MLB playoff picture: Who holds division, wild-card tiebreakers that could determine 2024 postseason bracket?

Come Sunday, Sept. 29, the 2024 MLB regular season will be complete, and the 12 postseason berths will have been decided. Alas and alack, MLB and the MLB Players Association agreed to do away with Game 163 tiebreakers as part of the current collective bargaining agreement. That's too bad. Tiebreaker games have given us some all-time great moments, including the Bobby Thomson's Shot Heard 'Round the World and Bucky bleepin' Dent. A big loss for fans of drama, this is.

The league did away with Game 163 tiebreakers to make sure the new best-of-three Wild Card Series fits into the current postseason schedule without pushing the World Series back into mid-November. All ties are broken mathematically now. Here is the tiebreaker formula:

1. Head-to-head record.
2. Intradivision record (i.e. record within the same division).
3. Interdivision record (i.e record against teams outside the division).
4. Record in the last 81 intraleague games (i.e record against teams in the same league).
5. Record in the last 82 intraleague games, plus one until the tie is broken.

Fortunately, head-to-head record takes care of the vast majority of tiebreaker scenarios and we don't have to rack our brains trying to figure out No. 4 or 5 on that checklist. That is how all ties in the standings are broken now though. Game 163 tiebreakers are no more. Long live the Game 163 tiebreaker. (General rule of thumb: More baseball is good, more math is bad.)

The 2022 NL East and 2023 AL West titles were decided via tiebreaker. It is not some rarely used technicality. The tiebreaker can also decide home-field advantage in a postseason series. It's not only used to decide playoff berths or seeding. The tiebreaker is something you would rather have and not need than need and not have.

With all the rules laid out, let's look at the current races and take stock of who holds the tiebreaker over who. It's easiest to break these down team-by-team. Let's get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Won tiebreaker over: Phillies
• Lost tiebreaker to: Braves, Dodgers, Mets
• Tiebreaker TBD: Brewers, Padres

The D-backs lost the season series to the Dodgers, putting them at an even further disadvantage in the NL West race. Arizona's season series with the Padres is tied 5-5 and they will close out the regular season with three games at Chase Field. That will decide who holds the tiebreaker, if not much more than that (it's entirely possible the D-backs and Padres will play each other in the final series of the regular season and then again in the Wild Card Series, all at Chase Field). The Brewers lead the season series over the D-backs and they'll play four games in Arizona from Sept. 19-22. It's very unlikely that tiebreaker will be needed though. Milwaukee is going to win the NL Central and the division winner gets home-field advantage over a wild-card team, regardless of record. The D-backs would have to beat out the Dodgers to win the NL West for the tiebreaker against the Brewers to matter, and even then it would only be used to decide home-field advantage in a postseason series.

Atlanta Braves

• Won tiebreaker over: Diamondbacks, Phillies
• Lost tiebreaker to: Brewers, Padres
• Tiebreaker TBD: Dodgers, Mets

The Braves are a longshot to catch the Phillies for the NL East title at this point, though they did win the season series, so life is a tiny little bit easier there. They're also unlikely to catch the Dodgers. In the unlikely event they do, that tiebreaker will be decided in the final game of their season series Monday night. Atlanta's season series with the Mets is tied 5-5. They'll play three hugely important games at Truist Park from Sept. 24-26. The tiebreaker gave the Braves the NL East title over the Mets in 2022. There's a non-zero chance the tiebreaker gives one of those teams the third wild-card spot and sends the other home this year.

Baltimore Orioles

• Won tiebreaker over: Royals
• Lost tiebreaker to: Astros, Guardians
• Tiebreaker TBD: Twins, Yankees

It's all about the AL East for the O's. Baltimore leads the season series 6-4 over the Yankees and the two teams have one three-game series remaining (Sept. 24-26 at Yankee Stadium). The O's need to win just one of those three games to clinch the tiebreaker. The same goes for the Twins. The Orioles lead the season series 3-0 over Minnesota and need to win just one of their remaining three head-to-head games (Sept. 27-29 at Target Field) to clinch the tiebreaker, which is likely only to be used to determine home-field advantage, not a postseason spot.

