week is light on potential upsets in the SEC, though there's always a Northern Illinois lurking around ready to shock the world. Several teams face their toughest tests yet, including No. 5 Ole Miss and No. 6 Missouri , in Week 3.

Most interesting SEC games

ESPN's GameDay will be in Columbia, South Carolina, for Saturday's No. 16 LSU vs. South Carolina game, but that's not my game of the week in the SEC. Texas A&M at Florida is intriguing for reasons not entirely important to the national conversation, but because it's darn near sink-or-swim for the Gators.

Billy Napier is already on the hottest seat in the country, but he was provided a ray of hope last week when freshman quarterback DJ Lagway sizzled in The Swamp for his debut as a starter. However, Napier said he may side with senior Graham Mertz if he's cleared from concussion protocol. Playing both quarterbacks vs. the Aggies seems like a good way to mess up a good thing. Why complicate matters? Nothing comes easy for the Gator faithful, it seems.

Here are the rankings for this week's SEC games:

1. Texas A&M at Florida
2. No. 16 LSU at South Carolina
3. No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri
4. No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin
5. No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky
6. Tulane at No. 15 Oklahoma
7. No. 5 Ole Miss at Wake Forest
8. Vanderbilt at Georgia State
9. Toledo at Mississippi State
10. UAB at Arkansas
11. New Mexico at Auburn
12. UTSA at No. 2 Texas
13. Kent State at No. 7 Tennessee

Just a SECond

Before we move on to this week's SEC picks, here are a few interesting notes to get you ready for Saturday:

• Tennessee is a 47.5-point favorite against Kent State, the program's largest point spread against an FBS team since 1996, when Peyton Manning was the quarterback against UNLV .
• Missouri is favored this week by 15-plus points against a ranked team for the first time in 30 years.
• Alabama's winning streak of 53 games against unranked nonconference teams is the longest since Miami won 62 straight from 1985-1996.
• Texas A&M enters Saturday's trip to Florida on a 10-game road losing streak, the longest in program history.

Picks

Straight up : 22-3 | Against the spread : 12-8

*Picks use opening SportsLine consensus odds

No. 16 LSU at South Carolina

Can South Carolina pressure LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier ? LSU has not allowed a sack this season but the Gamecocks are second in the nation with 10 sacks. Kyle Kennard is already up to 3.5 sacks this season. Nussmeier has been stellar, picking up where Jayden Daniels left off with a Heisman run last season and has thrown for 300-plus yards in three career starts. We do have questions about the offense's consistency. The Tigers trailed Nicholls State in the second quarter last week and seemed bent toward the passing game. LSU ranks 116th in rushing (88.5 yards per game). South Carolina needs turnovers and LaNorris Sellers to pick up the production through the air (136.5 yards per game) to pull off the program's first win since 1994 against the Bayou Bengals. Pick: LSU -6.5

No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky

Kentucky imploded last week, managing just 183 yards while allowing five sacks and 11 tackles for loss in a 31-6 home loss to South Carolina. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff was obviously frustrated by the pressure, completing only 3 of 10 passes for 30 yards and an interception before backup Gavin Wimsatt replaced him in the game. Vandagriff, a transfer from Georgia, faces his former team this week. He will likely have nightmares standing in the pocket as the Bulldogs' defensive front closes around him. Georgia's longest winning streak vs. an SEC team is against Kentucky, which has lost 14 straight games to the Bulldogs with an average margin of victory of 19 points. Pick: Georgia -18

Texas A&M at Florida

Florida's offense got a much-needed spark in Lagway's debut last week, but if Graham Mertz returns from concussion protocol, Napier seems intent on starting the senior over the freshman. Might that be a mistake? Lagway set a school record for a true freshman with 456 passing yards in the 45-7 win against FCS Samford . Napier said he will use both quarterbacks if Mertz is available. Texas A&M got its running backs going last week, rushing for 333 yards, the most for the Aggies since 2018, but the rushing defense has been subpar (189 yards per game). Can Conner Weigman outduel Florida's quarterbacks? Not if Lagway plays most of the snaps. Pick: Florida +4

No. 24 Boston College at No. 6 Missouri

Boston College can make history on Saturday. An upset at Missouri would make the Eagles only the third team in the last 30 years to beat two top 10 teams in the first three weeks of the season. Mizzou figures to be much more challenging than Florida State , however. The Tigers' defense has yet to allow a point this season, the first FBS team to do so in the first two weeks of the season since 2019. The key for BC is to slow the tempo and effectively use quarterback Thomas Castellanos on designed runs, just as it did in the win vs. FSU. Boston College's defense has been solid, limiting teams to an incredible 14.8% conversion rate on third downs. Mizzou is more explosive and has the better defense, but this will be the Tigers' first challenge after blowing out Buffalo and FCS Murray State . The Tigers win their 19th straight nonconference game at home, a program record. Pick: Boston College +17.5

