Indiana Fever offseason outlook: How Caitlin Clark and team might regroup for 2025 and beyond

From the second Caitlin Clark declared for the 2024 WNBA Draft, the Indiana Fever knew their future was bright. But even those inside the organization may not have expected just how fast the No. 1 overall pick would change their fortunes on the court. Despite a 2-9 start, Clark led the Fever to their first playoff appearance since 2016, and turned the team into one of the hottest attractions in all of sports.

Over the course of a summer, Clark rewrote the record books and established herself as the best playmaker in the league.

She set the single-game assist record, became the first rookie to post a triple-double (then got another one), broke the single-season assist record, rookie scoring record and rookie 3-point record. Her 19.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game were good for seventh in the league in scoring and first in assists, and she became the first rookie, and fourth player, to average 15-5-5 for a season.

Already, Clark has a fourth-place MVP finish to her name, and she will soon be named Rookie of the Year, perhaps unanimously, An All-WNBA First Team honor will surely follow, as well as an All-Rookie selection.

The Fever's season came to an end on Wednesday when they were eliminated from the playoffs in the first round by the Connecticut Sun -- a tough, physical, veteran team that showed the young Fever how much they still have to grow to become true contenders.

With Clark leading the way alongside fellow No. 1 pick Aliyah Boston , it would be a surprise if the Fever don't reach that level. How soon they do could depend a great deal on what the team does this offseason.

Season at a glance

• Record: 20-20 (No. 6 seed)
• Offensive rating: 104.2 (third)
• Defensive rating: 107.5 (11th)
• Net rating: minus-3.4 (sixth)

Biggest strength

Offense

It took some time for Clark to acclimate to the league and for her teammates to acclimate to her style. But once they did, the Fever quickly became an elite offense. After the Olympics, they had a 109.6 offensive rating, shot 39.9% from behind the arc and boasted a 58.2 true shooting percentage, and had a 98.68 pace. All of those marks ranked first in the league in that span, save for pace, where they were second.

Biggest weakness

Defense and turnovers

As great as the Fever were on offense, they were equally terrible on defense. One key factor is that they turned the ball over like crazy (18.8% turnover rate, ninth in the league), which allowed other teams to get easy baskets on the break. Head coach Christie Sides at times bemoaned a lack of toughness, both physical and mental. There were far too many breakdowns, and too little commitment on that side of the ball.

Key free agents

• Temi Fagbenle
• Kelsey Mitchell
• Erica Wheeler

While there are a number of players whose contracts are not guaranteed for next season, the Fever only have three players on the roster who will be free agents in the winter. Mitchell and Wheeler will be unrestricted, while Fagbenle will be restricted.

Mitchell, of course, is the most important of the bunch. Her play post-Olympics, when she averaged 23.4 points per game -- good for second in the league in that span -- was one of the key reasons the team took off and clinched a playoff spot. She can create offense for herself, which helps lift Clark's burden, but is also an elite catch-and-shoot threat off the ball. The Fever will surely look to bring her back, and may even use the core designation to ensure it happens.

Next, let's examine Fagbenle's situation. After staying overseas since 2019, she returned to the league this season and quickly became an important part of the Fever's rotation because of how well she fit with Clark. In fact, with the team's season on the line, she was moved into the starting lineup for Game 2 against the Sun. She is a restricted free agent, so the Fever can match any offer she receives, and she will likely be back.

Wheeler is a bigger question mark. There is no doubt that her leadership was important in the locker room this season, but she played sparingly during the team's post-Olympics surge. Will the team value chemistry and continuity? Or look to bring in a new back-up point guard? Wheeler was the team's second-highest earner this season at $202,000, so if she departs that would open up significant cap space.

The NaLyssa Smith situation

Smith is not a free agent. The Fever picked up the fourth-year option on her rookie-scale contract back in April, and she has a protected (guaranteed) salary of $91,000 for 2025. However, there is a good chance that she is not back with the Fever next season.

Though she started 37 of 40 games this season, she was often not on the floor in crunch time and got benched for the must-win Game 2 in Connecticut. She has not yet developed a reliable 3-point shot, but also cannot play the five by herself, which limited the Fever's lineup flexibility. When she was on the court, the Fever had a minus-9.0 net rating, and when she sat, they had a plus 6.7 net rating. That differential was the biggest on the team by a mile.

It's clear that Smith will not be part of the long-term future in Indianapolis. She posted what can easily be read as a farewell message on social media and removed the Fever from her bios on those sites.

Smith is a talented player who just turned 24 years old. There will almost certainly be teams willing to buy low on a former No. 2 overall pick. If the Fever can send her somewhere for a fresh start, while getting a better fit for the roster in return, that would be best for both parties.

Draft outlook

The Fever will not be in the lottery for the first time since the 2017 draft. After earning the No. 6 seed in the playoffs, they would be in line for the No. 7 overall pick in a normal year, but the league is adding an expansion team this offseason, the Golden State Valkyries. While no details have been released regarding the expansion draft or where the Valkyries will pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, they will most likely receive the No. 5 pick, which slots them after the lottery teams and before the playoff teams. In that scenario, the Fever would then be bumped down to the No. 8 overall pick.

This draft class doesn't have as many high-profile stars as 2024, but there will still be some talented players available in the middle of the first round. While the Fever have their core in place, there are many areas of the roster they need to strengthen.

Defense will be a key focus, as that was the team's biggest weakness this season. Of course, being able to shoot and run the floor in transition will also be important in the Fever's high-pace offensive system. Frontcourt depth could be necessary depending on what happens with Smith and Fagbenle. Likewise, they may need a new back-up point guard if Wheeler doesn't return.

The good news for the Fever is the draft comes after free agency and the rest of the offseason, so they'll have a much better idea of their specific needs at that point. Here are a few players that may be available at No. 8 and could be a fit:

• Janiah Barker -- F, UCLA

Barker is a talented post player who showed some promise with her outside shot in her first two seasons at Texas A&M (36.2% on 94 total attempts). She transferred to UCLA for her junior season, where she'll join a talented roster that projects to be one of the best in the country. Though she may not declare for the 2025 draft, she'll be eligible to do so.

• Sonia Citron -- G, Notre Dame

A big, versatile guard, Citron does a little bit of everything for Notre Dame. She's a career 37.0% 3-point shooter in college and has averaged at least 2.2 assists and 1.6 steals per game in all three of her seasons in South Bend. Citron hopes to lead the Fighting Irish on another deep tournament run, and perhaps play herself into the first round of the draft in the process.

• Te-Hina Paopao -- G, South Carolina

After helping South Carolina win a national championship last season, Paopao decided to use her extra year of eligibility to stay in Columbia. She's already grown into one of the best shooters in the country, as she shot 46.8% from behind the arc last season, including a stunning 52.3% on open catch-and-shoot looks.