Boston Red Sox

• Won tiebreaker over: Mariners, Royals
• Lost tiebreaker to: Astros, Guardians, Orioles, Tigers, Yankees
• Tiebreaker TBD: Twins

Boston's three-game series with the Twins at Fenway Park from Sept. 20-22 might be their last chance to move into wild-card position, and the Red Sox need to sweep the three games to get the tiebreaker. There's no sugarcoating it: Boston's situation is dire. They need to win a lot of games regardless of opponent.

Cleveland Guardians

• Won tiebreaker over: Orioles, Tigers, Twins
• Lost tiebreaker to: Royals, Yankees
• Tiebreaker TBD: Astros

The Guardians have a four-game lead in the loss column over the Astros for the AL's No. 2 seed and thus a Wild Card Series bye. Those two teams will close out the regular season with three games at Progressive Field, and Houston leads that season series 2-1. Cleveland would need to sweep that series to clinch the tiebreaker, but, of course, sweeping that series makes it unlikely they'll need the tiebreaker to determine the No. 2 seed. The Guardians are four games up on Kansas City but that is functionally a three-game lead because the Royals have the tiebreaker. Cleveland needs to finish ahead of the Royals to win the division. The tie goes to the Royals.

Detroit Tigers

• Won tiebreaker over: Mariners, Red Sox
• Lost tiebreaker to: Royals, Twins
• Tiebreaker TBD: None

Good news and bad news. The good news is the Tigers have the tiebreaker over the Mariners and Red Sox, two teams they need to outlast to get a wild-card spot. The bad news is the Tigers lost the tiebreaker to the Royals and Twins, and they'll need to pass at least one of those teams to get a wild-card spot. The Tigers go to Kauffman Stadium for three games against the Royals this week. Kansas City already has the tiebreaker, but winning those head-to-head games is Detroit's best chance to gain ground in the wild-card race.

Kansas City Royals

• Won tiebreaker over: Guardians, Tigers
• Lost tiebreaker to: Astros, Orioles, Twins, Yankees
• Tiebreaker TBD: None

The Royals host the Tigers for three games beginning Monday, and although Kansas City holds the tiebreaker, this series might be Detroit's best chance to gain ground in the wild-card race. Kansas City wants to bury them this week. The Royals are four games behind Cleveland for the AL Central title, but it's functionally a three-game lead because Kansas City has the tiebreaker. They only need to tie the Guardians, not actually pass them.

Houston Astros

• Won tiebreaker over: Orioles, Royals, Tigers, Red Sox
• Lost tiebreaker to: Twins, Yankees
• Tiebreaker TBD: Guardians, Mariners

The most important tiebreaker is the one with Seattle. The Astros have a five-game lead in the loss column in the AL West, though the Mariners lead the season series 6-4. Those two teams will play three games at Minute Maid Park next week. The Astros need to sweep to clinch the tiebreaker, but if they sweep that series, they're not going to need the tiebreaker anyway. They'll win the division outright. Houston has a chance to catch the Guardians for the AL's No. 2 seed and thus a Wild Card Series bye. They close out the regular season with three games at Progressive Field, so getting a bye is still possible even though Cleveland is four games up on the Astros at the moment.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Won tiebreaker over: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets
• Lost tiebreaker to: Phillies, Padres
• Tiebreaker TBD: Braves, None

The Dodgers are in good position to win their third straight NL West title (though the race isn't over yet). For them, the most important tiebreakers right now are with the Brewers and Phillies. Those tiebreakers could determine home-field advantage in a postseason series and, more importantly, whether one team gets a wild-card bye or has to play the extra round.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Won tiebreaker over: Braves
• Lost tiebreaker to: Dodgers, Padres
• Tiebreaker TBD: Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies

Nothing is clinched yet, but the Brewers have the NL Central title in the bag. The Dodgers and Phillies tiebreakers are the only ones that matter to Milwaukee because those could determine the No. 2 seed and thus a Wild Card Series bye. The Brewers are down 3-0 in the season series to the Phillies and they'll start a three-game series at American Family Field on Monday. If Milwaukee loses one game, the tiebreaker goes to Philadelphia. If the Brewers sweep and the season series finishes tied 3-3, then the tiebreaker kicks down to each team's record within its division, and right now the Brewers (30-19) have the edge over the Phillies (27-18). Both teams have division games remaining though. Those records are not final.

