Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds, spread: 2024 college football picks, Week 5 predictions from proven model
By CBS Sports Staff,
23 days ago
The Michigan State Spartans (3-1) will try to pull off a shocking upset when they host the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) on Saturday night. Michigan State is also looking to bounce back from its first loss of the season after falling to Boston College last week. Ohio State is hitting the road for the first time this season after recording its third blowout win of the campaign in a 49-14 final against Marshall. The Buckeyes have won eight straight meetings between these teams.
Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on Saturday at Spartan Stadium. Ohio State is favored by 23.5 points in the latest Michigan State vs. Ohio State odds, while the over/under is 48.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks, you'll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.
Michigan State has won both of its home games this season to go along with a 27-24 win at Maryland in its Big Ten opener. The Spartans have struggled with red-zone efficiency this season (No. 112 of 133 FBS schools), so a turnaround in that category could lead to a more competitive game on Saturday. Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles has thrown for 891 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 222 passing yards per game.
His best performance of the season came in the Big Ten opener against Maryland, completing 24 of 39 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns. Senior running back Kay'ron Lynch-Adams leads the rushing attack with 271 yards and a touchdown, while junior Nate Carter has added 207 rushing yards. Michigan State has covered the spread in four of its last six games played on a Saturday. See which team to pick here.
Why Ohio State can cover
Ohio State has cruised to three blowout wins to open the season, and it has dominated this head-to-head series. The Buckeyes have won eight consecutive meetings overall along with nine straight games in East Lansing. They have been winning those games with margin, covering the spread in seven consecutive matchups.
The Buckeyes rank third nationally in scoring offense (52.3 points per game) and fifth in total offense (552.0 yards per game). They have scored touchdowns on all 11 opportunities in the red zone, and they scored four touchdowns of 40-plus yards last week. Senior quarterback Will Howard has 795 passing yards and six touchdowns, while junior running back Quinshon Judkins has a team-high 336 rushing yards and five scores. See which team to pick here.
How to make Michigan State vs. Ohio State picks
The model has simulated Ohio State vs. Michigan State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
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