As we get ready to head into Week 2, I'd like to bid a fond farewell to Week 1, which will almost certainly go down as the most bizarre NFL week of the year.
I haven't checked the NFL record book yet, but I believe it was the first opening week ever where a player got handcuffed by police three hours before his game, only to be released a short time later so that he could play in the game where he would score a touchdown and do a celebration that involved a teammate handcuffing him.
As I've always said, there's no better touchdown celebration than fake handcuffing your teammate. OK, so I've never said that, but I might start staying it. I haven't decided.
Anyway, Hill won't have a lot of time to mentally recover from his run-in with police and that's because the Dolphins play on Thursday this week against the Bills at Hard Rock Stadium.
So who's going to win the AFC East showdown? Let's get to the Week 2 picks and find out.
NFL Week 2 picks
Buffalo (1-0) at Miami (1-0)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m ET (Amazon Prime)
We have officially reached my favorite part of the NFL season, which is where I have to ask my wife what our login password is for Amazon, which will be immediately followed by her telling me that she doesn't remember, which will be immediately followed by us resetting it, which will be immediately followed by her setting the new password to something that I'll never remember.
And just for the record, I'm not randomly babbling about Amazon right now. The Bills-Dolphins game will mark the first game of the 2024 season that will be streaming exclusively on Amazon Prime, so make sure you have your passwords ready and don't say I didn't warn you.
As for the game itself, my general rule of thumb when picking a Bills-Dolphins game is to always pick the Bills and that's mostly because of Josh Allen . If there is one team that Allen has absolutely dominated in his career, it's the Dolphins. Miami just hasn't been able to figure out how to stop Allen. At this point, I think 11 actual Dolphins might have a better chance of slowing down Allen.
In Allen's last 12 games against the Dolphins, including the playoffs, he's gone 11-1 against them and the only loss was by two points. He's thrown at least two touchdown passes in 13 straight games against Miami, which is an NFL record for consecutive games with multiple touchdowns against one team. He's averaging 285.8 passing yards per game and 50.6 rushing yards per game in his career against Miami, which makes him just one of two quarterbacks in NFL history to average at least 250 yards passing and 50 yards rushing against a single team.
That being said, Allen did get banged up in Week 1 with a minor injury to his left hand. That's not normally a concerning injury for a QB who throws with his right hand, but it is slightly concerning for a quarterback who has been known to fumble the ball. If Allen can't hold on to the ball when he has two healthy hands, it could be even more difficult to hold on to the ball with just one hand.
As good as Allen has been against the Dolphins, there's no way I'm picking against Mike McDaniel. As I mentioned last week, the Dolphins coach has a career record of 7-0 during the first three weeks of the season and I don't see him picking up his first loss in a home prime-time game.
My biggest problem with the Bills is that they have a revamped secondary this year and I'm not sure how they're going to handle the Dolphins' high-powered offense.
I'm rolling with the Dolphins, unless, of course, several of their key players get detained by police before the game. If that happens, then I might just go ahead and roll with the Bills.
If you've ever played any of the Madden video games, then you know about rookie mode, which is when you set the game on the easiest level. I'm only mentioning that, because that's what the Saints got in Week 1.
Derek Carr looked like an MVP candidate and the Saints looked like the best team in the NFL, BUT -- and this is a big BUT -- they were playing the Panthers , who might be worse than they were last year, which is saying a lot, because they were the worst team in the NFL last year.
This week, we're going to find out if the Saints are for real. Sure, Carr was able to throw for three touchdowns against the Panthers defense, but that's going to be much more difficult to pull off against the Cowboys .
The Cowboys know how to get after the passer -- they had six sacks in Week 1 -- and Carr isn't exactly known to thrive under pressure. Carr faced the lowest pressure rate of any QB in Week 1, so it wasn't a surprise to see him have a big game, but he generally struggles when he has defenders in his face.
Basically, if Carr was an actual Carr, he'd be a Ferrari when he's not facing any pressure, but when he's facing pressure, he's more like a 1989 Plymouth Sundance. I'm not saying that a 1989 Plymouth Sundance is a bad car, but you're not going to the Super Bowl with it. If Carr and the Saints can take down the Cowboys, I promise to never compare Derek Carr to a Plymouth Sundance ever again, but I don't think that's going to happen.
The Cowboys have won 16 straight regular-season games at home and that's one streak I won't be picking against this week.
The pick: Cowboys 30-20 over Saints
Before locking in this week's picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model . The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception . The model enters Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 184-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
If you would have asked me last week to rank the best games of Week 2, this one wouldn't have even been in my top 12, which is saying a lot when you consider the fact that there are only 16 games on the schedule this week. However, I am now oddly intrigued by this matchup after watching the Patriots shock the Bengals .
The Patriots actually impressed me in Week 1, which is weird, because I thought there was a 100% chance this year that I would NOT be using the words "Impressed" and/or "Patriots" in the same sentence, yet here we are. Watching New England win on Sunday was like watching a team coached by Bill Belichick except Belichick wasn't there. The Patriots won because they were disciplined on defense (Classic Belichick) and they ran the ball straight down Cincinnati's throat.