Minnesota Twins

• Won tiebreaker over: Astros, Mariners, Royals, Tigers
• Lost tiebreaker to: Guardians, Yankees
• Tiebreaker TBD: Orioles, Red Sox

The Twins are in good shape tiebreaker-wise because they've already clinched it over the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers. That's three of the four teams they're competing with for a wild-card spot. The other is the Red Sox, and Minnesota will visit Fenway Park for three games next week. They lead the season series 2-1 and really only need to go 1-2 in that Fenway Park series to clinch the tiebreaker. If the season series finishes in a 3-3 tie, the next tiebreaker is record within the division, and Minnesota (28-20) has a big advantage over Boston (21-22).

New York Mets

• Won tiebreaker over: Diamondbacks, Padres
• Lost tiebreaker to: None
• Tiebreaker TBD: Braves, Phillies

The Mets have already clinched the season series over the D-backs and Padres, which is excellent work. The Braves tiebreaker figures to be most important though. That tiebreaker could be used to decide one postseason spot, sending one team to the Wild Card Series and the other home. The season series is tied 5-5 and the Mets and Braves will play three games at Truist Park from Sept. 24-26. That will be an enormous series and not just because the winner clinches the tiebreaker.

New York Yankees

• Won tiebreaker over: Astros, Guardians, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins
• Lost tiebreaker to: None
• Tiebreaker TBD: Orioles, Mariners

The Yankees took care of business during the regular season and have the tiebreaker over the Astros and Guardians in case it's needed to determine a Wild Card Series bye, and also over the Royals, Tigers, and Twins in case the bottom falls out and the Yankees wind up battling for a wild-card spot (that is unlikely at this point). The O's tiebreaker is the important one. The Yankees are trying to hold off the Orioles for the AL East title and New York will host Baltimore for three games next week. The Orioles lead the season series 6-4, so the Yankees must sweep that series to clinch the tiebreaker. That said, if the Yankees sweep that series, then they're almost certainly going to win the AL East outright and not need the tiebreaker.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Won tiebreaker over: Dodgers, Padres
• Lost tiebreaker to: Braves, Diamondbacks
• Tiebreaker TBD: Brewers, Mets

At this point, if the Phillies need the tiebreaker to win the NL East, then they have much bigger problems. They're well positioned to win their first division title since 2011. The Brewers and Dodgers tiebreakers are important because those could decide a Wild Card Series bye. The Phillies have the tiebreaker over the Dodgers and they only need to win once in three games when they visit the Brewers this week. Philadelphia is in great shape tiebreaker-wise and overall.

San Diego Padres

• Won tiebreaker over: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers
• Lost tiebreaker to: Mets, Phillies
• Tiebreaker TBD: D-backs

The NL West race is not over! The Padres are four games behind the Dodgers in the loss column, but they hold the tiebreaker, so it's really more like a three-game lead, plus they'll play three games at Dodger Stadium from Sept. 24-26. That's the second-to-last series of the regular season. If the Padres are within three games going into that series, they'll control their destiny in the NL West. As for the wild-card race, San Diego closes out the regular season with three games in Arizona. The season series is tied 5-5. The winner of that series gets the tiebreaker and potentially much more.

Seattle Mariners

• Won tiebreaker over: None
• Lost tiebreaker to: Orioles, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins
• Tiebreaker TBD: Astros, Yankees

For all intents and purposes, it's AL West title or bust for the Mariners. It will be too difficult to climb into a wild-card spot, especially since Seattle managed to lose the season series to every single team they're competing with for a wild-card berth. The season series with the Yankees is tied 2-2 and they play three games at T-Mobile Park this week. That tiebreaker is essentially meaningless with the Yankees up 10 in the loss column on Seattle, however. All that matters now is the Astros. The Mariners lead the season series 6-4 over Houston and only need to win once when they visit Minute Maid Park for three games next week. Really though, Seattle needs to sweep that series to have a chance to win the division title. The Mariners are up against it right now.