Five most intriguing MLB player options: Predicting if Cody Bellinger, Gerrit Cole, more will hit free agency

The 2024 MLB regular season is not yet over, but already offseason business is underway. A week ago, the Giants signed third baseman Matt Chapman to a six-year, $151 million contract extension that will keep him in San Francisco through the 2030 season. That's one less thing (one less big thing) the Giants will have to worry about this winter.

"This offseason was a little strange with the free-agent market, but I was willing to bet on myself," Chapman said during a press conference after signing his extension . "I believed in myself. I believed that the Giants would see my value as the season went on and what I bring every single day."

Chapman was, of course, one of the "Boras Four," a big-name Scott Boras client who had to settle for a one-year contract with a series of player options rather than a long-term deal. Given his strong play this season, Chapman was likely to decline his $17 million player option for 2025, and re-enter free agency. Neither him nor the Giants have to worry about that now.

More than a few others have option decisions coming after the season, be it a player option or an opt out, which are functionally the same thing. In both cases, the terms (dollars and years) have already been negotiated, and the decision whether to collect on those terms lies with the player. Player options/opt outs have become increasingly popular in recent years.

Here are the five most interesting player option/opt out decisions remaining now that Chapman has hitched his wagon to the Giants for another six years.

Cody Bellinger , Chicago Cubs

Cody Bellinger CHC • CF • #24 BA 0.266 R 64 HR 17 RBI 66 SB 9 View Profile

Contract situation: $27.5 million player option for 2025 ($2.5 million buyout), then a $25 million player option for 2026 ($5 million buyout)

These players are listed alphabetically but it's fitting we're starting with Bellinger, because his decision is the most fascinating and perhaps the most unpredictable, at least among big-name players. A year ago, he received MVP votes and went into free agency at age 28. It was the kind of season that should -- should -- have landed Bellinger a large contract.

Instead, Bellinger had to take a one-year contract with two player options. He was the first of the "Boras Four" to sign and that didn't happen until Feb. 27. Bellinger has been unable to repeat last year's success, not that he's been bad . His performance is south of last season's though. Here are the numbers:

	2023	2024
AVG/OBP/SLG	.307/.356/.525	.266/.330/.431
OPS+	138	111
HR	26	17
SB-CS	20-6	9-2
K%	15.7%	15.3%
BB%	7.2%	8.4%
WAR	4.4	1.8

Bellinger is still making a ton of contact, so that's good, though the contact he's making is not particularly loud. The one red flag in his game last year was his exit velocity and hard-hit ability, or lack thereof. The under-the-hood indicators suggested Bellinger was performing over his head, and that his overall season numbers should have looked, well, like they do this year.

The emergence of Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field has pushed Bellinger to right field, where he's played good but not great defense. A year ago Bellinger had big numbers at the plate with a strong glove in center. Now he's a year older (but still on the right side of 30) with worse numbers and less defense at a less valuable position. Hmmm.

Prediction: I have very little confidence in this but I'm going to say Bellinger picks up his player option, which guarantees him at least $32.5 million between his 2025 salary and the buyout of his 2026 option. Bellinger turned only 29 in July. Pick up the option and have a strong 2025, and he'll be able to test free agency again next winter at age 30, which is still young enough to get paid well. This is a tough one though.

Gerrit Cole , New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole NYY • SP • #45 ERA 3.36 WHIP 1.24 IP 75 BB 24 K 85 View Profile

Contract situation: Can opt out of final four years and $144 million ($36 million per season)

A year ago, Cole won the Cy Young award unanimously. Things have not come as easily this season. Nerve inflammation in his elbow delayed Cole's season debut until June 19, and his performance has been up and down. Cole is now beginning to lock it in though. He has a 1.58 ERA in his last eight starts and has struck out 29.2% of the batters he's faced. That's Cy Cole.

Cole's opt-out situation is unique because the Yankees have a say in the matter. His contract allows the Yankees to void the opt out by adding an additional year at $36 million. Cole's contract is nine years at $36 million annually, which was the largest pitching contract in history when it was signed. If he uses the opt out, the Yankees can void by adding a tenth year to the contract.