After watching them win, I don't know what to think. I mean, are the Patriots for real? Could they actually be good? WERE WE ALL WRONG ABOUT THEM, AND IF SO, DO WE OWE THEM AN APOLOGY AND IF WE OWE THEM AN APOLOGY, WHERE DO WE SEND IT?
As you can tell, I've completely lost my mind and I have no idea what to make of anything anymore.
On the Seahawks ' end, they also won their opening game, but I wasn't as impressed. In the first half alone, the Seahawks turned the ball over once and got safetied TWICE, but they still won, because Bo Nix didn't realize that you have to throw the ball forward if you want to succeed in the NFL.
That's not a list you want to be on.
After one week, I have no idea how good either of these teams are, but I do know this: The Seahawks have to fly across the country in Week 2 for a game that kicks off at 10 a.m. on their body clocks. The Seahawks are 2-5 in their past seven games that have kicked off at 10 a.m. on their body clocks and I think I just talked myself into picking the Patriots. Yup. I talked myself into picking the Patriots.
When it comes to demoralizing your fan base, there's no team in the NFL that does it better than the Cleveland Browns . Every year, Browns fans go into the season with high hopes, and every year, something kills that hope. I'm not saying Browns fans have given up on the 2024 season after one week, but I am saying that I'm pretty sure they've given up on Deshaun Watson .
If you didn't get to watch Watson play in Week 1, I'll give you a brief rehash:
That's not good.
That also seems bad.
If you want to know what Watson's decision-making was like in Week 1, just consider this: Instead of throwing the ball, he took a sack on a fourth-and-6 play in the second half.
Surely there can't be anything worse happening with him.
I spoke too soon.
If you've ever wondered what it's like to set $230 million on fire, just ask the Browns because that's basically what they've done with Watson. He signed through the 2026 season and if the Browns wanted to get out of his contract after this year, they'd have to take a $172 million dead cap hit.
It's a good thing the Browns exists, because if they didn't, I probably would have spent the past five paragraphs talking about the Jaguars choke job against the Dolphins in Week 1. The Jaguars could have won the game by two touchdowns, but instead they lost.
Remember when I said that no team demoralizes their fan base quite like the Browns, well, the Jaguars are close. Although both teams lost in Week 1, the difference is that the Jaguars actually looked competent for a good chunk of their game.
Right now, the only quarterback in the NFL I trust less than Deshaun Watson is Daniel Jones and if the Browns were playing the Giants this week, I'd pick Cleveland, but they're not.
The award for most embarrassing loss from Week 1 definitely goes to the Bengals, but now that I'm thinking about it, we should have all seen it coming. There's no team in the NFL that's worse at the beginning of the season than the Bengals. Since hiring Zac Taylor in 2019, the Bengals have gone 1-10 in the first two weeks of the season. If you only count the Joe Burrow years, things aren't much better: The Bengals have gone 1-8 with Burrow during the first two weeks of the season.
I don't know what this team does at training camp, but I'm starting to think that they do more camping than training. I mean, the Bengals offense was so bad in Week 1 that I'm halfway convinced that they didn't actually have a training camp this year.
The only upside for the Bengals this week is that if there's one team that brings out the best in them, it's the Chiefs . Joe Burrow might play bad at the beginning of the season, but that's canceled out by the fact that he's always at his best against the Chiefs. Including the playoffs, Burrow has a 3-1 career record against the Chiefs and the Bengals were an underdog in all three of those wins, just like they're going to be an underdog on Sunday.
In his four games against Kansas City, Burrow has averaged 293.75 yards per game while throwing nine touchdown passes compared to just three interceptions (And in case you're wondering, Mahomes has averaged 255.25 yards in those same four games with eight touchdowns and two interceptions).
With the Chiefs coming off one of the most impressive wins of Week 1 and the Bengals coming off one of the worst losses, the obvious pick here seems to be Kansas City, but I hate doing the obvious thing. That's why I never order tacos or bells from Taco Bell. Too obvious.
If Tee Higgins ends up playing, I'll feel a lot more comfortable about this pick, but I'm rolling with Cincinnati whether he's on the field or not. And since every game between Burrow and Mahomes has been decided by exactly three points, I obviously to take the team I'm picking by three.
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Broncos would score 20 points and lose to the Seahawks, and guess what happened? The Broncos scored 20 points and lost to the Seahawks. If there was one thing I was 100% sure about in Week 1, it's that there was no way that a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) was going to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks. As it turns out, Nix is a good quarterback as long as you don't need him to throw down field.
From here on out, the Broncos should just run the ball on every play, and if they do have to throw it, they just need to make sure to keep the throw to nine yards or less.
Worst pick: My worst pick last week was taking the Giants over the Vikings. When I made the pick, I actually felt good about it, but when I started watching the game on Sunday, I knew immediately that was I doomed. The Giants are bad at everything and when you're bad at everything, it's hard to win in the NFL.
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 1: 10-6 SU overall: 10-6
Against the spread in Week 1: 5-9-2 ATS overall: 5-9-2
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably trying to figure out his Amazon password.
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