Penn State vs. Illinois odds, spread, line: 2024 college football picks, Week 5 predictions from proven model

The No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) will play their Big Ten opener when they host the No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0) on Saturday night. Penn State struggled in its 34-27 win over Bowling Green two weeks ago, but it is coming off a convincing 56-0 win over Kent State. Illinois is looking to take down another ranked opponent after beating then-No. 19 Kansas and then-No. 22 Nebraska. The Nittany Lions picked up a 30-13 road win against the Fighting Illini last season.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions are favored by 17.5 points in the latest Penn State vs. Illinois odds, while the over/under is 47.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Illinois vs. Penn State picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Illinois vs. Penn State . You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the game:

• Penn State vs. Illinois spread: Penn State -17.5
• Penn State vs. Illinois over/under: 47.5 points
• Penn State vs. Illinois money line: Penn State: -1000, Illinois: +636
• Penn State vs. Illinois picks: See picks here

Why Penn State can cover

Penn State is getting set for the third game of a four-game homestand that began with wins over Bowling Green and Kent State. The Nittany Lions covered the spread as 49-point favorites in their 56-0 win over Kent State last week, as junior quarterback Drew Allar completed 17 of 21 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for 26 yards and a touchdown on five carries.

Allar has completed more than 70% of his passes for 729 yards and eight touchdowns this season. Junior running back Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 314 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 8.5 yards per carry. Penn State has covered the spread at an 11-3-1 clip in its last 15 games against Big Ten opponents. See which team to pick here.

Why Illinois can cover

Illinois has been one of the most underrated teams in college football so far this season, picking up ranked wins over then-No. 19 Kansas and then-No. 22 Nebraska during its 4-0 start. The Fighting Illini were 9-point underdogs in their 31-24 win over the Cornhuskers last week. Junior quarterback Luke Altmyer completed 21 of 27 passes for 215 yards and four touchdowns, giving him 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season.

Sophomore running back Kaden Feagin has 242 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while three of his teammates have gone over 100 yards. Penn State has already struggled to cover the spread as a big favorite once this season, beating Bowling Green by just one touchdown as a 34-point favorite earlier this month. Illinois has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 games dating back to last season. See which team to pick here.

How to make Penn State vs. Illinois picks

The model has simulated Illinois vs. Penn State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Penn State vs. Illinois, and which side of the spread is hitting well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Illinois vs. Penn State spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that's up well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception , and find out.