Cole turned 34 this past weekend and you can see the cracks beginning to form in the foundation. He had the elbow issue at the start of the season, he had a start pushed back because of fatigue in July , and he hasn't been quite as dominant on the mound. On one hand, it's Gerrit Cole! How do the Yankees let him go? On the other hand, decline years are ahead.

There's also Juan Soto to consider. The Yankees badly want to re-sign Soto even though chairman Hal Steinbrenner is bellyaching about the team's payroll being " simply not sustainable ." Objectively, you let the 34-year-old ace pitcher with a ton of innings on his arm leave so you can sign the soon-to-be 26-year-old superstar hitter. Will the Yankees see it this way in November?

Prediction: Barring major injury between now and the end of the season, Cole will use his opt out and the Yankees will void it by picking up the option. The Yankees traded for Soto with the intention of re-signing him, and pairing him with Cole (and Aaron Judge ) moving forward.

Nathan Eovaldi , Texas Rangers

Nathan Eovaldi TEX • SP • #17 ERA 3.67 WHIP 1.08 IP 152 BB 36 K 150 View Profile

Contract situation: $20 million player option for 2025

Technically, Eovaldi does not have this player option yet. He'll gain access to the player option when one of three conditions are met. Those conditions:

• 300 innings from 2023-24
• Top-five finish in the 2024 Cy Young voting
• Top-seven finish in the 2024 Cy Young voting and a 2024 All-Star Game selection

Eovaldi did not make the All-Star team this year, so cross out the third item there. He's also unlikely to finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting. He's been very good this season, but not top five in the Cy Young voting good. We can rule out that the second item too. So, to gain access to the option, Eovaldi needs 300 innings from 2023-24. He's at 296. Convenient, that.

Assuming Eovaldi throws those final four innings he needs to get the player option, he'll then have to decide whether to take the $20 million and remain with the Rangers next year, or give free agency another try with his 35th birthday coming up in February. He is a beloved teammate and a clutch performer, but he turns 35 soon and he has a long injury history. There's risk.

The Rangers are among the teams caught up in the Diamond Sports Group (i.e. Bally Sports) bankruptcy, and they cut back on their spending last offseason as a result. There is still quite of bit of uncertainty about their local television revenue moving forward. How that will affect their offseason, we do not know. What we do know is Eovaldi controls his future, not the Rangers.

Prediction: Eovaldi throws the four he needs to get the player option, then declines it, tests the free-agent waters, and ultimately returns to the Rangers on a new contract. Perhaps something like two years and $40 million with an option for a third year.

Clayton Kershaw , Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw LAD • SP • #22 ERA 4.500 WHIP 1.5 IP 30 BB 9 K 24 View Profile

Contract situation: $10 million player option for 2025

Now 36, Kershaw has been going year to year for several years now. He signed his current contract, which guaranteed him only $5 million, following major shoulder surgery last offseason. Kershaw signed, completed his rehab, returned on July 25, make seven so-so starts, then went back to the injured list with a bone spur in his toe on Aug. 31. His status for the rest of the season is unknown.

"I think I'll be able to," Kershaw said earlier this week when asked whether he'll pitch again this season ( via the Los Angeles Times ). "I don't want to put a percentage on it, but I do feel like -- I mean, it's been (13 days), there's been a lot of progress in the last (13 days) -- so I feel like I've got a finite window that I need to at least be throwing bullpens. If it continues, I think I'll be good. But I can't really have any delays."

Kershaw reached several salary escalators before the toe injury, which boosted the player option from $5 million to $10 million, though the money seems irrelevant. Kershaw has already made a fortune in his career and his ticket to the Hall of Fame is as good as punched. He's accomplished basically everything a player could ever dream of accomplishing in this game.

Moreso than maybe any other player in the league, Kershaw's decision to play next season will be based on how he feels physically and his desire to continue pitching, and only Kershaw knows that. And he might not know that right now. It might not be until after the season that Kershaw evaluates everything, sits down with his family, and makes a decision. We just don't know.

