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Cardinals vs. Commanders prediction, odds, line, spread, time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 4 best bets from model
By CBS Sports Staff,
21 hours ago
The Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of a three-game homestand and look to finish 2-1 in that span as they host the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon. Arizona (1-2) fell to Detroit, 20-10, while Washington (2-1) put on an aerial display on Monday Night Football, defeating Cincinnati, 38-33. The Commanders have won three of the last four meetings, including a 20-16 victory at home in Week 1 of the 2023 campaign.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels , the No. 2 overall pick in April's 2024 NFL Draft, appears to be the real deal. He completed 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 39 yards and another score on 12 attempts in Monday night's victory. His two passing touchdowns were the first of his brief NFL career, but he's already scored three times on the ground.
Running back Brian Robinson Jr . is headed for a heavier workload on Sunday with Austin Ekeler out with a concussion. Robinson has been effective thus far, with 206 yards rushing and 56 receiving in addition to two touchdowns. There should be a prime opportunity for the Commanders to move the ball on the ground as the Cardinals rank in the bottom half of the league allowing more than 123 yards rushing per game. See which team to pick here .
Why the Cardinals can cover
The Commanders have given up nearly 256 yards passing per game, second most in the league behind Baltimore. Arizona should exploit Washington's thin secondary with quarterback Kyler Murray and rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr . In three games, Murray has thrown for 635 yards and five scores, while rushing for 161 on the ground. He has connected three times in the end zone with Harrison over the last two games and with tight end Trey McBride lout due to a concussion, Harrison should see plenty of targets again this week.
Veteran running back James Conner has been another bright spot for the Cardinals thus far, rushing for 189 yards and two touchdowns. In a must-win game to keep early season momentum, the Cardinals defense will have to slow the former Arizona State and LSU QB Daniels. See which team to pick here .
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