No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin

Wisconsin appears to still be suffering from a long string of hiccups at quarterback in the Luke Fickell era. Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke hasn't quite been the spark many expected; he didn't throw a touchdown until Week 2. Alabama needed a 28-point outburst in the fourth quarter after struggling to eclipse 3.5 yards per play through three quarters to pull away from USF last week. Jalen Milroe is much more dynamic at quarterback, and the Tide have many more receivers, including freshman phenom Ryan Williams , for the Badgers to adequately challenge for a win inside Camp Randall Stadium, where they're 51-2 in their last 53 nonconference home games. If Wisconsin pulls the upset, it does so with turnovers and a passing offense that attacks the Tide's early-season inconsistencies in the defensive backfield. Pick: Alabama -7

Tulane at No. 15 Oklahoma

Oklahoma struggled to put away Houston last week in an offensive slog, recording only 249 yards in a 16-12 win. The key against Tulane is getting into the red zone, where Jackson Arnold ranks third in the country in passing touchdowns with six. Tulane has been a menace to Big 12 teams in recent years, pushing Kansas State to the limit last week and upsetting the Wildcats in 2022. The Green Wave nearly upset the Sooners in a 40-35 loss in 2021. Tulane is 10-2 against the spread in its last 12 road games and 10-0 straight-up since 2002. This team is different, but the DNA in the program remains under first-year coach Jon Sumrall. The Sooners win, but not by two touchdowns.. Pick: Tulane -14

UAB at Arkansas

Surprise, surprise: Arkansas' offense is light-years better than it was a year ago. Bobby Petrino is a magician when he's allowed to work alone with an offense, but can the Hogs cut down on the mistakes that cost them in a double-overtime loss last week at nationally-ranked Oklahoma State ? Arkansas committed three turnovers, including a pick six, and lost despite outgaining the Cowboys by nearly 300 yards and rushing for 232 yards. UAB has been a disaster under Trent Dilfer. The Blazers lost to former UAB interim coach Bryant Vincent last week in a 32-6 blowout at ULM. Pick: Arkansas -22

No. 5 Ole Miss at Wake Forest

The Rebels are an offensive juggernaut, leading the FBS in point differential (+125), the best start by any team since 2015 (also Ole Miss). The Rebels will score plenty of points to win Saturday in their first road game, but history shows Lane Kiffin's team usually underperforms away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Rebels averaged 44.1 points at home and only 24.5 away from home last season.. Pick: Wake Forest +22.5

UTSA at No. 2 Texas

This could get ugly quickly. Texas is rolling and UTSA is not what it was a year or two ago, when it was the class of Conference USA. The Roadrunners suffered their largest loss in five years last week in a 49-10 demolition at Texas State . This a perfect pad-your-stats and rest-in-the-second-half game for Quinn Ewers , who is coming off the first back-to-back, three-touchdown performance of his career. The Longhorns' defense is allowing only 6.0 points per game, the lowest total since 1982. Pick: Texas -29.5

Vanderbilt at Georgia State

Diego Pavia doesn't need to throw the ball to effectively move Vanderbilt's offense, but it would be nice to see him get into a rhythm with 15 or more attempts against Georgia State, which proved to be tough against Georgia Tech in Week 1. Georgia State's Freddie Brock is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Pick: Vanderbilt -7.5

New Mexico at Auburn

Auburn had one of the more disappointing performances in the SEC last week in its 21-14 home loss to Cal. Payton Thorne threw four interceptions and the offensive line struggled to keep a clean pocket. The Tigers will pounce on an outmatched Lobos team. Pick: New Mexico +28

Toledo at Mississippi State

Mississippi State's defensive line was pushed around last week in its 30-23 loss at Arizona State . Toledo can score in bunches, averaging 46 points per game, but the rushing offense isn't necessarily stellar (125 yards per game). The Bulldogs bounce back at home. Pick: Mississippi State -8

Kent State at No. 7 Tennessee

We discovered last week Tennessee can blow out opponents even when Nico Iamaleava isn't at his best. The quarterback threw two interceptions and the Vols still cruised to a 51-10 win against NC State , the program's largest win against a ranked team since 1990. As it did two weeks ago, Tennessee will do its damage in the first half and call off the dogs at halftime. Pick: Kent State +47.5