Prediction: The bet here is Kershaw will decline the player option simply to avoid making an early commitment. Option decisions are due five days after the end of the World Series and, based on the last few offseasons, it would be surprising if Kershaw is ready to commit to playing that quickly. He typically takes a few weeks before making a decision. Kershaw could decline the option, and if he ultimately decides to come back and play in 2025, I'm sure the Dodgers would welcome him back with open arms. The player option isn't a money decision for Kershaw. It's a quality of life decision more than anything. He's earned that.

Blake Snell , San Francisco Giants

Blake Snell SF • SP • #7 ERA 3.52 WHIP 1.12 IP 92 BB 41 K 124 View Profile

Contract situation: $30 million player option for 2025

Snell was the second of the "Boras Four" to sign and, unlike Bellinger and Chapman, his contract includes only one player option. The other two guys each got two player options. Snell won the Cy Young last season! And he still had to settle for a one-year, $32 million contract with what amounts to a $30 million insurance policy for 2025. Free agency isn't what it used to be.

A sluggish start to the season and a pair of groin injuries made it seem likely Snell would pick up his player option, but he's been excellent since coming off the injured list on July 9, including throwing an 11-strikeout no-hitter on Aug. 2 .

Since coming off the injured list, Snell has a 1.45 ERA in 12 starts and 68 1/3 innings, and he's struck out a stellar 36.2% of the batters he's faced. He has been one of the game's premier bat-missers since the day he made his MLB debut. That core skill is still there, and Snell is again showing that when he gets on roll, he's as good as anyone in the league.

Snell turns 32 in December, so this offseason might be his last chance at a significant multi-year contract. Pick up the player option and wait one more year to test free agency, and you're talking about a 33-year-old who is that much closer to his decline years. It's harder to get paid at 33 than 32, and that will undoubtedly factor into Snell's decision.

Also, the $30 million player option will not be paid out entirely in 2025. If Snell picks it up, he'll get $15 million in 2025 with the other $15 million deferred until July 1, 2027. At the end of the day, it's still $30 million, though it will be paid out in such a way that makes the player option a little less desirable to Snell.

Prediction: As long as he stays healthy, Snell declines the player option and leaves the Giants to sign a multi-year contract with another team.

Other notable player options/opt outs

Rhys Hoskins , Milwaukee Brewers : It has been a difficult year for Hoskins, who's hitting .207/.294/.405 with 23 home runs. He missed 2023 with a torn ACL and has had a hard time getting on track in 2024. The market is not kind to righty-hitting, righty-throwing, defensively challenged first basemen on the wrong side of 30. The smart money is on Hoskins picking up his $18 million player option for 2025 (he'll then get another $4 million as part of a buyout of his 2026 mutual option).

Sean Manaea , New York Mets : Manaea has been terrific all season and he took his game to a new level a few weeks ago, when he mimicked Chris Sale and lowered his arm slot . Even before that, he was on track to decline his $13.5 million player option and test free agency. Now it's a slam dunk as long as Manaea makes it through the season healthy.

Jordan Montgomery , Arizona Diamondbacks : Montgomery is the fourth member of the "Boras Four" and he's having the worst season of the four, pitching to a 6.25 ERA in 108 innings and getting demoted to the bullpen late last month. He reached a salary escalator a few weeks ago and his player option for next year is worth $22.5 million. It's a safe bet Montgomery will pick it up.

Robbie Ray , San Francisco Giants: Between Tommy John surgery and his current hamstring injury, Ray has made only eight starts in the last two seasons. His contract, which he signed with the Seattle Mariners following his Cy Young season in 2021, allows him to opt out of the final two years and $50 million this offseason. It stands to reason Ray will pass on the opt out and remain with San Francisco. The Giants surely expected that when they made the trade to get him from Seattle last winter.

Michael Wacha , Kansas City Royals : Very quietly, Wacha has been outstanding for the upstart Royals, pitching to a 3.34 ERA in 25 starts. He has a $16 million player option for next season. Even at age 33, it seems likely Wacha will decline the option and go back into free agency, where a 2-3 year contract could be waiting.